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From: Zuke on 28 Feb 2010 00:26
On Fri, 26 Feb 2010, john smith wrote:

> Chuck, I believe Stormy was bought out of his 3.7 million 2010 contract
> for 400,000. Nice to get a 400,000 check for for not playing. I don't
> know if he has been invited to any ML camps. Hope he stays away from the
> Reds...
>
> Henry as far as the defense and stats are concerned, I don't put much
> trust in them since they rarely take range and just stupid mistakes like
> missing cut off men and pitchers failing to cover first base. Having
> watched the Reds 09, they failed in my eyes in these 3 areas on numerous
> occasions. Rolen should help a bit if he stays healthy and Stubbs is a
> huge upgrade overTaveras. I can live with Cabrera if he hits .275 or
> better. Janish can be a late inning defensive guy...
>
> One last thing I didn't address was what I like to call the CRATERING
> month. You know the month where the Reds usually lose 22 of 30 games and
> fall completely out of contention. This team must get over " the here we
> go again mentality" and limit the losses when things start going
> south...

I thought at the beginning of 2009 that we would be hard pressed to
have a "crater month" with our four strong starters and above average
bullpen. But sure enough, it hit us with injuries to Votto, Encarnacion,
Hernandez and Gonzalez. Then Volquez went down and Harang and
Arroryo went south. It was definitely ugly. I also think that was
the time Traveres was going 34 games without taking a walk.

I want to say we are "crater month"-proof this year. Looking at the
squad I don't see how we can have one of those, we just have too
much talent. But you never know. Let's just hope if it has to happen
it happens in September. Nothing worse than when it happens in
April or May.

From: Zuke on 28 Feb 2010 00:30



On Sat, 27 Feb 2010, John Kasupski wrote:

> On Thu, 25 Feb 2010 21:51:10 -0800, eddygdvd(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote:
>
> As always with these things, my comments assume the players being commented on
> stay healthy, which is never a sure thing. With that in mind...
>
>> They basically look like the same team as last year sans Encarnacion and
>> Taveras. Will Rolen, the new shortstop and Stubbs make huge differences
>> for this team offensively?
>
> I don't think there's any question that a healthy O-Cab upgrades the offensive
> production at shortstop over what the Reds received last year from Janish and
> Gonzalez. Whether he plays defense well enough to make the offensive upgrade
> worthwhile (in terms of runs scored vs. runs allowed) is the question with him.
> I'm not going to venture a guess because I haven't seen enough of him in the
> field recently to feel that I've got a good basis to make that guess. I'm not
> worried about him with the lumber, though...and I suppose they can always use
> Janish as a caddy.
>
> Stubbs...this is where I have some concerns. Was he for real, or just a flash in
> the plan last year? If he flops they're not totally screwed, they do have
> Dickerson who looked to me to be a plenty good enough CF defensively and I
> thought he contributed enough with the lumber to earn his keep...his trouble is
> that he gets hurt too much. They have other optiosn also - Bruce has played CF
> in the bigs, Heisey has played a lot there in the minors. I think it's
> conceivable they could be better off, offensively and defensively, with any of
> those four guys than they were with Taveras.
>
>> Will Phillips and Votto continue to be staples of the offense?
>
> Does a bear defecate in large densely wooded areas?
>
>> Has this team improved defensively enough to stop making the mental
>> mistakes in the field it did in 09?
>
> I think the main offenders in that regard...Votto and some of the other younger
> players...well, they only figure to get better with experience. They were an
> improved team defensively last year, vastly so, but there were moments. Kids are
> going to make mistakes. FWIW, the Reds do have a lot of veteran MLB infielders
> around now (Rolen, Cabrera, Burke, Cairo, Miles) who may have somewhat of a
> steadying influence.
>
>> Will they really get more offense out of the catching position than they
>> did last year? It's almost a lock they do at SS.
>
> Yes. As for catching...I think a lot of the answer to this question comes from
> whether or not Hernandez stays healthy. He was among the Reds' best hitters with
> ducks on the pond but he spent a lot of time playing 1B when Votto was on the
> DL, and he spent some time on the DL himself.
>
>> Can Bruce finally step up and be a true hitter not a Dave Kingman with a
>> glove?
>
> Dude was just 22 years old last year. A lot of the "young" players the Reds
> played last year are older than Bruce - Stubbs was 24, Votto was 25, Janish and
> Rosales were 26, Bailey was 23, Cueto was 23, Volquez was 25. Jay Bruce is still
> developing as a MLB player. Be patient. He's basically torn up every minor
> league he's played in since 2006. I think he will be fine, but we need to
> remember that he's in the majors at a time when most kids are in the middle
> levels of the minors.
>
>> Can Bailey assume the role as ace and limit his temper tantrums on the
>> mound? Can he finally be the ace the Reds haven't had in a long time?
>
> He's another one. He was only 23 last year. Everybody freaked out in 2008 when a
> 22-year old Bailey went 0-6. When Jose Rijo was 22, he went 2-7 with a 5.90 ERA
> for a .500 ballclub - and three years after that he was the World Series MVP.
>
>> Will Cueto's arm fall off in late June like it has the past two seasons?
>
> No, I don't think so. He had pitched a hell of a lot of innings between pitching
> in winter ball, the WBC, and MLB last year. This offseason he skipped winter
> ball. And he, too, was only 23 last year. He only pitched four games at AAA and
> then he was in the majors at age 21.
>
>> Will Mr. Volquez return in July?
>
> I don't think the Reds' season hinges as much on this as a lot of people may
> tend to believe. There's more pitching depth here now than I can remember them
> having in at least a decade. I really don't see an Osvaldo Fernandez, Brandon
> Claussen, or Todd Van Poppel in the bunch, either. This is perhaps the single
> most encouraging thing I see right now concerning the Reds' future. Others will
> disagree, but to me, this game is about pitching....if you don't have it, you're
> not going to contend, period.
>
>> Can Arroyo actually put up 2 solid half's? Will Harang win more than 8
>> games?
>
> Really, you can split the season into thirds, and if you manage to hang around
> .500 during two of them and have a good third one you're going to be in it at
> the end most of the time. That again is the nice thing about having some depth
> in the pitching department, one or two guys don't necessarily have to carry the
> club all year. It's nice if they can - just ask the 2001 Diamondbacks about
> Johnson and Schilling. But more often than not the playoff teams have three
> starters who are league average or better, and with the current Reds pitching
> it's entirely possible that two of them could be somebody other than Harang or
> Arroyo. That means a lot.
>
>> Is Matt Maloney a southpaw surprise that provides a solid #5 starter?
>> Will Micah Owings be better known as a pitcher rather than a hitter this
>> year?
>
> The #5 starter is impossible to call. That's been the case a lot recently. The
> difference iis that in past years it's often been a matter of trying to find
> somebody to at least pitch like they might belong in the major leagues, whereas
> this year you have candidates (Wood, Maloney, Chapman) who could ultimately end
> up being among the best in the game competing for the #5 slot in the rotation.
> That's a far cry from throwing detritus at a wall to fill that slot, as they've
> often done in recent memory.
>
> JK
>

