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From: tom dunne on 8 Oct 2009 23:44
On Oct 8, 10:08 pm, "David Short"
<David.No.Sh...(a)Spam.Wright.Please.Edu> wrote:
> "tom dunne" <dunn...(a)gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> news:62a80a71-dcb1-4853-90f5-7ef2b2345c6f(a)m18g2000vbs.googlegroups.com...
>
>
>
> >Stubbs's power in the majors wasn't really that out of line with what
> >he did in his minor league career before this year.  From what I hear,
> >the coaches at Louisville tried to get him to walk more and strike out
> >less, but it seemed to just sap his power.  He clearly spent his time
> >in the majors swinging for the fences, and had decent results.
>
> That's not what I saw. He wasn't overswinging. He's a strong guy. When he
> makes good contact, it goes a long way.

I don't mean that he was overswinging, but that he was simply cutting
loose rather than trying to moderate his swing. Natural rather than
calculated. But eh, I don't know, I didn't see a lot of his games.
All I know is that his MLB numbers look a lot more like what he did in
2006-2008 ball than what he showed at Louisville this year.

> >Aside
> >from his speed, his style of play makes me think he's best suited
> >lower in the order.  Of course, he's a center fielder, which means
> >he's automatically the leadoff man on a Dusty Baker team.
>
> He's as well suited to the role as anybody on the roster.

Yep, just about as well as Brandon Phillips is suited to the clean-up
spot. This team is Joey Votto and a bunch of guys who ought to be
batting fifth or sixth in any lineup that's worth a damn.
From: John Kasupski on 9 Oct 2009 00:21
On Thu, 8 Oct 2009 16:23:23 -0700, eddygdvd(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote:

>In regard to Stubbs, I just hope he doesn't get power happy due to his
>recent power surge. We all know it is dangerous for a lead-off hitter to
>think homerun first, especially one who has a propensity to strike out
>as much as Stubbs ...

....then again, Rickey henderson hit more leadoff home runs than anyone else in
the history of the game, and is now in the Hall of Fame.

>I would find it interesting to know how much the Reds hitters strikeout
>out in comparison to the rest of MLB?

Somebody else already answered this downthread.

>also heard Ron Darling mention a pitching stat I was not aware of that
>they kept. It has to do with the shut down inning. The inning a pitcher
>goes to the mound after his team has scored and his ability to shut down
>the opposition in the next inning. I am curious to know the major league
>average ERA and Reds team ERA on this stat?Also curious about Mr.
>Harang's ERA in this situation and how they all stack up? I know John K.
>can get this stuff done in a flash... I always thought this was a key to
>a pitchers success..

I haven't been able to find any FREE source of baseball stats on the net that
list this stat. One would probably have to go to someplace such as Baseball
prospectus, Stats LLC, Elias Sports Bureau, or somewhere like that where they
want you to join their site or pay for access to the information that they have.
Not that I'm against somebody trying to earn a living, but sorry, they're not
going to earn it out of my wallet. And I'm not about to scour the game logs for
hundreds of MLB pitchers to come up with this myself.

However...from Aaron Harang's game logs on Baseball-Reference.com:

Apr. 6 - Reds did not score while Harang was in the game.

Apr. 12 - Reds scored in the 1st, Harang blanked the Pirates in the second...as
well as in each of the other eight innings.

Apr. 18 - Reds did not score at all.

Apr. 23 - Reds scored in the top of the fourth, sixth, and seventh innings. Cubs
scored one run off Harang in the bottom of the sixth and no runs in the other
two innings.

Apr. 28 - The Reds scored in the bottom of the first, Harang gave that run back
in the top of the second.

May 4 - Reds scored two in the top of the 7th, Harang pitcvhed a shutout inning
in the bottom of the inning.

May 9 - Reds scored in the bottom of the 1st and 6th innings. Cardinals scored
nothing in the top of the second and one run in the top of the seventh (which
Dennys Reyes promptly gave back in the bottom of the inning).

May 15 - Reds scored in the top of the 5th and 6th innings. Padres did not score
in bottom of the fifth, scored one in the bottom of the sixth. Pads won, 5-3.

May 20 - Reds scored in bottom of 1st, 2nd, 3rd innings. Phillies did not score
in top of 2nd or 3rd but scored one in top of fourth.

May 25 - Reds scored in bottom of 1st, and 4th, Harang allowed no runs in top of
2nd or 5th.

May 30 - Reds scored in top of 1st, Harang gave back all three runs in bottom of
inning. Reds scored in top of 2nd and 4th, Harang allowed no runs in bottom of
either inning.

