Mets thinking about a fifth year for Bay
in [New York Mets]
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From: Ruben Safir on 21 Dec 2009 03:42 On Sun, 20 Dec 2009 04:30:45 -0500, tmp wrote: >> NO! Who would. But I don't want Bay signed for 6 years either. >> >> harlan > > Well, get ready to watch Angel next year then... I'm not worried about next year. I'm worried about the long term future of this team.
From: Ruben Safir on 21 Dec 2009 03:54 On Fri, 18 Dec 2009 12:02:12 -0800, jonathan wrote: > One of any player is not going to make this team better. > > IF everybody is healthy and IF Oliver Perez, John Maine, and Mike > Pelfrey pitch better and IF Jeff Francoeur can be a league-average > offensive player and IF Luis Castillo can basically repeat 2009 and IF > the bench and the bullpen are better and IF they can come up with some > combination at C that at least is league average . . . maybe this team > can win 90 games. hmm. I agree but the situation is more complex than that. In truth, we might not know what we are going to get next season and what we get might largely depend on pitching. The team was devastated by injuries. I think it likely that Reyes, and Betran come back to the line up as strong as ever. I think it is likely to see a marginally better output by Murph. And I'm all but certain that Wright will return to form. So the addition of Bay might be very significant. Its the pitching that rally has me worried and I'm very concerned about the pitching coach. If Pelfry doesn't have a break out year and Main and Perez give us repeats of last season..then it is hard to see how the team can compete. But the real weakness is a lack of development, and that can't be remedied in a single season and if signing Bay means giving up draft picks, it might be hard to swallow. If FMart, Ike et al don't quickly pan out, and they aren't supported by more prospects, it will be tough going for another five years. Ruben Ruben
From: tmp on 21 Dec 2009 04:29 Ruben Safir wrote: > On Sun, 20 Dec 2009 04:30:45 -0500, tmp wrote: > > >>> NO! Who would. But I don't want Bay signed for 6 years either. >>> >>> harlan >> Well, get ready to watch Angel next year then... > > I'm not worried about next year. I'm worried about the long term future > of this team. All we got is one year at a time. It's clear by now that this Mets organization is not capable of running the kind of baseball operation that most of us would like to see - with a strong minor league organization, a focus on teaching baseball fundamentals, good scouting and drafting, etc. There's nothing I'd like to see more than some kind of long term plan. But it ain't happening with this bunch.
From: jonathan on 21 Dec 2009 08:21 > > I agree but the situation is more complex than that. In truth, we might > not know what we are going to get next season and what we get might > largely depend on pitching. I don't disagree. My point was that Maine, Pelfrey, and Perez pitching better are as critical as any other factor. The other thing that would help is if Maine and Perez actually made 60 starts and learned how to get out of the 5th inning. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening. > > The team was devastated by injuries. I think it likely that Reyes, and > Betran come back to the line up as strong as ever. I think it is likely There's plenty of evidence that would agree with your assessment. > to see a marginally better output by Murph. And I'm all but certain that > Wright will return to form. So the addition of Bay might be very There's nothing wrong with Wright that a little luck wouldn't have fixed. The truth is when you break down his numbers, his season wasn't as bad as many suggest. I would have done the work but Rob Neyer already did it for me :-) "Prior to 2009, Wright averaged 29 home runs per season. He was consistent, too: 27-26-30-33. He's always been consistent. In his four previous seasons, Wright's batting average and on-base percentage and slugging percentage never strayed far from his career averages. Over the course of four years, he firmly established himself as a . 