Will A-Bang stop the bleeding?
in [Cincinnati Reds]
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From: john smith on 20 Jun 2010 10:07 The Reds haven't won a series since the Nationals three game set a couple of weeks ago. Now A-Bang gets the ball against a guy with an ERA over 6. What are the odds of A-Bang getting a win here? The pitching has fallen apart over the last month, not a good sign. Little nagging injuries are starting to mount and it looks like Bruce has been over played and is showing signs of it. It is sad but we have all seen this scenario unfold in the past. Despite all the negatives, they are only 1.5 games back but I seem to remember last year they were stuck on 4.5 games back for like a month. This division is quite mediocre and was primed for the taking by any club who could put together a nice run. The Reds have seemed to have wasted their opportunity. Because their schedule only will get tougher when they hit the road the next time after this trip. Is any team capable of separation in this division? Probably not......that is why the Reds still have a chance. They will have the Phillies and Mets coming up soon on the road. This will either make them or break them. Those teams are better now then they were a month ago so it will be even a greater task. The Mets are almost unbeatable at home and the Phillies are no longer getting shut-out every other night. The offense has been a nice surprise but we have all seen them have spurts like this in the past only to putter out come July...... I was starting to believe when the starting pitchers had a nice 3 week stretch. But that has proven to be a mirage. Maybe Volquez and Chapman can refuel this starting staff. It will take a major jolt and contribution by these two guys and maybe Bailey to restart this engine. I don't know if that is possible. Offense is nice but any sustainable bid to contend will always begin and end with your starting staff...... Funny thing, the bullpen is only a problem if your starters give them the opportunity to perform. At least that problem has been solved over the last week or so.....lol....
From: John Kasupski on 20 Jun 2010 16:31 On Sun, 20 Jun 2010 07:07:05 -0700, eddygdvd(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote: >The Reds haven't won a series since the Nationals three game set a >couple of weeks ago. Now A-Bang gets the ball against a guy with an ERA >over 6. What are the odds of A-Bang getting a win here? His career numbers against Seattle are 1-3, 1.53 in five games (four starts). That should tell you something - a 1.53 ERA, and a WHIP of less than 1.000, and he's only got a 1-3 record to show for it? >The pitching has fallen apart over the last month, not a good sign. It has? Last 365 days: 81-83, 4.44 Last 28 days: 12-13, 4.38 2010 Totals: 37-32, 4.57 >Little nagging injuries are starting to mount and it looks like Bruce >has been over played and is showing signs of it. It is sad but we have >all seen this scenario unfold in the past. He has had a rough week, hasn't he? Took the collar in four of his last seven games...but remember that in two of those four games, the opposing pitchers (Greinke and Lee) were Cy Young winners. Lots of guys take the collar against those two dudes. The next three starting pitchers the Reds will face are lefthanded (Ryan Rowand-Smith today, Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden on Monday and Tuesday), so I'm hoping Dusty will give him a game off and run Heisey out there, the rest will do him some good and he'll get back to where he was the two weeks or so before this. >Despite all the negatives, they are only 1.5 games back but I seem to >remember last year they were stuck on 4.5 games back for like a month. >This division is quite mediocre and was primed for the taking by any >club who could put together a nice run. The Reds have seemed to have >wasted their opportunity. Because their schedule only will get tougher >when they hit the road the next time after this trip. Yes. After Oakland they get the Indians and Phillies at GABP, then the road trip to face the Cubs, Mets, and Phillies. By the time all that's over with, hopefully Hanigan will be back; Volquez might be ready to come back, which would help the rotation, and the bullpen might receive a boost from Burton and maybe even Bray. >Is any team capable of separation in this division? Probably >not......that is why the Reds still have a chance. They will have the >Phillies and Mets coming up soon on the road. This will either make them >or break them. Those teams are better now then they were a month ago so >it will be even a greater task. The Mets are almost unbeatable at home >and the Phillies are no longer getting shut-out every other night. I do think it's possible. The Cardinals with their pitching could probably do it once Brad Penny comes off the DL and they have him, Carpenter, Wainwright, and that Garcia kid in the rotation. They have series against the Blue Jays, Royals, D-Backs, Brewers, and Astros coming up, but then they have four-game series against the Dodgers and Phillies in mid-July when the Reds will have the Rockies and Nats at home. Similarly...if the Reds get everybody healthy again, including Volquez, Bray, Burton - and they perform up to snuff - they have that ten-game stretch at the end of July against the Nationals, Astros, and Brewers. They could very well get themselves some breathing room. As I've observed previously, I don't think the Cubs and Brewers are going to do it, because their bullpens really suck, and because they'd have to play some really outstanding baseball for a couple of weeks just to get back in the race, let alone open a sizable lead on the rest of the division. As for the Astros and Pirates...well, right from the minute at spring training when they dumped out the first bag of balls around the cage, I doubt if anybody outside their respective clubhouses ever thought those two clubs were going to do anything but fight each other to stay out of the cellar. >I was starting to believe