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From: jonathan on 29 Jun 2010 08:58
> 1/5 games have been shutout baseball at the bottom of the pitching
> rotation.  That is darn good, in addition to the top of the routation.
>
> If you have a pitcher with 30 starts and he is throwing shutouts 20% of
> the time that would be 6 shutouts for the year..not bad.  I'd take that
> from the entire staff and throw 30 shutouts over the season.

Good point. I concede this one. Still, you are over the top, because
I'm not ready to annoint a top-of-the-rotation starter mantle to a guy
who's allowed more then a H/IP with a sub 7.0 K/9 and a 35-year old
journeyman knuckleballer.

> > I really don't feel like teaching you what BABIP is.  I think you
> > know.  Want to tell me Jack Morris pitched to the score too?
>
> I don't care about Morris, unless he was also my #3 pitcher..  I care that
> Neise is letting his fielders work for him and is throwing the ball over the
> plate DESPITE the pitching coach.  The more he does that, the more he will win.

Well yes, throwing strikes helps a lot. Unfortunately, missing bats
helps more. Niese's swinging strike percentage is 14%, which is a
career high. The MLB average is 15%. His overall strike % is 63%,
which is the MLB average.

I've said over and over again that I think Niese is a nice league
average starter and well worth the league minimum salary the Mets will
be paying him for the next three years. I'm in no hurry to get rid of
the guy. But these descriptions as a strike-throwing machine are a
bit off. Only 33% of the runners on 3rd with less then 2 outs have
scored against him. The Major League average is 53%. That's not
skill; that's luck. This is like all of the people who tried to argue
that Brian Bannister was this front of the rotation starter. He had a
nice run with some luck, but at the end of the day, he, like Niese, is
an average MLB starting pitcher. No more, no less.

> So did I but they had a crappy SS in the middle.  And I think Davis, not
> the defender of Olerud yet, but he seems much more mobile.

Ordonez was not a crappy shortstop. Ordonez was overrated but he
certainly didn't suck.

> Pelfrey hasn't been so great the last two years.  He's been a little
> above average..WITH the flashes of dominance.

He has pitched better then Niese, no matter how you slice it.

> That is a possibility.  That is a major reason I don't want to add more
> aging pitchers.

You and I will never argue that point. Trading young players for 30+
year old pitchers and giving them big contracts is a bad investment.
You know I'm not here beating my chest over Cliff Lee and/or Roy
Oswalt. I want to stand pat too. I just don't want to sit here and
proclaim greatness in young players and journeyman reclamation
projects that I'm not sure have greatness as an upside.

>
> It would have helped if they kept him in the minor leagues to start.  I
> think they ended up hurting him and greatly reduced his chances of
> making a major contribution in September.

I think they botched the entire situation and I won't be stunned if
his development is significantly affected. 20 year old pitchers are
very fragile. This shifting them back and forth and up and down stuff
is a recipe for disaster.

>
> >> pitching will even further solidify.  Overall, they will pitch the best
> >> baseball in NL, assuming that they don't completely screw up the staff
>
> > Seriously?  You really believe that?  You know the Padres and Giants
> > play in the NL too right?
>
> Strangely enough, I think the Giants might be the most dangerous team in
> the league, but I don't think their 5 starters compare well to the Mets.

You're kidding right? Can I trade Santana, Pelfrey, and whoever for
Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez right now? I'd make that deal in a
heartbeat. It's not even a competition. I like Niese and Dickey
better then Zito and Wellemeyer simply because Zito's contract sucks.
You're nuts to make that statement. The Giants starters lead the
league in Average Game Score. They're #3 in Quality Start %. They
outrank the Mets in basically every category, including ERA+ by nearly
20%, suggesting it's not just the ballpark.

Come on Ruben . . .



> > Tejada?  Seriously?  He doesn't walk and he has no power.  Even if he
> > hit .300, it would be the emptiest .300 this side of Luis Castillo.
>
> He's already a lot better than Castillo and I'm not saying he is Joe
> Morgan.  What I am saying is that he is going to, and presently is,
> improving and that added offense will be significant.

He's a better defender then Castillo because Castillo has no range.
He's not a better offensive player. Castillo, who I hate, gets on
base 35% of the time even when he sucks. Tejada has only managed to
do that once above Rookie ball. Tejada has A LONG way to go before
he's anything other then an offensive drain on a MLB lineup. Right
now he's an out machine, and since you place no value on positional
value, that makes him even worse because theoretically he should be
evaluated regardless of the position he plays. So that means he
REALLY REALLY SUCKS.

From: Ruben Safir on 29 Jun 2010 13:24

From: Margaret Richardson on 29 Jun 2010 16:36
On Jun 29, 8:58 am, jonathan <jmeri...(a)gmail.com> wrote:

[...]

