Adam Dunn
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From: coachrose13 on 30 May 2007 02:12 On May 27, 10:31 am, "RJA" <r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: > <coachros...(a)hotmail.com> wrote in message > > news:1180251556.994061.294750(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com... > > > > > > > On May 27, 3:14 am, "Thomas R. Kettler" <tkett...(a)blownfuse.net> > > wrote: > >> In article <1180246217.872889.186...(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>, > > >> coachros...(a)hotmail.com wrote: > >> > I dont like having a 200 a year strikeout player batting behind the > >> > leadoff batter(assuming the lead-off is doing his job and getting on > >> > base). Of course, Dunn will quite often, hit the long ball, or even > >> > draw a walk, but I think far too often will strand the baserunner by > >> > striking out or hitting a fly ball. A good #2 hitter, at the bare > >> > minimum, should at least be able to move the runners along . I still > >> > think you should bat him in the 6 hole, regardless. He can still drive > >> > in a lot of runs from that spot, and when he is not hitting will not > >> > hurt his team as much as if he were battting higher in the lineup. The > >> > number 7 hitter, under ideal circumstances ( I know, I'm setting > >> > myself up on that one!) is kind of like a lead-off hitter: his job is > >> > primarily to get on base, so if Dunn is not hitting, it is kind of > >> > like the top of the order after he hits(at least until the pitcher's > >> > spot comes along!) > > >> There's a very good statistic for measuring how a batter moves runners. > >> It is called the Slugging Average (SLG). Adam Dunn does that quite well > >> with a career SLG=.514, 68th best of anyone ever in MLB. Also, a runner > >> of 1st will advance on a walk which he draws roughly every 6th PA. > > >> Also, consider that Adam Dunn doesn't ground into many double plays. > > > Mostly because he stikes out so much, hits a lot of fly balls, and > > bats left-handed, none of which usually moves the runner into scoring > > position for the #3 hitter. I also wonder how many walks Dunn would > > draw in the 2 hole with a good hitter batting behind, especially if > > the leadoff hitter does not get on. Personally, in that case, I would > > challenge him, knowing that I have about a one in two-and-a half > > chance of stirking him out, as opposed to being careful and walking > > him, and giving the #3 hitter a chance with a runner on base. > > >> While I still argue that he would be best used batting 2nd, if someone > >> wouldn't bat him 2nd, I'd argue he should bat 5th since the 5th place > >> hitter leads off the 2nd most often in an order after the obvious 1st > >> place hitter. > > >> Batting Dunn 6th would be stupid since his career OBP=.379 would be > >> wasted since a 7th and 8th hitter would rarely advance him to score on > >> the walks that he draws. > > > Most #7 hittters in the big leagues are far from being weak at the > > plate. Their job would be to move the6 hole along, as would the 8 > > batter. Depending on the game situation, the manager would then have > > to make a decision on wether to use a pinch hitter for the pitcher. > > Thats the way the game has been played for over 100 years. > > I just woke up. Did we acquire a new #7 hitter who's going to be good at > moving guys around? Otherwise, our 7 hitter is typically Alex Gonzalez who > isn't good at anything. This is Adam Dunn we're talking about, and he plays > for the Cincinnati Reds. We're not talking about where we'd bat him in > someone elses lineup.- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - Our #7 hitter, who doesnt always hit there,was, I believe, acquired several months ago. As of Tuesday, Gonzalez was hitting .268, compared with Dunn's .263. Gonzalez has10 home runs,compared to Dunn's 14. Slugging Pct.is .564 for Dunn, and a very respectivle .528 for Gonzalez. Dunn has also struck out 69 times compared to Gonzalez's 29. The season is not quite at the 1/3 point yet, but if things continue at this pace, Dunn should hit somewhere between 42 and 45 home runs, and Gonzalez would have a little over 30. Will that happen? With Dunn, probably yes,and with Gonzalez, a big hell no! At this point, Dunn would strike out about 210 times compared to Gonzalez 90. Will this pace continue? A good chance, I'd say. I think our shortstop can hold his own weight batting in the seven hole behind Dunn