when the starting pitchers had a nice 3 week >stretch. But that has proven to be a mirage. >Maybe Volquez and Chapman can refuel this starting staff. It will take a >major jolt and contribution by these two guys and maybe Bailey to >restart this engine. I don't know if that is possible. Offense is nice >but any sustainable bid to contend will always begin and end with your >starting staff...... > >Funny thing, the bullpen is only a problem if your starters give them >the opportunity to perform. At least that problem has been solved over >the last week or so.....lol.... I feel compelled to point out that you basically just slammed the starting rotation and then immediately followed that up by complimenting them on going deep into games and thus taking some pressure off the bullpen? :-) Let me just point out this: Four runs is a magic number. Score more than four, or allow less than four, you're going to win more often than not. The Reds have scored fewer than four runs nine times in June, and lost every one of those games. They've allowed more than four runs nine times during June. They lost six of those. Perhaps more importantly, the Reds have been shut out four times in June. They only got shut out three times in April and May combined. That doesn't mean much when you're losing 12-0, like the one game against the Dodgers, but they lost 2-0 to Houston, 3-0 to the Giants, and 1-0 to Seattle. All three of those teams have a staff ERA higher than 4.00 - all other things being equal, if the Reds score four runs in each of those games they win all three, are 10-7 instead of 7-10 for the month of June, and have a 2-1/2 game lead in the division. And maybe Sam LeCure has a win instead of a loss against the Giants, but that's another point - the Reds have ten losses in June. LeCure took three of those losses, and the bullpen took three more - and the Reds currently are three games under .500 for the month of June. So 3 would appear to be sopmewhat of a magic number as well right now. let's hope they start a three-game winning streak (which would mean a series win against Oakland), then sweep the three-game series against the Indians, and we find them three games up on the Cardinals in the standings by the time the Phillies come to GABP. JK
From: tom dunne on 20 Jun 2010 17:54 On Jun 20, 4:31 pm, John Kasupski <w2...(a)spamfilter.verizon.net> wrote: > On Sun, 20 Jun 2010 07:07:05 -0700, eddyg...(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote: > >The Reds haven't won a series since the Nationals three game set a > >couple of weeks ago. Now A-Bang gets the ball against a guy with an ERA > >over 6. What are the odds of A-Bang getting a win here? > > His career numbers against Seattle are 1-3, 1.53 in five games (four starts). > That should tell you something - a 1.53 ERA, and a WHIP of less than 1.000, and > he's only got a 1-3 record to show for it? > > >The pitching has fallen apart over the last month, not a good sign. > > It has? > > Last 365 days: 81-83, 4.44 > Last 28 days: 12-13, 4.38 > 2010 Totals: 37-32, 4.57 Hey, John, how are you getting your numbers? Do you have a site that sorts stats between specific start and end dates? I'm usually at B- R.com, but I don't remember seeing that functionality. Pretty cool. Anyway, it's not the pitching that's the problem in Seattle. The offense has scored 1 run in the first 23 innings, and that won't win much of anything. Harang's looking good today, but the offense hasn't picked him up.
From: John Kasupski on 20 Jun 2010 18:17 On Sun, 20 Jun 2010 14:54:12 -0700 (PDT), tom dunne <dunnetg(a)gmail.com> wrote: >On Jun 20, 4:31�pm, John Kasupski <w2...(a)spamfilter.verizon.net> >wrote: >> Last 365 days: 81-83, 4.44 >> Last 28 days: 12-13, 4.38 >> 2010 Totals: 37-32, 4.57 > >Hey, John, how are you getting your numbers? Do you have a site that >sorts stats between specific start and end dates? I'm usually at B- >R.com, but I don't remember seeing that functionality. Pretty cool. That information is on B-R, go to the team page, hover your mouse over "Pitching" right there at the top of the page just under the sponsorship box, and a list of options drops down, one of which is "Splits" - the season totals I cited are right there at the top of the team splits page. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=CIN&year=2010 >Anyway, it's not the pitching that's the problem in Seattle. The >offense has scored 1 run in the first 23 innings, and that won't win >much of anything. Harang's looking good today, but the offense hasn't >picked him up. Yeah...once again it's 1-0 going into the seventh inning. You can't blame Harang if they lose this one when he has to pitch a shutout just to get a no-decision. JK
From: john smith on 20 Jun 2010 19:43
JK .....you missed my point about the starting pitching, I was being sarcastic because they haven't really given the bullpen the chance to pitch meaningful innings lately. So in effect, I was also being sarcastic about the bull-pen as well because they haven't been given the chance to mess up. When was the last time Cordero was in a save situation? Also up until this weekend and the last start by Bronson, I haven't seen any quality starts over the last two weeks. No matter, the team is in a big funk right now. The only positive I see right now is Logan O. out of the pen. That road trip at the end of the month will tell us a whole lot about this team. I will wait until the all-star break to "panic." We can all give the excuses about ... well we faced Greinke, we faced Lee, we faced that great pitcher, we can't expect to win those games. The bottom line is very good teams find a way to beat them guys once in awhile especially when their pitcher holds the other team to one run. I have seen this movie the Reds play every June and July. I know all the lines and have the ending memorized by heart. It usually starts out as a thriller and ends up in a nightmare. So until somebody comes up with a new cast, some new lines and maybe a new director and producer..... I am not believing... .. |