Adam Dunn
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From: Kevin McClave on 27 May 2007 10:37 On Sun, 27 May 2007 10:28:21 -0400, "RJA" <rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: >"Thomas R. Kettler" <tkettler(a)blownfuse.net> wrote in message >news:tkettler-1C7485.03143327052007(a)news.fuse.net... >> In article <1180246217.872889.186930(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>, >> coachrose13(a)hotmail.com wrote: >> >>> I dont like having a 200 a year strikeout player batting behind the >>> leadoff batter(assuming the lead-off is doing his job and getting on >>> base). Of course, Dunn will quite often, hit the long ball, or even >>> draw a walk, but I think far too often will strand the baserunner by >>> striking out or hitting a fly ball. A good #2 hitter, at the bare >>> minimum, should at least be able to move the runners along . I still >>> think you should bat him in the 6 hole, regardless. He can still drive >>> in a lot of runs from that spot, and when he is not hitting will not >>> hurt his team as much as if he were battting higher in the lineup. The >>> number 7 hitter, under ideal circumstances ( I know, I'm setting >>> myself up on that one!) is kind of like a lead-off hitter: his job is >>> primarily to get on base, so if Dunn is not hitting, it is kind of >>> like the top of the order after he hits(at least until the pitcher's >>> spot comes along!) >> >> There's a very good statistic for measuring how a batter moves runners. >> It is called the Slugging Average (SLG). Adam Dunn does that quite well >> with a career SLG=.514, 68th best of anyone ever in MLB. > > That's coming mostly from HR which has only happened 12 times in 200+ plate >appearances. It's not something you can use to say he's going to be great >in the 2-hole at moving Freel into scoring position. It is when you combine it with his BBs, Rich. If Freel gets on and Adam walks Freel's at 2B in scoring position. ****************************************************************** Kevin McClave "To justify himself, each relies on the other's crime." ~Albert Camus ******************************************************************
From: RJA on 27 May 2007 11:59 "Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveSPAM(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote in message news:8q5j53pustubdmn53d18kagfk9ad54s992(a)4ax.com... > On Sun, 27 May 2007 10:28:21 -0400, "RJA" <rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: > >>"Thomas R. Kettler" <tkettler(a)blownfuse.net> wrote in message >>news:tkettler-1C7485.03143327052007(a)news.fuse.net... >>> In article <1180246217.872889.186930(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>, >>> coachrose13(a)hotmail.com wrote: >>> >>>> I dont like having a 200 a year strikeout player batting behind the >>>> leadoff batter(assuming the lead-off is doing his job and getting on >>>> base). Of course, Dunn will quite often, hit the long ball, or even >>>> draw a walk, but I think far too often will strand the baserunner by >>>> striking out or hitting a fly ball. A good #2 hitter, at the bare >>>> minimum, should at least be able to move the runners along . I still >>>> think you should bat him in the 6 hole, regardless. He can still drive >>>> in a lot of runs from that spot, and when he is not hitting will not >>>> hurt his team as much as if he were battting higher in the lineup. The >>>> number 7 hitter, under ideal circumstances ( I know, I'm setting >>>> myself up on that one!) is kind of like a lead-off hitter: his job is >>>> primarily to get on base, so if Dunn is not hitting, it is kind of >>>> like the top of the order after he hits(at least until the pitcher's >>>> spot comes along!) >>> >>> There's a very good statistic for measuring how a batter moves runners. >>> It is called the Slugging Average (SLG). Adam Dunn does that quite well >>> with a career SLG=.514, 68th best of anyone ever in MLB. >> >> That's coming mostly from HR which has only happened 12 times in 200+ >> plate >>appearances. It's not something you can use to say he's going to be great >>in the 2-hole at moving Freel into scoring position. > > It is when you combine it with his BBs, Rich. If Freel gets on and Adam > walks Freel's at 2B in scoring position. Right, but that wasn't stated. I'm fine with batting him 2nd. In fact, I seem to recall him doing well in that spot.
