From: Ruben Safir on
On Tue, 29 Jun 2010 05:58:37 -0700, jonathan wrote:

>> 1/5 games have been shutout baseball at the bottom of the pitching
>> rotation.  That is darn good, in addition to the top of the routation.
>>
>> If you have a pitcher with 30 starts and he is throwing shutouts 20% of
>> the time that would be 6 shutouts for the year..not bad.  I'd take that
>> from the entire staff and throw 30 shutouts over the season.
>
> Good point. I concede this one. Still, you are over the top, because
> I'm not ready to annoint a top-of-the-rotation starter mantle to a guy
> who's allowed more then a H/IP with a sub 7.0 K/9 and a 35-year old
> journeyman knuckleballer.
>
>> > I really don't feel like teaching you what BABIP is.  I think you
>> > know.  Want to tell me Jack Morris pitched to the score too?
>>
>> I don't care about Morris, unless he was also my #3 pitcher..  I care
>> that Neise is letting his fielders work for him and is throwing the
>> ball over the plate DESPITE the pitching coach.  The more he does that,
>> the more he will win.
>
> Well yes, throwing strikes helps a lot. Unfortunately, missing bats
> helps more. Niese's swinging strike percentage is 14%, which is a
> career high. The MLB average is 15%. His overall strike % is 63%,
> which is the MLB average.
>
> I've said over and over again that I think Niese is a nice league
> average starter and well worth the league minimum salary the Mets will
> be paying him for the next three years. I'm in no hurry to get rid of
> the guy. But these descriptions as a strike-throwing machine are a bit
> off. Only 33% of the runners on 3rd with less then 2 outs have scored
> against him. The Major League average is 53%. That's not skill; that's
> luck. This is like all of the people who tried to argue that Brian
> Bannister was this front of the rotation starter. He had a nice run
> with some luck, but at the end of the day, he, like Niese, is an average
> MLB starting pitcher. No more, no less.
>
>> So did I but they had a crappy SS in the middle.  And I think Davis,
>> not the defender of Olerud yet, but he seems much more mobile.
>
> Ordonez was not a crappy shortstop. Ordonez was overrated but he
> certainly didn't suck.
>
>> Pelfrey hasn't been so great the last two years.  He's been a little
>> above average..WITH the flashes of dominance.
>
> He has pitched better then Niese, no matter how you slice it.
>
>> That is a possibility.  That is a major reason I don't want to add more
>> aging pitchers.
>
> You and I will never argue that point. Trading young players for 30+
> year old pitchers and giving them big contracts is a bad investment. You
> know I'm not here beating my chest over Cliff Lee and/or Roy Oswalt. I
> want to stand pat too. I just don't want to sit here and proclaim
> greatness in young players and journeyman reclamation projects that I'm
> not sure have greatness as an upside.
>
>
>> It would have helped if they kept him in the minor leagues to start.  I
>> think they ended up hurting him and greatly reduced his chances of
>> making a major contribution in September.
>
> I think they botched the entire situation and I won't be stunned if his
> development is significantly affected. 20 year old pitchers are very
> fragile. This shifting them back and forth and up and down stuff is a
> recipe for disaster.
>
>
>> >> pitching will even further solidify.  Overall, they will pitch the
>> >> best baseball in NL, assuming that they don't completely screw up
>> >> the staff
>>
>> > Seriously?  You really believe that?  You know the Padres and Giants
>> > play in the NL too right?
>>
>> Strangely enough, I think the Giants might be the most dangerous team
>> in the league, but I don't think their 5 starters compare well to the
>> Mets.
>
> You're kidding right? Can I trade Santana, Pelfrey, and whoever for
> Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez right now? I'd make that deal in a
> heartbeat. It's not even a competition. I like Niese and Dickey better
> then Zito and Wellemeyer simply because Zito's contract sucks. You're
> nuts to make that statement. The Giants starters lead the league in
> Average Game Score. They're #3 in Quality Start %. They outrank the
> Mets in basically every category, including ERA+ by nearly 20%,
> suggesting it's not just the ballpark.

Yeah - and the Mets started the season with Perez and Maine in the
rotation and STILL have a league leading 11 Team Shutouts.

Ruben
From: Ruben Safir on
On Tue, 29 Jun 2010 05:58:37 -0700, jonathan wrote:

