Adam Dunn
in [Cincinnati Reds]
|
Next: Matt Maloney
From: RJA on 28 May 2007 10:48 "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message news:MPG.20c44a31bfbb54869896c7(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > In article <1180251556.994061.294750(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>, > coachrose13(a)hotmail.com says... >> On May 27, 3:14 am, "Thomas R. Kettler" <tkett...(a)blownfuse.net> >> wrote: >> > In article <1180246217.872889.186...(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>, >> > >> > coachros...(a)hotmail.com wrote: >> > > I dont like having a 200 a year strikeout player batting behind the >> > > leadoff batter(assuming the lead-off is doing his job and getting on >> > > base). Of course, Dunn will quite often, hit the long ball, or even >> > > draw a walk, but I think far too often will strand the baserunner by >> > > striking out or hitting a fly ball. A good #2 hitter, at the bare >> > > minimum, should at least be able to move the runners along . I still >> > > think you should bat him in the 6 hole, regardless. He can still >> > > drive >> > > in a lot of runs from that spot, and when he is not hitting will not >> > > hurt his team as much as if he were battting higher in the lineup. >> > > The >> > > number 7 hitter, under ideal circumstances ( I know, I'm setting >> > > myself up on that one!) is kind of like a lead-off hitter: his job is >> > > primarily to get on base, so if Dunn is not hitting, it is kind of >> > > like the top of the order after he hits(at least until the pitcher's >> > > spot comes along!) >> > >> > There's a very good statistic for measuring how a batter moves runners. >> > It is called the Slugging Average (SLG). Adam Dunn does that quite well >> > with a career SLG=.514, 68th best of anyone ever in MLB. Also, a runner >> > of 1st will advance on a walk which he draws roughly every 6th PA. >> > >> > Also, consider that Adam Dunn doesn't ground into many double plays. >> > >> Mostly because he stikes out so much, hits a lot of fly balls, and >> bats left-handed, none of which usually moves the runner into scoring >> position for the #3 hitter. > > You're overestimating how many productive outs a contact hitter makes in > a year and how valuable a productive out is over a regular out. > > In the example of Freel being on 1st with nobody out, a walk is worth > more than *5 times* that of a productive out relative to a non- > productive out. A home run is worth almost *12 times* as much. > > If the choice was between Dunn making 0 productive outs a year and a > league-leading player making in the mid-30s productive outs a year, the > most negative possible scenario (and unrealistic as Dunn's made between > 5 and 10 a year, a fairly average number), Dunn could wipe out an entire > season of league-leading productive out-making with just 3 home > runs or 7 walks. Are you assuming that the guy with the 30 productive outs doesn't walk or hit home runs? Because it would be ideal to make productive outs and walk/hit home runs. > In other words, caring about how a particular hitter moves runners over > with outs is akin to worrying about recovering the chewed gum in your > ashtray when you find out your car is stolen. > > -- > Dan Szymborski > dan(a)baseballprimer.REMOVE.com > > "A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is > not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good." > - Robert Schumann
From: Dan Szymborski on 28 May 2007 19:09 In article <465aeaf9$0$10104$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... > "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message > news:MPG.20c44a31bfbb54869896c7(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > > Are you assuming that the guy with the 30 productive outs doesn't walk or > hit home runs? Because it would be ideal to make productive outs and > walk/hit home runs. I'm assuming that the guy with the 30 productive outs will have a lot less home runs and walks than Adam Dunn. This is a pretty good assumption since Adam Dunn hits a lot of home runs and draws a lot of walks. If the Reds have such a player that hits almost as well as Dunn and walks almost as much and is really good at making productive outs, I haven't encountered him yet! -- Dan Szymborski dan(a)baseballprimer.REMOVE.com "A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good." - Robert Schumann
From: RJA on 28 May 2007 21:12 "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message news:MPG.20c52b10542927899896c8(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > In article <465aeaf9$0$10104$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, > rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... >> "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message >> news:MPG.20c44a31bfbb54869896c7(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > >> >> Are you assuming that the guy with the 30 productive outs doesn't walk or >> hit home runs? Because it would be ideal to make productive outs and >> walk/hit home runs. > > I'm assuming that the guy with the 30 productive outs will have a lot > less home runs and walks than Adam Dunn. This is a pretty good > assumption since Adam Dunn hits a lot of home runs and draws a lot of > walks. If the Reds have such a player that hits almost as well as Dunn > and walks almost as much and is really good at making productive outs, I > haven't encountered him yet! No the Reds don't, just was wondering what we're comparing to. It sounded like the rest of baseball rather than the rest of the Reds. Today, Dunn grounded out to 2nd with a man on 2nd and 1 out and moved the runner to third with 2 out. George Grande called it a productive out. Not sure why.
From: Kevin McClave on 28 May 2007 21:18 On Mon, 28 May 2007 21:12:38 -0400, "RJA" <rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: >"Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message >news:MPG.20c52b10542927899896c8(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... >> In article <465aeaf9$0$10104$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, >> rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... >>> "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message >>> news:MPG.20c44a31bfbb54869896c7(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... >> >>> >>> Are you assuming that the guy with the 30 productive outs doesn't walk or >>> hit home runs? Because it would be ideal to make productive outs and >>> walk/hit home runs. >> >> I'm assuming that the guy with the 30 productive outs will have a lot >> less home runs and walks than Adam Dunn. This is a pretty good >> assumption since Adam Dunn hits a lot of home runs and draws a lot of >> walks. If the Reds have such a player that hits almost as well as Dunn >> and walks almost as much and is really good at making productive outs, I >> haven't encountered him yet! > >No the Reds don't, just was wondering what we're comparing to. It sounded >like the rest of baseball rather than the rest of the Reds. > >Today, Dunn grounded out to 2nd with a man on 2nd and 1 out and moved the >runner to third with 2 out. George Grande called it a productive out. Not >sure why. Because George Grande is as clueless as he is hokey. ****************************************************************** Kevin McClave "To justify himself, each relies on the other's crime." ~Albert Camus ******************************************************************
From: Dan Szymborski on 29 May 2007 16:37
In article <465b7d5e$0$4649$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... > "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message > news:MPG.20c52b10542927899896c8(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > > In article <465aeaf9$0$10104$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, > > rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... > >> "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message > >> news:MPG.20c44a31bfbb54869896c7(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > > > >> > >> Are you assuming that the guy with the 30 productive outs doesn't walk or > >> hit home runs? Because it would be ideal to make productive outs and > >> walk/hit home runs. > > > > I'm assuming that the guy with the 30 productive outs will have a lot > > less home runs and walks than Adam Dunn. This is a pretty good > > assumption since Adam Dunn hits a lot of home runs and draws a lot of > > walks. If the Reds have such a player that hits almost as well as Dunn > > and walks almost as much and is really good at making productive outs, I > > haven't encountered him yet! > > No the Reds don't, just was wondering what we're comparing to. It sounded > like the rest of baseball rather than the rest of the Reds. > > Today, Dunn grounded out to 2nd with a man on 2nd and 1 out and moved the > runner to third with 2 out. George Grande called it a productive out. Not > sure why. That certainly is odd. There's very little difference with 2 outs unless you have a guy like Ichiro who has a significant chance at getting an infield hit. -- Dan Szymborski dan(a)baseballprimer.REMOVE.com "A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good." - Robert Schumann |