From: Kevin McClave on 27 May 2007 16:59 On Sun, 27 May 2007 11:59:13 -0400, "RJA" <rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: >"Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveSPAM(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote in message >news:8q5j53pustubdmn53d18kagfk9ad54s992(a)4ax.com... >> On Sun, 27 May 2007 10:28:21 -0400, "RJA" <rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: >> >>>"Thomas R. Kettler" <tkettler(a)blownfuse.net> wrote in message >>>news:tkettler-1C7485.03143327052007(a)news.fuse.net... >>>> In article <1180246217.872889.186930(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>, >>>> coachrose13(a)hotmail.com wrote: >>>> >>>>> I dont like having a 200 a year strikeout player batting behind the >>>>> leadoff batter(assuming the lead-off is doing his job and getting on >>>>> base). Of course, Dunn will quite often, hit the long ball, or even >>>>> draw a walk, but I think far too often will strand the baserunner by >>>>> striking out or hitting a fly ball. A good #2 hitter, at the bare >>>>> minimum, should at least be able to move the runners along . I still >>>>> think you should bat him in the 6 hole, regardless. He can still drive >>>>> in a lot of runs from that spot, and when he is not hitting will not >>>>> hurt his team as much as if he were battting higher in the lineup. The >>>>> number 7 hitter, under ideal circumstances ( I know, I'm setting >>>>> myself up on that one!) is kind of like a lead-off hitter: his job is >>>>> primarily to get on base, so if Dunn is not hitting, it is kind of >>>>> like the top of the order after he hits(at least until the pitcher's >>>>> spot comes along!) >>>> >>>> There's a very good statistic for measuring how a batter moves runners. >>>> It is called the Slugging Average (SLG). Adam Dunn does that quite well >>>> with a career SLG=.514, 68th best of anyone ever in MLB. >>> >>> That's coming mostly from HR which has only happened 12 times in 200+ >>> plate >>>appearances. It's not something you can use to say he's going to be great >>>in the 2-hole at moving Freel into scoring position. >> >> It is when you combine it with his BBs, Rich. If Freel gets on and Adam >> walks Freel's at 2B in scoring position. > >Right, but that wasn't stated. I'm fine with batting him 2nd. In fact, I >seem to recall him doing well in that spot. I wasn't against batting him there previously, but after Dan's comment about it the other day, I see it as probably his best slot in this lineup. ****************************************************************** Kevin McClave "To justify himself, each relies on the other's crime." ~Albert Camus ******************************************************************
From: Dan Szymborski on 28 May 2007 03:09 In article <1180251556.994061.294750(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>, coachrose13(a)hotmail.com says... > On May 27, 3:14 am, "Thomas R. Kettler" <tkett...(a)blownfuse.net> > wrote: > > In article <1180246217.872889.186...(a)h2g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>, > > > > coachros...(a)hotmail.com wrote: > > > I dont like having a 200 a year strikeout player batting behind the > > > leadoff batter(assuming the lead-off is doing his job and getting on > > > base). Of course, Dunn will quite often, hit the long ball, or even > > > draw a walk, but I think far too often will strand the baserunner by > > > striking out or hitting a fly ball. A good #2 hitter, at the bare > > > minimum, should at least be able to move the runners along . I still > > > think you should bat him in the 6 hole, regardless. He can still drive > > > in a lot of runs from that spot, and when he is not hitting will not > > > hurt his team as much as if he were battting higher in the lineup. The > > > number 7 hitter, under ideal circumstances ( I know, I'm setting > > > myself up on that one!) is kind of like a lead-off hitter: his job is > > > primarily to get on base, so if Dunn is not hitting, it is kind of > > > like the top of the order after he hits(at least until the pitcher's > > > spot comes along!) > > > > There's a very good statistic for measuring how a batter moves runners. > > It is called the Slugging Average (SLG). Adam Dunn does that quite well > > with a career SLG=.514, 68th best of anyone ever in MLB. Also, a runner > > of 1st will advance on a walk which he draws roughly every 6th PA. > > > > Also, consider that Adam Dunn doesn't ground into many double plays. > > > Mostly because he stikes out so much, hits a lot of fly balls, and > bats left-handed, none of which usually moves the runner into scoring > position for the #3 hitter. You're overestimating how many productive outs a contact hitter makes in a year and how valuable a productive out is over a regular out. In the example of Freel being on 1st with nobody out, a walk is worth more than *5 times* that of a productive out relative to a non- productive out. A home run is worth almost *12 times* as much. If the choice was between Dunn making 0 productive outs a year and a league-leading player making in the mid-30s productive outs a year, the most negative possible scenario (and unrealistic as Dunn's made between 5 and 10 a year, a fairly average number), Dunn could wipe out an entire season of league-leading productive out-making with just 3 home runs or 7 walks. In other words, caring about how a particular hitter moves runners over with outs is akin to worrying about recovering the chewed gum in your ashtray when you find out your car is stolen. -- Dan Szymborski dan(a)baseballprimer.REMOVE.com "A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good." - Robert Schumann
From: David Short on 28 May 2007 09:36
"Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message > In other words, caring about how a particular hitter moves runners over > with outs is akin to worrying about recovering the chewed gum in your > ashtray when you find out your car is stolen. Productive Outs is for chumps. dfs |