Mets thinking about a fifth year for Bay
in [New York Mets]
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From: ruben on 21 Dec 2009 23:51 On Mon, 21 Dec 2009 20:27:19 -0800, jonathan wrote: >> > Gee, maybe they >> > can deal Francouer and Oliver Perez for Zack Greinke. >> >> Strangely enough, I'm not certain that is a good trade. I doubt >> Greinke would pitch well in NY >> >> Ruben > > I agree. He knows what FIP is. Dan Warthen would be completely > confused. He'd want him to just try to 'throw hard'. Seriously Jon. When you read his interviews ... he doesn't like being in critical crowd situations...and says so plainly
From: ruben on 22 Dec 2009 00:18 On Mon, 21 Dec 2009 20:44:05 -0800, jonathan wrote: > On Dec 21, 11:38 pm, ru...(a)mrbrklyn.com wrote: >> On Mon, 21 Dec 2009 20:02:39 -0800, jonathan wrote: >> > Red Sox nation understands that >> > Cameron has actually been worth more wins then Bay the last two >> > years. >> >> Say again? I didn't really understand this when they sited this >> reasoning. Mike Cameron hasn't hit Bay's average numbers in his best >> year. Unless you think the defense is all the difference, there is no >> way I'd classify Cameron with Jason Bay. This might have been a good >> move for Boston, but not just based on the baseball merits of those two >> players. >> >> Ruben > > Here you go . . . > > http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bay-vs-cameron OK - Read it and seriously don't agree. If I needed a CF I'd think about it, but frankly I have a really good one. Cameron better than Thome? and Ortiz. Convenient to compare him to two aging DH's, talk about "If you need a right handed bat" and then discuss the wonders of Cameron's defense as pushing into a better WARs that Bay Thome and Ortiz. I don't agree with this analysis at ALL. If I needed a CF with Defense, Cameron would be an aging and over paid option. It so happens the Mets need a damn Bat in LF and if he isn't as bad as Shawn Green, Bay and his 140 OPS+ is the type of bat we would need. FWIW http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomeji01.shtml#2002-2009- sum:batting_standard Jim Thome Batting Stats for Years 2002 to 2009 Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2002-2009 1054 4353 3546 670 952 172 6 282 756 2 8 744 1075 .268 .396 .559 .955 146 1982 64 29 0 34 94 Average 132 544 443 84 119 22 1 35 94 0 1 93 134 248 8 4 0 4 12 per 162 games 163 671 547 104 147 27 1 44 117 1 2 115 166 306 10 5 0 6 15 Now from the BoSx POV they are running Jacoby Ellsbury out in CF. He's 25. If the Sox scouting is saying he is not going to improve much then the Cameron signing would make a lot of sense. But they are still missing a thumper in the middle of their line up and that wouldn't stop me from resigning Bay. Ruben
From: jonathan on 22 Dec 2009 10:55 > > OK - Read it and seriously don't agree. If I needed a CF I'd think about You're entitled to your opinion, however keep in mind this is a discussion of value as in contributes to wins in all phases of the game. > it, but frankly I have a really good one. Cameron better than Thome? and > Ortiz. Convenient to compare him to two aging DH's, talk about "If you > need a right handed bat" and then discuss the wonders of Cameron's > defense as pushing into a better WARs that Bay Thome and Ortiz. > > I don't agree with this analysis at ALL. If I needed a CF with Defense, > Cameron would be an aging and over paid option. It so happens the Mets > need a damn Bat in LF and if he isn't as bad as Shawn Green, Bay and his > 140 OPS+ is the type of bat we would need. That's all well and good. The point of this analysis is that Cameron makes up the difference in offensive production with his defense and that at this stage of the game, Cameron's overall game is a better value then Bay is. I realize the Mets don't exactly have plus defenders in the corner OF positions now, so Bay isn't much of a downgrade. > Now from the BoSx POV they are running Jacoby Ellsbury out in CF. He's 25. > If the Sox scouting is saying he is not going to improve much then the > Cameron signing would make a lot of sense. But they are still missing a > thumper in the middle of their line up and that wouldn't stop me from resigning > Bay. No, from the Red Sox point of view, the point is to win games. You do that by scoring more runs then you allow. If that means you reduce the amount of runs you allow relative to what you score and that's a more sound investment then adding to the runs you score, then that's what they will do. The Red Sox are using run differential as opposed to runs scored or runs allowed as the critical metric. In this case defense is cheaper then offense. To me, this is an extremely intelligent approach. I don't care if I win a game 2-1 or 10-9 . . . it still counts as 1 win on the scoreboard. They're about to get Cameron, who, from a winning games standpoint, is basically equal to Bay, for the same price for 2 years as Bay will cost for 1 year. That frees up resources to be used elsewhere, like John Lackey. Frankly, that's the kind of creative thinking and analysis the Mets need. Believe me, the Red Sox have this analyzed far beyond what you and I can do and I'm willing to be they'll be proven correct at the end.
From: jonathan on 22 Dec 2009 12:04 On Dec 21, 11:48 pm, ru...(a)mrbrklyn.com wrote: > On Mon, 21 Dec 2009 20:05:29 -0800, jonathan wrote: > >> I don't want to be put in a position where I have to over defend > >> Minaya. He's not a god, but he sure isn't as incompetent as people make > >> him out > > > I don't think he's incompetent. I think he's overmatched at this point. > > I agree. Especially the way the ownership is handling this. There are NO > SHORT LEASHES, IMO. If someone is on a short leesh, just LET HIM GO. > > Ruben I agree with that. So my basic point is that they should fire him because I don't have any confidence he's going to make good decisions given all of the factors we've discussed.
From: jonathan on 22 Dec 2009 12:05
On Dec 21, 11:18 pm, ru...(a)mrbrklyn.com wrote: > On Mon, 21 Dec 2009 18:33:46 -0800, jonathan wrote: > >> Overall 3.64 ERA and not much success in AA. Definitely seems to need > >> AA seasoning but his clock is ticking at age 22. 12 base runners per > >> nine innings isn't great. > > > How is his clock ticking at 22? I know you think all pitchers should > > peak at 18, but we can't all be Dwight Gooden. His peripheral numbers > > were very good. He dominated in Brooklyn. I don't know what you were > > watching. I expect him to come back to AA and pitch very well. He > > shouldn't get any higher then Buffalo this year, but I'm afraid the Mets > > will rush him and hurt his development. > > Ok - He is first going to enter AA at 23 which projects him on the ML > level for 25...which is not insane. That is a little old for a rookie, > although not crazy old. He needs to really steamroll though double A, > IMO to show me that he is destined to be a genuine front line starter. > If he is in AA again next season at 24, his likelihood of becoming a good > front line pitcher, IMO, greatly diminishes. > > That is what I mean that time is ticking. He needs to establish himself > this season, IMO, on the minor league level. > > Ruben I agree with that. I think a strong season in AA would be a good springboard for him. |