>> 1/5 games have been shutout baseball at the bottom of the pitching
>> rotation.  That is darn good, in addition to the top of the routation.
>>
>> If you have a pitcher with 30 starts and he is throwing shutouts 20% of
>> the time that would be 6 shutouts for the year..not bad.  I'd take that
>> from the entire staff and throw 30 shutouts over the season.
>
> Good point. I concede this one. Still, you are over the top, because
> I'm not ready to annoint a top-of-the-rotation starter mantle to a guy
> who's allowed more then a H/IP with a sub 7.0 K/9 and a 35-year old
> journeyman knuckleballer.
>
>> > I really don't feel like teaching you what BABIP is.  I think you
>> > know.  Want to tell me Jack Morris pitched to the score too?
>>
>> I don't care about Morris, unless he was also my #3 pitcher..  I care
>> that Neise is letting his fielders work for him and is throwing the
>> ball over the plate DESPITE the pitching coach.  The more he does that,
>> the more he will win.
>
> Well yes, throwing strikes helps a lot. Unfortunately, missing bats
> helps more. Niese's swinging strike percentage is 14%, which is a
> career high. The MLB average is 15%. His overall strike % is 63%,
> which is the MLB average.
>
> I've said over and over again that I think Niese is a nice league
> average starter and well worth the league minimum salary the Mets will
> be paying him for the next three years. I'm in no hurry to get rid of
> the guy. But these descriptions as a strike-throwing machine are a bit
> off. Only 33% of the runners on 3rd with less then 2 outs have scored
> against him. The Major League average is 53%. That's not skill; that's
> luck. This is like all of the people who tried to argue that Brian
> Bannister was this front of the rotation starter. He had a nice run
> with some luck, but at the end of the day, he, like Niese, is an average
> MLB starting pitcher. No more, no less.
>
>> So did I but they had a crappy SS in the middle.  And I think Davis,
>> not the defender of Olerud yet, but he seems much more mobile.
>
> Ordonez was not a crappy shortstop. Ordonez was overrated but he
> certainly didn't suck.
>
>> Pelfrey hasn't been so great the last two years.  He's been a little
>> above average..WITH the flashes of dominance.
>
> He has pitched better then Niese, no matter how you slice it.
>
>> That is a possibility.  That is a major reason I don't want to add more
>> aging pitchers.
>
> You and I will never argue that point. Trading young players for 30+
> year old pitchers and giving them big contracts is a bad investment. You
> know I'm not here beating my chest over Cliff Lee and/or Roy Oswalt. I
> want to stand pat too. I just don't want to sit here and proclaim
> greatness in young players and journeyman reclamation projects that I'm
> not sure have greatness as an upside.
>
>
>> It would have helped if they kept him in the minor leagues to start.  I
>> think they ended up hurting him and greatly reduced his chances of
>> making a major contribution in September.
>
> I think they botched the entire situation and I won't be stunned if his
> development is significantly affected. 20 year old pitchers are very
> fragile. This shifting them back and forth and up and down stuff is a
> recipe for disaster.
>
>
>> >> pitching will even further solidify.  Overall, they will pitch the
>> >> best baseball in NL, assuming that they don't completely screw up
>> >> the staff
>>
>> > Seriously?  You really believe that?  You know the Padres and Giants
>> > play in the NL too right?
>>
>> Strangely enough, I think the Giants might be the most dangerous team
>> in the league, but I don't think their 5 starters compare well to the
>> Mets.
>
> You're kidding right? Can I trade Santana, Pelfrey, and whoever for
> Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez right now? I'd make that deal in a
> heartbeat. It's not even a competition. I like Niese and Dickey better
> then Zito and Wellemeyer simply because Zito's contract sucks. You're
> nuts to make that statement. The Giants starters lead the league in
> Average Game Score. They're #3 in Quality Start %. They outrank the
> Mets in basically every category, including ERA+ by nearly 20%,
> suggesting it's not just the ballpark.
>
> Come on Ruben . . .
>
>
>
>> > Tejada?  Seriously?  He doesn't walk and he has no power.  Even if he
>> > hit .300, it would be the emptiest .300 this side of Luis Castillo.
>>
>> He's already a lot better than Castillo and I'm not saying he is Joe
>> Morgan.  What I am saying is that he is going to, and presently is,
>> improving and that added offense will be significant.
>
> He's a better defender then Castillo because Castillo has no range. He's
> not a better offensive player. Castillo, who I hate, gets on base 35%
> of the time even when he sucks. Tejada has only managed to do that once
> above Rookie ball. Tejada has A LONG way to go before he's anything
> other then an offensive drain on a MLB lineup. Right now he's an out
> machine, and since you place no value on positional value, that makes
> him even worse because theoretically he should be evaluated regardless
> of the position he plays. So that means he REALLY REALLY SUCKS.

meanwhile over the last 10 days in his very short career he is
333 .389 .394 .783

If he continues to hit, and I think he will (although not at 333/389),
he'll add to the overall improved team offense. He needs to learn to
walk more.

Ruben
From: Ruben Safir on
On Tue, 29 Jun 2010 23:25:46 +0000, Ruben Safir wrote:

> Yeah - and the Mets started the season with Perez and Maine in the
> rotation and STILL have a league leading 11 Team Shutouts.

But tonight won't be one of them. I HATE when they play in PR.

Ruben
From: Ruben Safir on
On Tue, 29 Jun 2010 08:58:32 -0700, jonathan wrote:


> This is from 2008:
>
> http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/whats-wrong-with-
johan-santana/
>
> Now add 2 more years and surgery . . .
>
> I won't argue anything about his competitiveness, but I think Johan
> Santana's Mets tenure is going to more closely resemble Pedro Martinez's
> Mets tenure then anything else. The Mets are basically paying Santana
> for his success in Minnesota.



this would be a great article if the darn charts made any sense
whatsoever.

Ruben
From: jonathan on

> Well unfortunately, you don't even have to look any further than the
> basic stats to see the problem now. If he could continue to pitch at the
> same level he did for 2008 and 2009 combined, that would be fine.
>
> But this year is another story altogether. His SO/9 ratio is only 5.7,
> way down from 7.9 the past 2 seasons, and a scary drop down from the 9.7
> that he averaged over his last 4 seasons with the Twins. And at the same
> time his BB/9 has been rising.
>
> Over his last 4 starts it gets even worse. 9 SO and 9 BB in 25.2
> innings with basically a 6 ERA. The more I look at that, the more I
> wonder if he's hurt right now. After all, he pitched hurt for portions
> of the last 2 seasons and didn't say anything..

Anything is possible, but if he's hurt, that would fit with the
pattern of a 30+ year old pitcher with a lot of mileage on his arm.
That's what happens.