310/.390/.530 sort of hitter. You could set your watch by the guy. Until 2009. Oh, his batting average and on-base percentage were still dead on target, same as usual. He hit 40 doubles, as usual. But the home runs disappeared. Instead of hitting 30 home runs, Wright hit 10. Which is what has Klapisch all worked up. Is Flushing's new yard the problem, though? Wright hit only five homers there ... but that means he hit only five homers on the road, too. I can't get inside his head, but I'm not sure it was Wright's head that kept him from hitting more homers in road games. For what it's worth, Wright's line-drive rate was the highest of his career (by an eyelash) and his fly-ball rate was down slightly. The outlier was his home runs per fly ball, which was just seven percent, compared to roughly 16 percent entering the season. So either his fly balls weren't going as far as usual, or they were simply flying to the wrong part of the outfield. Yes, the deeper dimensions in the new ballpark probably played a part. My guess is that if you accounted for the ballpark and the time Wright spent on the disabled list and poor luck, you could reasonably push him to 20 home runs. Which isn't 30. But if he'd hit 20, nobody would be worrying too much about him. So I'm not going to worry. Not yet. In 2009, there were more home runs hit by right-handed batters in Mets home games than in road games. Sometimes the statistics trick us, and sometimes our eyes do. I'm willing to bet that David Wright's pre-2009 body of work shows up again in 2010." > significant. Its the pitching that rally has me worried and I'm very > concerned about the pitching coach. If Pelfry doesn't have a break out The pitching coach is an idiot. From everything I can tell his knowledge of pitching is stuck around 1985. Even Peterson isn't as cutting edge as these guys: http://www.nationalpitching.net/ - but I'd still take him. Warthen is using betamax; Peterson is on DVD, and these guys are BluRay . . . to make an analogy. > year and Main and Perez give us repeats of last season..then it is hard > to see how the team can compete. The biggest problem is that neither guy shows any trending toward actually becoming a reliable 200 IP major league starter. Neither one of these guys has EVER thrown 200 IP in a professional season. When you consider they have a combined 19 seasons in professional baseball, that becomes even more glaring. Say what you want about Mike Pelfrey, because he definitely regressed, but he at least has a 200 IP season already in 4 years of pro ball. I know that sounds simplistic and some people will point to 'inning eaters' or some bullshit like that, but the truth is that in the game today, if you can throw 200 IP in a season, it means you're 1. healthy enough to make 30+ starts, and 2. good enough to stay in those starts long enough to average the 6+ innings you need. > > But the real weakness is a lack of development, and that can't be > remedied in a single season and if signing Bay means giving up draft > picks, it might be hard to swallow. I know you're obsessed with losing draft picks, and I agree with you . . . BUT . . . do you have any real confidence this group will do anything with those picks? Seriously? Their draft record is horrendous so far. Omar has had 5 drafts. 2005 Pelfrey (1) - Jury still out, but at least he made the big leagues. Niese (7) - most likely won't be anything more then a fringe starter, but I hope I'm wrong Parnell (9) - middle reliever Thole (13) - there's still hope The rest of the top 10 in that draft never made it out of A ball except for Drew Butera who got traded to the Twins in the Castillo deal and is at best a 3rd catcher. 2006 Mulvey (2) - fringe major league pitcher Smith (3) - middle reliever Murphy (13) - most likely a bench/platoon player Stoner (16) - fringe major league pitcher Again, the rest of the top 10 hasn't made it out of A ball. 2007 Kunz (1) - maybe will be a major league middle reliever At least Eric Niesen (3), Stephen Clyne (3), Zachary Lutz (5), and Lucas Duda (7) have made it out of A ball. Of course, none are considered big time prospects and given the Mets reputation for rushing prospects to make them look more appealing . . . 2008 Nobody yet, but at least given THREE first round picks Omar had some success. Ike Davis tore up AA and I actually believe they may have a player there. His BB/K rate is actually pretty good for a Mets prospect. He should get a season at AA but more likely the Mets will rush him to the big leagues when they realize Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis can't cut it. Brad Holt should start at AA but I'm anticipating the Mets will rush him too because they're so thin with arms. Reese Havens had a nice year in high A and it looks like he's finally healthy. If he starts well at AA he could see Buffalo by the end of the year. Oh wait, these are the Mets. He'll be at CitiField by June. I like Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3) - the Mets don't draft many OF who can actually hit. I also think Josh Satin (6) could be interesting although it's likely he won't hit for enough power. Hard to tell what 2009 brought, but the early returns are not promising. > > If FMart, Ike et al don't quickly pan out, and they aren't supported by > more prospects, it will be tough going for another five years. It really doesn't take 5 years. Take a look at what Jack Zduriencik has done in Seattle in a year. This is the same guy who built the Brewers system.