> > That is a possibility.  That is a major reason I don't want to add more
> > aging pitchers.
>
> You and I will never argue that point.  Trading young players for 30+
> year old pitchers and giving them big contracts is a bad investment.
> You know I'm not here beating my chest over Cliff Lee and/or Roy
> Oswalt.  I want to stand pat too.  I just don't want to sit here and
> proclaim greatness in young players and journeyman reclamation
> projects that I'm not sure have greatness as an upside.
>
>

If you're looking at, say, a three-year window, Lee might have more
upside than Mejia.


>
> > It would have helped if they kept him in the minor leagues to start.  I
> > think they ended up hurting him and greatly reduced his chances of
> > making a major contribution in September.
>
> I think they botched the entire situation and I won't be stunned if
> his development is significantly affected.  20 year old pitchers are
> very fragile.  This shifting them back and forth and up and down stuff
> is a recipe for disaster.
>
>

Here's a thought: What if the Mets believe Matt Harvey is closer to
being a major-league ready starter than Mejia? Would that make Mejia
more expendable?

Also, let's suppose the Mets were to acquire this big-name, front-end
starter without surrendering Mejia: If they were to keep Niese as
their fourth starter (behind the newly acquired one, Santana and
Pelfrey), that would render Mejia, at best, as their fifth starter for
the immediate future.



>
> > >> pitching will even further solidify.  Overall, they will pitch the best
> > >> baseball in NL, assuming that they don't completely screw up the staff
>
> > > Seriously?  You really believe that?  You know the Padres and Giants
> > > play in the NL too right?
>
> > Strangely enough, I think the Giants might be the most dangerous team in
> > the league, but I don't think their 5 starters compare well to the Mets..
>
> You're kidding right?  Can I trade Santana, Pelfrey, and whoever for
> Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez right now?

How would Lee, Santana and Pelfrey stack up against Lincecum, Cain and
Sanchez? I'd certainly take the former if the teams' respective
offensives were to be considered in the equation.



 I'd make that deal in a
> heartbeat.  It's not even a competition.  I like Niese and Dickey
> better then Zito and Wellemeyer simply because Zito's contract sucks.
> You're nuts to make that statement.  The Giants starters lead the
> league in Average Game Score.  They're #3 in Quality Start %.  They
> outrank the Mets in basically every category, including ERA+ by nearly
> 20%, suggesting it's not just the ballpark.
>
> Come on Ruben . . .
>
> > > Tejada?  Seriously?  He doesn't walk and he has no power.  Even if he
> > > hit .300, it would be the emptiest .300 this side of Luis Castillo.
>
> > He's already a lot better than Castillo and I'm not saying he is Joe
> > Morgan.  What I am saying is that he is going to, and presently is,
> > improving and that added offense will be significant.
>
> He's a better defender then Castillo because Castillo has no range.
> He's not a better offensive player.  Castillo, who I hate, gets on
> base 35% of the time even when he sucks.  Tejada has only managed to
> do that once above Rookie ball.  Tejada has A LONG way to go before
> he's anything other then an offensive drain on a MLB lineup.

While what you're saying is true, don't forget the context: Tejada is
posting a .308 OBP as a part-time player in the bigs at age 20. In
AAA, at age 20, his OBP was .341; at 19 in AA, it was .351. Those are
significant numbers when you factor in his age.

When Tejada was last playing with people his own age -- in the rookie
leagues at age 17 -- he posted OBPs over .400.


 
From: Ruben Safir on 29 Jun 2010 19:11
On Tue, 29 Jun 2010 05:19:43 -0700, jonathan wrote:

> On Jun 29, 12:07 am, Ruben Safir <ru...(a)mrbrklyn.com> wrote:
>> On Mon, 28 Jun 2010 20:48:18 -0700, jonathan wrote:
>> > Name one.  Be very careful here; you're the one who used the term
>> > 'dominating'.  Don't give me Jaime Moyer.  I want to see somebody
>> > else who put up a 174 ERA+ after having NEVER CLEARED 100 in any
>> > previous major league season.
>>
>> Mike Scott
>
> Is Dickey going to cheat too?

Isn't that what a Knuckle ball is?

>
> Also, Scott was 31, not 35. Scott was washed up at 35.

so?

Ruben
From: Ruben Safir on 29 Jun 2010 19:14
On Tue, 29 Jun 2010 05:25:07 -0700, jonathan wrote:


> You're using isolated examples. Any player who can get to the major
> league level is capable of making great defensive plays. That's why
> they can play Major League Baseball. If I did the research and watched
> every game Mike Piazza played at first base, I can find diving stops and
> great pickups.

can you find a driving catch on a bunt about 8 feet from the plate
followed up with a throwout DP?

Ruben
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