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From: David Short on 10 Oct 2009 09:56 "HTP" <tmbowman25(a)yahoo.com> wrote in message news:b9f7fed4-cc04-47fd-8e3d-cdcf01cc8632(a)b2g2000yqi.googlegroups.com... >On Oct 9, 8:27 pm, John Kasupski <w2...(a)spamfilter.verizon.net> wrote: >7. ARod hits a clutch homerun against the Twins (OK thats not relevent >to this but still...) > >8. JohnK responds with a long rambling diatribe against Henry while >simutaneously dancing around henrys point Oh. I had not made the connection. John's stuff is usually caustic, but this seemed far overboard. That does make sense. When does A-Rod get the post season choker label lifted? >LOL! I copied and pasted straight from the Baseball Prospectus site, >which i mentioned, and they provide a source for the quote - CHICAGO >DAILY HERALD. I think the prospectus folks are truly coasting on the sites name now. I won't pay for them anymore. >3. Why does the starting shortstop, regardless of who it is, more >often than not hit in the 2nd spot in Dusty Bakers lineups? Because the shortstop always hits after the centerfielder? dfs
From: John Kasupski on 10 Oct 2009 19:45 OK. Henry, first of all...I apologize for the tone of my previous post in this thread. Baseball is...something that I'm very passionate about. I hold some pretty strong opinions about things related to baseball and sometimes I just get a little too caught up in things and I guess I forget that it's only a game. My position here, minus all the vitriol, is that the problem isn't Dusty Baker, it's the Reds lack of a suitable leadoff hitter. They tried to get one by signing Taveras. He flopped. Well, the signing was a gamble. Taveras had a season in 2007 where his OBP was .367, he hit .320 and stole 33 bags. He had a 2008 in which his BA and OBP went down by a lot, though he still swiped 68 bases, but the point is that it was a roll of the dice. He was signed in the hope that he would return to 2007 form. I thought he actually did pretty well until June. Still, the gamble didn't pay off. But it's the GM, not the field manager, who goes out and signs the player. It would be great if the Reds had a .400 OBP leadoff hitter that Dusty could write in at the top of the lineup every day, but the Reds don't have one. Baker cannot put somebody on the lineup card who isn't on the roster. Perhaps Dickerson would have been a better choice. But how many field managers were there in the major leagues this year who played a guy making $400,000 over a guy that the general manager went out and signed at $2,250,000 specifically to play that position and hit in that spot in the order? I wouldn't think there were very many. Oh, one more thing...your question: >Why does the starting shortstop, regardless of who it is, more >often than not hit in the 2nd spot in Dusty Bakers lineups? He does? Heh...guess I picked the wrong year to quit amphetamines. I didn't see the starting shortstop regularly hitting in the two hole for the Reds this year until late August when Gonzalez was traded and Janish took over the position. By that time the Reds had played over 120 games, mostly with Dickerson or Hairston batting second. It was Hairston who hit second the most, and he was frequently doing so while playing 3B, 2B, or in outfield, not just at shortstop. JK
From: tom dunne on 10 Oct 2009 21:24 When I look at this Reds' roster, I think it's apparent that Walt Jocketty didn't give Dusty a lot of options for top-of-the-order hitters. I also think it's also apparent that of those options, Dusty most often chose the worst ones. Regardless of how anyone feels about the value of stolen bases or walks, I expect we can all agree that OBP is the single most important stat for a leadoff hitter. With that in mind, check out these numbers: ..302 ..302 ..383 ..326 ..339 ..321 ..328 ..308 ..223 Those are the 2009 Reds' on-base percentages by batting order, listed 1 through 9. Excluding the pitcher in the ninth slot, Dusty put his worst TWO on-base percentages at the top of the order all year long. He literally couldn't have made worse choices for getting runners on ahead of Votto and Phillips. Considering how little Taveras added in stolen bases, the Reds would have been better off batting the catcher first all season. Speaking of catchers, I think the most effective 1-2 for this team would have been Chris Dickerson leading off and Hannigan/Hernandez batting second. While his power evaporated this year, Dickerson still gets on base a lot - he has a .383 OBP in almost one full season of MLB at-bats, which would be fantastic at the top of the order. If you use Dickerson's career OBP against all the leadoff plate appearances this year's Reds had, they'd have gotten the leadoff hitter on base an additional 61 times. That's an incredible number of additional opportunities for Votto and Phillips to drive in runs. The catchers aren't ideal #2 hitters, but Dusty isn't moving Phillips out of the cleanup spot. Once the team traded for Rolen, he could have fit that spot as well. With the players on the roster at season's end, I'd probably hit them like this: 1 Dickerson CF 2 Phillips 2B 3 Votto 1B 4 Rolen 3B 5 Gomes LF 6 Bruce RF 7 Hannigan C 8 Janish SS 9 --------- P Stubbs showed awesome power in his time up, but I don't trust that (just like Dickerson's power surge in 2008, come to think of it) and he just doesn't get on base enough yet. I'm tempted to go with Rolen- Votto-Gomes/Bruce as my 2-3-4, but I don't know that I can rely on those cleanup hitters - they both seem very streaky and could make for an ugly middle-of-the-order dry spell. It's also appealing to have Phillips running behind Dickerson atop the order, so I don't clog up my bases :)
From: David Short on 10 Oct 2009 22:02 "tom dunne" <dunnetg(a)gmail.com> wrote in message > Speaking of catchers, I think the most effective 1-2 for this team > would have been Chris Dickerson leading off and Hannigan/Hernandez > batting second. It's not clear to me what Ryan Hannigan's offensive production really will be. Hitters in the 8 slot in the NL tend to see a real blip in OBP simply because there's no reason to give them anything to hit with the pitcher up behind them. It seems to me that Hannigan got this kind of boost this year. dfs
From: tom dunne on 11 Oct 2009 01:29
On Oct 10, 10:02 pm, "David Short" <David.No.Sh...(a)Spam.Wright.Please.Edu> wrote: > "tom dunne" <dunn...(a)gmail.com> wrote in message > > Speaking of catchers, I think the most effective 1-2 for this team > > would have been Chris Dickerson leading off and Hannigan/Hernandez > > batting second. > > It's not clear to me what Ryan Hannigan's offensive production really will > be. Hitters in the 8 slot in the NL tend to see a real blip in OBP simply > because there's no reason to give them anything to hit with the pitcher up > behind them. It seems to me that Hannigan got this kind of boost this year. Right, but consider the competition. The 2009 Reds dedicated the majority of the second slot ABs to a combination of Hairston, Janish, Gonzalez and McDonald. All Hannigan has to do is get on base more often than that group and he's an upgrade. Lop 50 points off his OBP and he still outperforms the hitters that Dusty put out there. Also, FWIW, Hannigan's OBP in 110 PA through 07-08 was .366. This year, in almost 300 PA, it was .361 and he's a career .383 OBP in the minors. He's walked more than he's struckout for his career as well. He did have 7 IBB last year, but I think a .340ish OBP from him is realistic. |