From: Ruben Safir on 21 Dec 2009 19:07
On Mon, 21 Dec 2009 05:21:45 -0800, jonathan wrote: >> I agree but the situation is more complex than that. In truth, we >> might not know what we are going to get next season and what we get >> might largely depend on pitching. > > I don't disagree. My point was that Maine, Pelfrey, and Perez pitching > better are as critical as any other factor. The other thing that would > help is if Maine and Perez actually made 60 starts and learned how to > get out of the 5th inning. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening. > > >> The team was devastated by injuries. I think it likely that Reyes, and >> Betran come back to the line up as strong as ever. I think it is >> likely > > There's plenty of evidence that would agree with your assessment. > >> to see a marginally better output by Murph. And I'm all but certain >> that Wright will return to form. So the addition of Bay might be very > > There's nothing wrong with Wright that a little luck wouldn't have > fixed. The truth is when you break down his numbers, his season wasn't > as bad as many suggest. I would have done the work but Rob Neyer > already did it for me :-) > > "Prior to 2009, Wright averaged 29 home runs per season. He was > consistent, too: 27-26-30-33. He's always been consistent. In his four > previous seasons, Wright's batting average and on-base percentage and > slugging percentage never strayed far from his career averages. Over the > course of four years, he firmly established himself as a . 310/.390/.530 > sort of hitter. You could set your watch by the guy. > > Until 2009. Oh, his batting average and on-base percentage were still > dead on target, same as usual. He hit 40 doubles, as usual. But the home > runs disappeared. Instead of hitting 30 home runs, Wright hit 10. Which > is what has Klapisch all worked up. > > Is Flushing's new yard the problem, though? Wright hit only five homers > there ... but that means he hit only five homers on the road, too. I > can't get inside his head, but I'm not sure it was Wright's head that > kept him from hitting more homers in road games. > > For what it's worth, Wright's line-drive rate was the highest of his > career (by an eyelash) and his fly-ball rate was down slightly. The > outlier was his home runs per fly ball, which was just seven percent, > compared to roughly 16 percent entering the season. So either his fly > balls weren't going as far as usual, or they were simply flying to the > wrong part of the outfield. > > Yes, the deeper dimensions in the new ballpark probably played a part. > My guess is that if you accounted for the ballpark and the time Wright > spent on the disabled list and poor luck, you could reasonably push him > to 20 home runs. > > Which isn't 30. But if he'd hit 20, nobody would be worrying too much > about him. > > So I'm not going to worry. Not yet. In 2009, there were more home runs > hit by right-handed batters in Mets home games than in road games. > Sometimes the statistics trick us, and sometimes our eyes do. I'm > willing to bet that David Wright's pre-2009 body of work shows up again > in 2010." > >> significant. Its the pitching that rally has me worried and I'm very >> concerned about the pitching coach. If Pelfry doesn't have a break out > > The pitching coach is an idiot. From everything I can tell his > knowledge of pitching is stuck around 1985. Even Peterson isn't as > cutting edge as these guys: http://www.nationalpitching.net/ - but I'd > still take him. Warthen is using betamax; Peterson is on DVD, and these > guys are BluRay . . . to make an analogy. > >> year and Main and Perez give us repeats of last season..then it is hard >> to see how the team can compete. > > The biggest problem is that neither guy shows any trending toward > actually becoming a reliable 200 IP major