June 4 - Reds scored in top of eighth, Harang blanked the Cardinals in the
bottom of the inning.

Jun. 10 - Reds scored in top of 2nd inning, Harang blanked Nationals in bottom
of inning.

Jun. 16 - Reds scored in bottom of 1st, Harang blanked Braves in top of 2nd.

Jun. 21 - Reds did not score while Harang was in the game.

Jun. 26 - Reds did not score while Harang was in the game.

Jul. 2 - Reds scored in bottom of fourth, Harang blanked D-Backs in top of 5th.

Jul. 7 - Reds scored in top of 4th and 6th, Harang allowed no runs in bottom of
either inning.

Jul. 12 - Reds did not score while Harang was in the game.

Jul. 18 - Reds scored in bottom of 5th, Harang blanked Brewers in top of 6th.

Jul. 24 - Reds scored 3 in top of 2nd, Cubs scored 1 in bottom of 2nd.

Jul. 29 - Reds scored in bottom of 4th, Harang blanked Padres in top of 5th.

Aug. 3 - Reds scored 3 in top of 2nd, Harang blanked Cubs in bottom of inning.
Reds scored one in top of eighth, harang gave that one back in bottom of inning.

Aug. 9 - Reds scored in top of 1st, 4th, and 5th; Harang blanked Giants in
bottom of each of those innings.

Aug. 14 - Reds did not score at all.

Aug. 20 - Reds did not score while Harang was in the game.

Observations:

1. "Reds did not score while Harang was in the game" (or did not score at all)
seems to be a recurring theme in there, doesn't it? This happened in 7 of his 26
starts. It's kind of hard for a pitcher to post wins when his team's offense
takes the entire night off 26.9% of the time.

2. By my count, there were 23 instances in which the Reds scored and Harang
followed by putting up a goose egg in the half-inning that immediately followed,
and only 8 instances where the Reds scored and Harang allowed the opposing team
to score in the half-inning that immediately followed, That's 74.1% of the time
that Harang slammed the door in this situation. Wish I could tell you what the
league average is, but I'm not going to pay Elias et al out of my pocket to
answer someone else's inquiry. Nothing personal, you understand.

3. Harang pitched 162-1/3 innings and in only 31 of those innings did his
teammates bother to chip in with any run support. Which means that 80.9% of the
time, when Harang walked out to the mound, he'd just finished watching the Reds'
offense lay YABE* - or it was the first inning of a home game, and he was
walking out there with the knowledge that the odds were heavily in favor of him
getting to watch them lay YABE* in the bottom half of the inning.

Yet, this guy bought the clubhouse attendants at GABP a $6500 custom-made
souped-up six-seat golf cart out of his own pocket. Gee, I wonder why he didn't
buy the Reds' hitters anything? :-)

JK

(* = Yet Another Bleeping Egg)
From: john smith on 9 Oct 2009 01:11
I guess Harang had very little run support. I just can't get past that
stretch from mid June to mid august where he went 1-9 with an ERA of
around 5. The team tanked during this stretch and so did he to a degree
even with the lack of run support..

I admit I don't like the guy because guys like George Grande always talk
about him as an ace. His stuff used to be much better and he has had big
trouble against lefties the past two years. He has always been a class
guy and I always hoped he would become a better pitcher. I would be
ecstatic if he went 15-10 next year and was the # 3 man on the staff...

For the Reds in 2010, Bailey and somebody else have to step up big time
and carry a big load starting pitching wise for the Reds to get
serious...

From: John Kasupski on 9 Oct 2009 03:37
On Thu, 8 Oct 2009 22:11:53 -0700, eddygdvd(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote:

>I guess Harang had very little run support. I just can't get past that
>stretch from mid June to mid august where he went 1-9 with an ERA of
>around 5. The team tanked during this stretch and so did he to a degree
>even with the lack of run support..

It was 1-10 from May 30 through August 20, after which his appendix blew up and
he went on the DL for the rest of the year. However, during that stretch there
were four games that the Reds won where Harang got a no-decision, and in seven
of those ten losses, the Reds scored a total of eight runs. Then in his last
start of the season he allowed only one run, but got another no-decision.

Also, his ERA on May 30 was 4.19 and at one point after seven straight starts
without a win, he actually had it down to 3.86 on July 2 before finishing the
year at 4.21 - so there's no way his ERA during that stretch was above 5.

