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From: HTP on 12 Apr 2010 11:51
On Apr 12, 6:47 am, RJA <agentvau...(a)gmail.com> wrote:
> On Apr 11, 9:38 pm, eddyg...(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > What impressed me about Leake today was his ability to paint both sides
> > of the plate. He isn't going to blow people away but his ball sure does
> > have significant ball movement. I even thought he got squeezed a few
> > times by the home plate ump and to his credit he never showed his
> > displeasure. Poise from a 22 year old guy is quite nice to see. He takes
> > nothing for granted. I heard WJ say he was unloading the equipment truck
> > in Arizona. Quite nice to be humble.
>
> > Another bonus is his ability to work quickly, this Gibson like trait
> > will benefit the defense immensely. I really like this guy and see no
> > reason to rush Volquez back so quickly. Unlike last year the starting
> > pitching depth seems to be for real. Talk to me after June 15 on that
> > one. That time last year was when the pitching went south in a hurry.
>
> > With all the young arms and people in this group showing their concerns
> > for innings pitched, a six man rotation might not sound so far-fetched.
> > But then again injuries always seem to straighten things out in the long
> > run.
>
> > Gomes is a very professional hitter and a hard nosed player. He is an
> > asset to any team. One of my biggest concerns thus far is 1-2 in the
> > order. I just don't see this as being a positive on this team.
>
> I don't know how you can say that if you've been watching.  Gomes
> can't hit a breaking ball, and chases some really bad pitches as
> well.  Professional hitter isn't something I'd call him.  More like,
> hacker.- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

Exactly. There are very good reasons why he's never been able to hold
down a full time job and was unable to get a major league contract
over the winter. He's generally viewed as the free-swinging
righthanded half of a platoon.
From: HTP on 12 Apr 2010 12:07
On Apr 12, 7:35 am, eddyg...(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote:
>  Every Reds hitter through 6 games looks like a hacker. They have been
> very undisciplined at the plate thus far. The reason I Call Gomes a
> professional hitter is that he does the little things in producing runs.
> Case in point, the insurance run he so deftly provided a couple of days
> ago.
>
> A professional hitter plays situational baseball and knows when to swing
> hard and when to just make contact. If I was to judge someone only on
> the last 6 games, Joey Votto would be considered a hacker too. He has
> had the most horrific swings I have ever seen through the first 6 games
> of a season.


hmm,

i pointed out a few times last year when you were getting on Bruce for
his strikeouts that Votto was striking out just as often. People tend
to overlook k rates when a guys hitting .325. But thats really a
double standard. If they are a solvable problem for a guy hitting .210
then the same should apply to a guy hitting .310.

Last years k/pa rates:

Jay Bruce 75/387 = 19.4%
Joey Votto 106/544 = 19.5%

identical

professional hitter Johnny Gomes 85/314 = 27.1% to lead the team

also:

Dickerson 66/299 = 22.1%
Lance Nix 81/337 = 24%

Imagine that. Of those 5 hitters, Jay Bruce was actually the toughest
to strike out.

I personally dont put all that much stock in them. Striking out is a
by-product of seeing alot of pitches and hitting with power. Lots of
great hitters struck out alot. Its probably better than popping up the
first pitch.

I predict that when Votto gets his average over .300 then that will
be the end of the criticism of his being a hacker, despite the fact
that he's striking out as frequently as anyone else.

>
> Also keep in mind when watching Gomes, he doesn't play every day and it
> is hard to maintain a good swing this way. Especially in the beginning
> of the season.

There are good reasons that he doesnt play every day.

From: HTP on 12 Apr 2010 12:42
On Apr 11, 7:01 pm, tom dunne <dunn...(a)gmail.com> wrote:
> On Apr 11, 9:38 pm, eddyg...(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote:
>
> > Another bonus is his ability to work quickly, this Gibson like trait
> > will benefit the defense immensely. I really like this guy and see no
> > reason to rush Volquez back so quickly. Unlike last year the starting
> > pitching depth seems to be for real. Talk to me after June 15 on that
> > one. That time last year was when the pitching went south in a hurry.
>
> That's a real good point, John.  If Leake's as good as he looked today
> (and really, he's better than all those walks), there's no hurry on

yes. His command was not there. His maturity was however.


