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From: John Kasupski on 27 Apr 2010 12:59
On Mon, 26 Apr 2010 13:40:18 -0400, David Short
<David.No.Short.(a)Spam.wright.Please.edu> wrote:

>On 4/26/2010 12:31 PM, john smith wrote:
>If Stubbs can become an average hitter and play center like that, he'll
>have a 10 year career.
>
>> Comparing him to Geronimo maybe
>> pre-mature. Have you forgotten about Eddie Milner? He had he best range
>> of any Red's outfielder I ever saw.
>
>hmmm. I don't remember Milner. I was out of town and w/out tv during
>those years.

Milner was one of the best defensive CFs in the game during the 80's. He had a
slight problem with his nose, though. Otherwise his MLB career might have been
longer than the seven years he played. Career .253 hitter with speed and
occasional power. IMHO, the comparison is a pretty good one.

JK

From: John Kasupski on 27 Apr 2010 13:20
On Mon, 26 Apr 2010 17:17:17 -0700, eddygdvd(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote:

>Eddie Joost wow you went far back for that one. Says he is career.239
>career hitter?

That only tells 1/3 of the story. The other 2/3:

* Joost played the early part of his career at a disadvantage...his hitting
improved noticably after he talked it over with Connie Mack and started wearing
his eyeglasses on the field.

* Joost had six straight seasons of 100 walks or more and a career OBP of .361,
including one season where he had a .429 OBP, hit 23 homers, walked 149 times,
and scored 128 runs (1949). He was also an outstanding defensive shortstop. If
there was an outstanding defensive shortstop putting up numbers like that today,
Billy Beane would be creamin' his jeans (Joost also played for the A's when they
were still in Philly). So would a lot of other GMs.

Oh,,,Henry's point (I think), considering that the guy played in the major
leagues for 17 years, way before people were keeping track of OBP as closely as
folks today do - is that he was a MUCH better hitter in the late 40's and early
50's than he was when he debuted with the Reds in '36.

JK

From: John Kasupski on 27 Apr 2010 13:38
On Mon, 26 Apr 2010 08:35:18 -0700 (PDT), RJA <agentvaughn(a)gmail.com> wrote:

>Two things. First, if we win 2 of 3 against the Pirates, we're over .
>500. That series was a bit strange because Rolen missed the whole
>thing and then Votto had the flu or something one night and couldn't
>play. There was at least one close game in that series that could
>have tipped as a result.

And they now have a series against the Disastros where they have a good chance
to make up for that.

>Second, I don't think Jay Bruce is doing as badly as many think.
>Early in the year, he was smoking the ball and hitting it right at
>guys. They've been falling in for him of late and his numbers have
>been on the rise. I can't see writing this guy off yet at age 23.
>His patience seems to be improving and that should help.

Yeah. You don't write off a guy who's made the majors at age 23 and is
struggling. You write off a guy at age 23 who's made it to AA and is struggling.
Despite the crappy BA and a K rate that some found alarming last year, Jay Bruce
was still a 100 OPS+ player and in my opinion an outstanding defender in right
field. A week ago he was floundering. Then he went yard Thursday, had three hits
Sunday. Not bad for one of the youngest players in the NL.

>I read that we're 5th in the NL in runs scored. The ineffectiveness
>of the starting pitching and the toll that it's taking on the bullpen
>is the main problem. Several of the hitters and pitchers will come
>back to their career averages and that should only help. Not too
>worried yet.

Yeah. I, too, believe that "regression to the mean" works in both directions.

>I do think that Hanigan needs to replace Hernandez. Janish looks
>better at the plate but it's a small sample. He seems to hit the ball
>hard though. If Cabrera continues with his current percentages, you
>can't keep running Harang, Cabrera and Hernandez out there unless
>payroll is making the decisions.

Regarding Cabrera, the Reds have played 16 games. His .239 is noticably under
his current .274 career BA. However, his final Ba for each of the past six
seasons has been above his career BA. You gotta go back to 2005 where he hit
only .257 - I don't think he's gonna hit .239 all year. Small sample size, same
as Janish - though I will observe that Janish had 21 doubles in 256 ABs last
year and isn't known as a speed merchant, so he wasn't exactly getting Texas
League singles to begin with. And he did have a good ST. Still, I think the Reds
can afford to be patient. It's been observed that you don't win the division in
April - which is true, although you can certainly lose the division in April but
they haven't really done that either. When all is said and done, they're only
four games behind the Cardinals.

Hanigan has raked so far this year, but there's much more to catching than
hitting and IMHO Hernandez has still clearly been the better defensive catcher.

JK

From: David Short on 27 Apr 2010 14:23
On 4/27/2010 1:38 PM, John Kasupski wrote:
> On Mon, 26 Apr 2010 08:35:18 -0700 (PDT), RJA<agentvaughn(a)gmail.com> wrote:
>> Second, I don't think Jay Bruce is doing as badly as many think.
>> Early in the year, he was smoking the ball and hitting it right at
>> guys. They've been falling in for him of late and his numbers have
>> been on the rise. I can't see writing this guy off yet at age 23.
>> His patience seems to be improving and that should help.
>
> Yeah. You don't write off a guy who's made the majors at age 23 and is
> struggling. You write off a guy at age 23 who's made it to AA and is struggling.
> Despite the crappy BA and a K rate that some found alarming last year, Jay Bruce
> was still a 100 OPS+ player and in my opinion an outstanding defender in right
> field. A week ago he was floundering. Then he went yard Thursday, had three hits
> Sunday. Not bad for one of the youngest players in the NL.

.....maybe I didn't write it as clearly as a could have. I certainly
don't WANT to write off Jay Bruce at this point, but I think if you are
the reds front office and you are tasked with contingency planning, you
have to at least be thinking....How much longer can we keep running him
out there? Sure, I'm glad Bruce has raised his OPS+ to an 86 and it is
early in the season so he could become the thumper we all want him to
be, ....but what if he doesn't? When would you cut the cord?


> Hanigan has raked so far this year, but there's much more to catching than
> hitting and IMHO Hernandez has still clearly been the better defensive catcher.

Really? I'll look again, but I would go the other way around. I think
Hanigan does a markedly better job behind the plate. It's pretty tough
to get too worked up about numbers based on 30 plate appearances.

yeah, you could append that last sentence to the Bruce thread above and
I wouldn't mind.

dfs
From: john smith on 27 Apr 2010 14:56
All Time Defensive Team:

1b- Keih Hernandez
2b- Frank White/ Ryne Sanberg
ss- Ozzie Smith
3b- Brooks Robinson
Lf- Dave Winfield
Cf- Paul Blair/ Gary Maddux
Rf- Tony Gwynn/ Dwight Evans
c- Johnny Bench
p- Jim Katt

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