Anyway, that's why you can't really judge pitchers by their won-lost records.
Harang gave the Reds a quality start (6 or more innings pitched with three or
fewer earned runs allowed) 14 times (out of 26 starts) and got six wins to show
for it. Turn half the eight losses into the wins that he actually deserves for
those efforts, and he's at 10-10. Cueto went 11-11 and everybody's thrilled.

Plus you get instances like on Opening Day, where Harang gives up a run in the
fifth, Herrera gives up another in the sixth, the Reds score a run in the sixth
and lose 2-1, and Harang takes the loss, even though it was the run charged to
Hererra that gave the Mets one more run than the Reds scored in that game, not
the run Harang allowed. After Harang left, Herrera could have given up 200 runs,
and the Reds could have scored 198, but Harang still gets tagged with the loss
unless the Reds tie the game at some point..

You can't necessarily judge pitchers by their ERAs, either, because stuff
happens like, for example, what went down on May 15 in San Diego. In the bottom
of the 7th with the Reds leading the Padres 3-2. with one out and runners at the
corners, Harang gives up a game-tying single to David Eckstein. Art Rhodes comes
in and walks the only batter he faces. Then Stormy Weathers comes in and gives
up an RBI single, followed by a sac fly. The Reds lose 5-3. Harang is charged
with three runs (and with the loss), but if the bullpen does its job there, he
gets charged with only one run (and gets a no-decision). Meanwhile, you can
stamp FAIL on the efforts of Rhodes and Weathers in this game - yet no runs get
charged to their ERAs.

>I don't like the guy because guys like George Grande always talk
>about him as an ace. His stuff used to be much better and he has had big
>trouble against lefties the past two years.

In 2006 and 2007, he was the bona-fide ace of the staff, and he pitched like it,
but these last two years... :(

As for the lart about lefty hitters, last year this was true - lefties hit .299
off him as opposed to .273 by right-handers. But this year, John, left-handed
hitters hit .285 off Harang while right-handed hitters actually did slightly
better, batting .289 against him. Now, if the league is hitting .280-something
off you, you're not doing something right no matter which side of the plate
they're standing on, but it's not just lefties doing it.

What worries me about Harang is that since 2007 his WHIP has gone up from 1.14
in 2007 to 1.38 last year to 1.41 this year - he's now giving up a full two more
hits per nine innings than he was in 2007.

>He has always been a class
>guy and I always hoped he would become a better pitcher. I would be
>ecstatic if he went 15-10 next year and was the # 3 man on the staff...

I fully agree.

>For the Reds in 2010, Bailey and somebody else have to step up big time
>and carry a big load starting pitching wise for the Reds to get
>serious...

Yeah, I'm not as convinced as some other folks that the Reds' pitching is set
for 2010. It's better than it was in recent years, but still not championship
caliber when you consider Volquez is probably rehabbing all year and Harang is a
question mark. Arroyo will have his ups and downs, but when you check the back
of his card at the end of the year, he's had the best year of any of the guys in
the rotation. Cueto has had his moments but they're going to need him to have
that breakout year - and FWIW, I agree with Danny that they need to keep him
away from winter ball, and if they do I think he will have an excellent year.
Bailey finished the year looking like he's finally gotten it. Nobody else has
really proven jack yet.

So I think they'll have Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, question mark, question mark,
with the question marks probably being better than the detritus the Reds ran out
there earlier in the decade, and the bullpen is solid, so the pitching overall
is the best it's been in years. Whether it's enough to contend...well, maybe,
but scoring 2 or less runs a game, they're going to lose no matter who pitches.
If they can put three or better on the board every night, they may have a shot.

JK

From: Bob Braun on 9 Oct 2009 07:33

"John Kasupski" <w2pio(a)spamfilter.verizon.net> wrote in message
news:19ltc55g65hfoh9ljlflb6kuelp320v0kl(a)4ax.com...

>
> So I think they'll have Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, question mark, question
> mark,
> with the question marks probably being better than the detritus the Reds
> ran out
> there earlier in the decade, and the bullpen is solid, so the pitching
> overall
> is the best it's been in years. Whether it's enough to contend...well,
> maybe,
> but scoring 2 or less runs a game, they're going to lose no matter who
> pitches.
> If they can put three or better on the board every night, they may have a
> shot.
>

John, I really beleive that Harnag getting the 'extended vacation' is going
to energize him. He has been showing the dead arm from time to time. I
hope he doesn't throw until after Christmas. If he can nail down that two
or three spot, we are in pretty good shape.

Again, I don't have a lot of faith in our current candidates for that fifth
slot.


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