> Volquez.  The real question is what do you do with Aroldis Chapman?
> We know the Reds can't dump Harang or Arroyo because of salaries.
> Homer is out of options now, so you can't send him to the minors.  Do
> you demote Cueto to make room?  Do you try to make a trade and gamble
> that Chapman can handle a full year of pitching at the Major League
> level?
>
> Either way, it's a hell of a problem to have.  Who can believe the
> Reds have too much starting pitching!  Imagine next year, if Volquez
> returns to form and the other guys develop as hoped - you've got a
> rotation of Volquez, Cueto, Chapman, Bailey and Leake.  Those are some
> young guns the likes of which this franchise has never seen.  The Reds
> also free up something like $25 million in salary, with Arroyo and
> Harang gone.  2011 could be a really good year.

If you think about where the Reds organization was a year ago with
regards to pitching and how things have changed since then its being
quite a ride.

Last years April rotation was Harang/Arroyo/Cueto/Volquez/Owings.
Volquez was coming off an all-star season. It was a solid rotation,
especially if Harang and Owings could return to form.

The top pitching prospects in the minors coming into the season were
Homer Bailey, Matt maloney, and Kyle Lotzkar. Travis Wood had fallen
off the prospect radar after a dreadful 2008 at AA.

By Aug 1, Volquez had sustained a serious injury and was projected to
miss 12 months, Owings was clearly not a starter. Harang still was not
the pitcher of 2 years before. Arroyo had an era over 5.00. Cueto was
one of the best pitchers in the league in the first half but was
tailing off badly. Homer Bailey and Matt maloney were both given shots
at the majors and had failed. In the minors, Lotzkar had gotten hurt
and hadnt thrown a pitch all year.

On the bright side, Travis Wood had learned a cutter and had
dominated AA hitters and moved up to AAA.

When Volquez went down i felt the club was in deep trouble for 2010.
I was ready to give up on Bailey at that point also.

Since then:
Bailey turned his career around. Arroyo began taking his carpal
tunnel problem more seriously and finished as one of the leagues best
pitchers. The Reds drafted a college pitcher who turned out to be
major league ready (actually drafted in June). Then came the stunning
signing of Aroldis Chapman, and he's almost ready to pitch in the
majors if a spot were to open.

A couple years ago, i thought that Cueto and Volquez were absolute
keys to this teams future and they are almost afterthoughts now. I
have to keep reminding myself that these guys are still here and
cheap.

If the Reds needed to add a player this summer, they can offer up
someone like Travis Wood and not really feel it at the top end of the
organization because of the current depth. Based on his spring and his
2009 season, and the fact that he's a lefty, i think they could get a
good return for him if he headlined a package.

Its looking really really good right now for the present and they next
couple years, at least from a pitching standpoint, and folks should be
appreciative of what Walt and his guys have been able to do.



From: JustTom on 15 Apr 2010 09:16
On Sun, 11 Apr 2010 19:01:34 -0700 (PDT), tom dunne
<dunnetg(a)gmail.com> wrote:

>
>That's a real good point, John. If Leake's as good as he looked today
>(and really, he's better than all those walks), there's no hurry on
>Volquez. The real question is what do you do with Aroldis Chapman?
>We know the Reds can't dump Harang or Arroyo because of salaries.
>Homer is out of options now, so you can't send him to the minors. Do
>you demote Cueto to make room? Do you try to make a trade and gamble
>that Chapman can handle a full year of pitching at the Major League
>level?
>

I'm starting to warm up to the notion of a 6 man rotation for a while.
Theoretically, Chapman and Leake are both going to be limited in
their innings this year. I've seen quotes I think that are from the
FO that say Chapman's minor league career is planned to be 6-8 starts
max before they bring him up. Factoring that in, frankly, it seems a
shame to waste Chapman's in the minors, and then we're short at the
end of the year , arb time be damned.

Crazy idea to have both Chapman and Leake around to max out their
starting period with the big club with starts and long relief tuneups
every now and then? Then if Cueto or Bailey continue to struggle, we
have some alternatives.

It's not like our offense would miss a Cairo. Or maybe the pen could
come up a Lincoln short?

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