From: coachrose13 on 30 May 2007 02:20 On May 28, 3:09 am, Dan Szymborski <d...(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote: > In article <1180251556.994061.294...(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>, > coachros...(a)hotmail.com says... > > > > > > > On May 27, 3:14 am, "Thomas R. Kettler" <tkett...(a)blownfuse.net> > > wrote: > > > In article <1180246217.872889.186...(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>, > > > > coachros...(a)hotmail.com wrote: > > > > I dont like having a 200 a year strikeout player batting behind the > > > > leadoff batter(assuming the lead-off is doing his job and getting on > > > > base). Of course, Dunn will quite often, hit the long ball, or even > > > > draw a walk, but I think far too often will strand the baserunner by > > > > striking out or hitting a fly ball. A good #2 hitter, at the bare > > > > minimum, should at least be able to move the runners along . I still > > > > think you should bat him in the 6 hole, regardless. He can still drive > > > > in a lot of runs from that spot, and when he is not hitting will not > > > > hurt his team as much as if he were battting higher in the lineup. The > > > > number 7 hitter, under ideal circumstances ( I know, I'm setting > > > > myself up on that one!) is kind of like a lead-off hitter: his job is > > > > primarily to get on base, so if Dunn is not hitting, it is kind of > > > > like the top of the order after he hits(at least until the pitcher's > > > > spot comes along!) > > > > There's a very good statistic for measuring how a batter moves runners. > > > It is called the Slugging Average (SLG). Adam Dunn does that quite well > > > with a career SLG=.514, 68th best of anyone ever in MLB. Also, a runner > > > of 1st will advance on a walk which he draws roughly every 6th PA. > > > > Also, consider that Adam Dunn doesn't ground into many double plays. > > > Mostly because he stikes out so much, hits a lot of fly balls, and > > bats left-handed, none of which usually moves the runner into scoring > > position for the #3 hitter. > > You're overestimating how many productive outs a contact hitter makes in > a year and how valuable a productive out is over a regular out. > > In the example of Freel being on 1st with nobody out, a walk is worth > more than *5 times* that of a productive out relative to a non- > productive out. A home run is worth almost *12 times* as much. > > If the choice was between Dunn making 0 productive outs a year and a > league-leading player making in the mid-30s productive outs a year, the > most negative possible scenario (and unrealistic as Dunn's made between > 5 and 10 a year, a fairly average number), Dunn could wipe out an entire > season of league-leading productive out-making with just 3 home > runs or 7 walks. > No way of having a stat to tell how important moving runners along is.You could move a runner over 10 times in a row and the hitter behind you not drive him in a single time, or he could drive him in 10 times in a row. You would not get any stats to show you helped your team,but anyone watching the game would know it. It's called teamwork! Maybe Bill James could come up with something, but wait! He always does AFTER the fact. > In other words, caring about how a particular hitter moves runners over > with outs is akin to worrying about recovering the chewed gum in your > ashtray when you find out your car is stolen. > Dont really understand that one at all. Of course, the ideal thing would to move the runner along via a basehit, but if you cant, move him along anyway you can. > -- > Dan Szymborski > d...(a)baseballprimer.REMOVE.com > > "A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is > not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good." > - Robert Schumann- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text -
From: coachrose13 on 30 May 2007 02:24 On May 28, 9:36 am, "David Short" <David.NO.Sh...(a)Wright.SPAM.Edu.PLEASE> wrote: > "Dan Szymborski" <d...(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message > > In other words, caring about how a particular hitter moves runners over > > with outs is akin to worrying about recovering the chewed gum in your > > ashtray when you find out your car is stolen. > > Productive Outs is for chumps. > > dfs Sorry, but since almost ALL major league players are going to be put out somewhere between 70 and 75 per cent of the time, I would think it would be VERY important to be as productice as possible during those 70 to 75 per cent of the times!