league starter. Neither one > of these guys has EVER thrown 200 IP in a professional season. When you > consider they have a combined 19 seasons in professional baseball, that > becomes even more glaring. Say what you want about Mike Pelfrey, > because he definitely regressed, but he at least has a 200 IP season > already in 4 years of pro ball. > > I know that sounds simplistic and some people will point to 'inning > eaters' or some bullshit like that, but the truth is that in the game > today, if you can throw 200 IP in a season, it means you're 1. healthy > enough to make 30+ starts, and 2. good enough to stay in those starts > long enough to average the 6+ innings you need. > > >> But the real weakness is a lack of development, and that can't be >> remedied in a single season and if signing Bay means giving up draft >> picks, it might be hard to swallow. > > I know you're obsessed with losing draft picks, and I agree with you . . > . BUT . . . do you have any real confidence this group will do anything > with those picks? Seriously? Their draft record is horrendous so far. > Omar has had 5 drafts. > > 2005 > Pelfrey (1) - Jury still out, but at least he made the big leagues. > Niese (7) - most likely won't be anything more then a fringe starter, > but I hope I'm wrong > Parnell (9) - middle reliever > Thole (13) - there's still hope > > The rest of the top 10 in that draft never made it out of A ball except > for Drew Butera who got traded to the Twins in the Castillo deal and is > at best a 3rd catcher. > > 2006 > Mulvey (2) - fringe major league pitcher Smith (3) - middle reliever > Murphy (13) - most likely a bench/platoon player Stoner (16) - fringe > major league pitcher > > Again, the rest of the top 10 hasn't made it out of A ball. > > 2007 > Kunz (1) - maybe will be a major league middle reliever > > At least Eric Niesen (3), Stephen Clyne (3), Zachary Lutz (5), and Lucas > Duda (7) have made it out of A ball. Of course, none are considered big > time prospects and given the Mets reputation for rushing prospects to > make them look more appealing . . . > > 2008 > > Nobody yet, but at least given THREE first round picks Omar had some > success. This is partly unfair. I've scoured the 1st, 2nd and 3nd round picks in the draft going back at least a decade, and in truth, most picks fizzle on a big scale. Player DEVELOPMENT is nearly as important picks and quantity is more important than even the best quality. This is not to discourage the importance of scouting. Scouting is a critical thing but it doesn't stop with the draft. Scouting other teams, players as they develop, understanding what their prospects are worth and how to nurture them is key to successfully stocking a minor league and 40 man roster. I think that it is interesting that the Phillies TRADED Lee for Halliday and STILL got back prospects...So that is another mindset issue. This team has money and for the cost of one Delgado contract they can fully stock their minor league system...but it has to be viewed as an essential priority. > Ike Davis tore up AA and I actually believe they may have a > player there. His BB/K rate is actually pretty good for a Mets > prospect. He should get a season at AA but more likely the Mets will > rush him to the big leagues when they realize Daniel Murphy and Fernando > Tatis can't cut it. Tatis is gone, I believe...which should have happened last year...again SCOUTING. I don't think it is necessarily bad to rush a player. What is bad is that the Major League club isn't good at nurturing players. That was a priority that Willie Randolf had, Valentine had, Johnson and Hodges had.... I'm more disillusioned with Manual at this point than Minya. > Brad Holt should start at AA but I'm anticipating > the Mets will rush him too because they're so thin with arms. Brad Holt Numbers: (turn off your word wrap) Pitching Statistics Year Team Lg Age Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP 2006 UNC Wilmington CAA 19 NCAA 3 3 3.48 14 8 0 0 0 54.1 54 25 21 5 28 42 5 8.9 0.8 4.6 7.0 1.51 2007 UNC Wilmington CAA 20 NCAA 5 5 5.90 15 15 0 0 0 76.1 83 58 50 14 32 53 6 9.8 1.7 3.8 6.2 1.51 2008 UNC Wilmington CAA 21 NCAA 11 1 3.18 15 15 2 0 0 93.1 78 40 33 8 36 95 1 7.5 0.8 3.5 9.2 1.22 Brooklyn NYPL 21 A- 5 3 1.87 14 14 0 0 0 0 72.1 43 18 15 3 33 96 2 5.4 0.4 4.1 11.9 1.05 2009 St. Lucie FSL 22 A+ 4 1 3.12 9 9 0 0 0 0 43.1 34 16 15 5 13 54 3 7.1 1.0 2.7 11.2 1.08 Binghamton East 22 AA 3 6 6.21 11 11 0 0 0 0 58.0 58 42 40 9 23 45 4 9.0 1.4 3.6 7.0 1.40 Minor League Totals - 2 Season(s) 12 10 3.64 34 34 0 0 0 0 173.2 135 76 70 17 69 195 9 7.0 0.9 3.6 10.1 1.18 I saw him in Brooklyn actually. Don't know what I think of him. Overall 3.64 ERA and not much success in AA. Definitely seems to need AA seasoning but his clock is ticking at age 22. 12 base runners per nine innings isn't great. The guy I really have hope for is Neise. I know nothing about scouting but the kid has a live curve ball, Byleven like (yah yah - tag him for the Hall of Fame). But I want to see him to get a lot of innings this season. Also, keep in mind that the scouting hasn't always failed them, Omar plucked Maine for spare parts (and Perez). They've over leverages Perez, or so it seems at this point, but the team has previously come up with unexpected pitching for the right trades. If they can unload someone Francour for well scouted pitching, they might be able to pull something out. > Reese > Havens had a nice year in high A and it looks like he's finally healthy. > If he starts well at AA he could see Buffalo by the end of the year. Reese's numbers: Minors Batting Glossary · Click headers to sort · SHARE SHARE [X] · CSV · PRE · LINK · Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2008 -- Brooklyn NYPL A_ss NYM 23 97 85 13 21 6 2 3 11 3 1 11 27 .247 .340 .471 .811 40 0 1 0 0 0 2009 -- St. Lucie FLOR A_adv NYM 97 430 360 53 89 19 1 14 52 3 2 55 73 .247 .361 .422 .784 152 9 11 1 3 2 2 Seasons 120 527 445 66 110 25 3 17 63 6 3 66 100 .247 .357 .431 .789 192 9 12 1 3 2 66 walks in 527 PA with a moderate slugging percentage. Backman might be able to do something with this guy but he's not close to being ML ready and seems as a mid-level prospect at this point. I saw him in Brooklyn as well and from what I saw he provided the only offense that day but fielded with a lead glove. > Oh wait, these are the Mets. He'll be at CitiField by June. I like > Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3) - the Mets don't draft many OF who can actually > hit. I also think Josh Satin (6) could be interesting although it's > likely he won't hit for enough power. > > Hard to tell what 2009 brought, but the early returns are not promising. > > Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2008 20 Brooklyn NYPL A_ss NYM 74 319 285 34 79 15 5 3 29 11 7 29 70 .277 .348 .396 .744 113 4 3 0 2 1 2009 21 2 Teams 2 Lgs A_adv-AA NYM 131 583 514 99 145 38 6 17 73 17 5 57 127 .282 .364 .479 .843 246 9 10 1 1 0 2009 21 St. Lucie FLOR A_adv NYM 123 547 482 91 132 35 5 16 71 16 4 53 118 .274 .357 .467 .824 225 8 10 1 1 0 2009 21 Binghamton EL AA NYM 8 36 32 8 13 3 1 1 2 1 1 4 9 .406 .472 .656 1.128 21 1 0 0 0 0 2 Seasons 205 902 799 133 224 53 11 20 102 28 12 86 197 .280 .358 .449 .808 359 13 13 1 3 1 YOUNG YOUNG guy. Needs more plate discipline as well. >> If FMart, Ike et al don't quickly pan out, and they aren't supported by >> more prospects, it will be tough going for another five years. > > It really doesn't take 5 years. Take a look at what Jack Zduriencik has > done in Seattle in a year. This is the same guy who built the Brewers > system. These guys benefited by years of high draft picks. Ruben |