This One is For Gnork
in [Boston Red Sox]
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From: Wayback1918 on 9 Jun 2010 05:49 On Jun 9, 12:30 am, NK wrote: > On Mon, 7 Jun 2010 04:39:11 -0700 (PDT), Wayback1918 > > <wayback1...(a)verizon.net> wrote: > >This a run expectation chart for 2005. (It changes a little from year > >to to year but not much.) > > I've seen other years where the runs expectation with runners on 2 > and 3 with one out were higher than the runs expectation with runners > on 1 and 2 with zero outs. But in any case, the "runs expectation" > doesn't tell the whole story, sometimes the frequency of scoring at > least one run in a situation is what's important. Now, I'm not saying > that managers are generally aware of how frequently at least one run > will be scored in various situations, I don't really think they are. > I'm just saying that those stats might not be relevant in late inning > situations, expecially in the bottom of the 9th. > > -- > NK Yes. I have read that somewhere. The sacrifice in some situations can slightly increase your chance to score one run but drastically decrease your chance of scoring multiple runs. .....but that doesn't make those stats irrelevant.... just that you should have the addtional information as well.
From: nate on 9 Jun 2010 13:46 On Jun 8, 1:16 pm, The Gnorkmeister <gn...(a)yahoo.com> wrote: > > Too often the so called "successful" bunt attempts lead to no runs. > Then the bevy of bunting buffoons usually fully ignore the positive > things that might have happened had the hitter swung away....[]... you are ignoring the BAD thing that can happen if it's V-Mart or Lowell or Ellsbury swing away - the batter could ground into a double play, killing the inning. sometimes, in the old days, before the DH, i would just hope that my pitcher would simply strike out rather than hit the ball into play, on the ground for a double play. a strikeout is so much better an outcome than a GIDP. you rarely see a bunt attempt get turned into a GIDP. - nate :-o
From: nate on 9 Jun 2010 13:53 On Jun 8, 2:54 pm, "Dano" <janeandd...(a)yahoo.com> wrote: > I don't wish to have to hire managers from MIT or CalTech > or someplace...or even to have some number guy in the dugout > crunching the numbers for him as to who to put into the game. see - you want to take away a dream job of mine. BOO ON YOU! ;-) you dont have to watch the geek in the dugout... if they bring in a pitcher Z to face batter A on a lefty-righty basis, and the manager, without consulting his dugout geek, pinch hits batter B to undo the righty-lefty ploy, he may be making a beeeg mistake. he should check. maybe A is hitting a whopping .778 against Z while B is only hitting .133. most of the time, the book ploy will be the right ploy, but not always. :-/ - nate
From: nate on 9 Jun 2010 13:54 On Jun 8, 2:54 pm, "Dano" <janeandd...(a)yahoo.com> wrote: > When it reaches th[e] point...where the manager must sit and gaze at > his lap top instead of watching the play unfold in front of him...I'm out.. > Paralysis by analysis is the phrase that leaps to mind for me. just to be clear, i completely agree with this, Dano! - nate
From: The Gnorkmeister on 9 Jun 2010 17:12
On Jun 9, 10:46 am, nate <greyst...(a)net1plus.com> wrote: > On Jun 8, 1:16 pm, The Gnorkmeister <gn...(a)yahoo.com> wrote: > > > > > Too often the so called "successful" bunt attempts lead to no runs. > > Then the bevy of bunting buffoons usually fully ignore the positive > > things that might have happened had the hitter swung away....[]... > > you are ignoring the BAD thing that can happen if it's V-Mart or > Lowell or Ellsbury swing away - the batter could ground into a double > play, killing the inning. > > sometimes, in the old days, before the DH, i would just hope that my > pitcher would simply strike out rather than hit the ball into play, on > the ground for a double play. a strikeout is so much better an > outcome than a GIDP. > > you rarely see a bunt attempt get turned into a GIDP. > Probably no more rarely than McDonald has GIPD with Boston. That number is ONE in 139 PAs. Obviously many of those PAs came in situations where a GIDP was not possible, but that is still a low rate. Further, the computer analysis certainly considers DP likelihood in arriving at the likely number of runs scored. The Red Sox and especially Victor Martinez have improved a lot at avoiding GIDP. After 25 games or so Martinez was on pace for over 60 on the season and the Red Sox led the AL. Now the Sox are only 5 in GIDP. The Twins lead. Player..................GIDP..........................PA Beltre 10 236 Martinez 9 213 Scutaro 9 274 Pedroia 7 276 Ortiz 6 190 Lowell 4 79 Youkilis 3 258 Drew 2 229 Cameron 1 63 McDonald 1 139 Hall 1 117 Hermida 0 146 Varitek 0 79 Beltre keeps a very steady pace between walking and grounding into DPs. Last year he had 19 of each. So far this year he has 11 walks to go with 10 GIDPs. He also has 11 errors, but that is only because official scorers have been lenient with him. |