From: Dan Szymborski on 30 May 2007 15:37 In article <1180506011.874274.45660(a)k79g2000hse.googlegroups.com>, coachrose13(a)hotmail.com says... > On May 28, 3:09 am, Dan Szymborski <d...(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote: > > In article <1180251556.994061.294...(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>, > > coachros...(a)hotmail.com says... > > > > > > > > > > > > > On May 27, 3:14 am, "Thomas R. Kettler" <tkett...(a)blownfuse.net> > > > wrote: > > > > In article <1180246217.872889.186...(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>, > > > > > > coachros...(a)hotmail.com wrote: > > > > > I dont like having a 200 a year strikeout player batting behind the > > > > > leadoff batter(assuming the lead-off is doing his job and getting on > > > > > base). Of course, Dunn will quite often, hit the long ball, or even > > > > > draw a walk, but I think far too often will strand the baserunner by > > > > > striking out or hitting a fly ball. A good #2 hitter, at the bare > > > > > minimum, should at least be able to move the runners along . I still > > > > > think you should bat him in the 6 hole, regardless. He can still drive > > > > > in a lot of runs from that spot, and when he is not hitting will not > > > > > hurt his team as much as if he were battting higher in the lineup. The > > > > > number 7 hitter, under ideal circumstances ( I know, I'm setting > > > > > myself up on that one!) is kind of like a lead-off hitter: his job is > > > > > primarily to get on base, so if Dunn is not hitting, it is kind of > > > > > like the top of the order after he hits(at least until the pitcher's > > > > > spot comes along!) > > > > > > There's a very good statistic for measuring how a batter moves runners. > > > > It is called the Slugging Average (SLG). Adam Dunn does that quite well > > > > with a career SLG=.514, 68th best of anyone ever in MLB. Also, a runner > > > > of 1st will advance on a walk which he draws roughly every 6th PA. > > > > > > Also, consider that Adam Dunn doesn't ground into many double plays. > > > > > Mostly because he stikes out so much, hits a lot of fly balls, and > > > bats left-handed, none of which usually moves the runner into scoring > > > position for the #3 hitter. > > > > You're overestimating how many productive outs a contact hitter makes in > > a year and how valuable a productive out is over a regular out. > > > > In the example of Freel being on 1st with nobody out, a walk is worth > > more than *5 times* that of a productive out relative to a non- > > productive out. A home run is worth almost *12 times* as much. > > > > If the choice was between Dunn making 0 productive outs a year and a > > league-leading player making in the mid-30s productive outs a year, the > > most negative possible scenario (and unrealistic as Dunn's made between > > 5 and 10 a year, a fairly average number), Dunn could wipe out an entire > > season of league-leading productive out-making with just 3 home > > runs or 7 walks. > > > No way of having a stat to tell how important moving runners along > is.You could move a runner over 10 times in a row and the hitter > behind you not drive him in a single time, or he could drive him in 10 > times in a row. You would not get any stats to show you helped your > team,but anyone watching the game would know it. It's called teamwork! > Maybe Bill James could come up with something, but wait! He always > does AFTER the fact. That's an odd argument. You're essentially saying that using your mortgage payment for lottery tickets is a good idea because it COULD win 100 million dollars and you totally won't know until after the fact. No, you won't know exactly what happens with any play in baseball - you go with what's likely. And what's likely is that the amount of runners a batter advances on outs is so small and the advantage compared to a good play like the ones Dunn makes so miniscule that it doesn't matter in the realm of reality. > > In other words, caring about how a particular hitter moves runners over > > with outs is akin to worrying about recovering the chewed gum in your > > ashtray when you find out your car is stolen. > > > Dont really understand that one at all. Of course, the ideal thing > would to move the runner along via a basehit, but if you cant, move > him along anyway you can. Because it happens so little and it's of such little value that it's irrelevant. -- Dan Szymborski dan(a)baseballprimer.REMOVE.com "A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good." - Robert Schumann
From: Ron Johnson on 31 May 2007 13:36
On May 30, 3:37 pm, Dan Szymborski <d...(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote: > In article <1180506011.874274.45...(a)k79g2000hse.googlegroups.com>, > coachros...(a)hotmail.com says... > > > On May 28, 3:09 am, Dan Szymborski <d...(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote: > > > > In other words, caring about how a particular hitter moves runners over > > > with outs is akin to worrying about recovering the chewed gum in your > > > ashtray when you find out your car is stolen. > > > Dont really understand that one at all. Of course, the ideal thing > > would to move the runner along via a basehit, but if you cant, move > > him along anyway you can. > > Because it happens so little and it's of such little value that it's > irrelevant. (I know Dan knows all of this. Just piggy-backing to his post) It helps to look at it this way. With nobody on, all outs are of equal value. Ditto with two outs. That's a hefty chunk of all PAs. And with the DP in order an out on a ball in play is very much a mixed bag. Don't have the numbers handy, but something like 55% of ground ball outs are turned into DPs. And flyballs that advance a runner from first are pretty rare. Put it all together and what you're left with is PAs with runners on second, second and third or third with fewer than two outs. Somewhere around 9% of all PAs. And the PAs with a runner with decent speed on second with one out -- well a productive out really isn't that important. Another way to look at this. We know that we can estimate team runs scored to within about 20 runs most of the time using the basic stats you can get from baseball-reference. The biggest source of error is unquestionably clutch/timing (depending on your religious views). I mean single/home run is obviously better than home run/single. Then you've got opposition errors. Scored as an 0-1 but in reality a baserunner with no outs. Happened 48 times to the Reds last year, and 87 times to the Cubs. That's something on the order of 8 runs. And you've got base running. It's no big deal, but there are obviously a few runs a year at stake. (I've only done a limited amount of work on this, but from what I can tell the swing is about 7 runs a year from best to worst. IOW somewhat similar in magnitude to reached on errors) Put simply, if Ks were important in modelling team runs scored, our models wouldn't work. There's no room for Ks to matter more than a couple of runs per team per year. |