I agree with everything you say here.

From: David Short on 28 Feb 2010 12:16
"Zuke" <me(a)privacy.net> wrote in message
> I thought at the beginning of 2009 that we would be hard pressed to
> have a "crater month" with our four strong starters and above average
> bullpen. But sure enough, it hit us with injuries to Votto, Encarnacion,
> Hernandez and Gonzalez. Then Volquez went down and Harang and Arroryo
> went south. It was definitely ugly. I also think that was
> the time Traveres was going 34 games without taking a walk.
>
> I want to say we are "crater month"-proof this year. Looking at the
> squad I don't see how we can have one of those, we just have too
> much talent. But you never know.

Votto has a relapse of his "misses dad" disease.. Rolen gets hurt. Stubbs
continues the Patterson/Taveras string of cyphers in center. Bruce not only
hits 220 again, but this time the power evaporates. The relief core pitches
at the bottom of the projection. John is right about Harang. Cueto follows
Volquez to the operating table and Arroyo has a bad month.

That means a month where the #5 starter, the catcher, middle infielders and
left field have to "carry" the team.

That would be a crater. Hope we don't see it.

dfs


From: HTP on 28 Feb 2010 14:43
On Feb 26, 12:04 pm, eddyg...(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote:
> Chuck, I believe Stormy was bought out of his 3.7 million 2010 contract
> for 400,000. Nice to get a 400,000 check for for not playing. I don't
> know if he has been invited to any ML camps. Hope he stays away from the
> Reds...
>
> Henry as far as the defense and stats are concerned, I don't put much
> trust in them since they rarely take range and just stupid mistakes like
> missing cut off men and pitchers failing to cover first base.

I was talking about range.

You have no way of knowing if the Reds fail to hit the cutoff man or
cove first anymore than any other team because theres no way that you
can possibly watch that many games of other teams.

Having
> watched the Reds 09, they failed in my eyes in these 3 areas on numerous
> occasions. Rolen should help a bit if he stays healthy and Stubbs is a
> huge upgrade overTaveras.

2008 vs. 2009 by position

first base: votto both years. probably improved slightly

second: Phillips both years - probably declined slightly

shortstop: Keppinger/Hairston vs. Gonzalez/Janish - thats a massive
upgrade defensivley

3rd base - Encarnacion vs. encarnacion/Rolen - upgrade

left field: dunn vs. anyone from 2009 - masssssssive upgrade

centerfield: Patterson/Griffey vs. Taveras/Stubbs - even. slight
upgrade if anything

rightfield: griffey/Bruce vs. Bruce/Gomes - more innings for bruce =
slight upgrade

catcher: Ross/Valentin vs. Hernandez/Hanigan - probably an upgrade
because Valentin was so bad.


You dont really need to look at stats to figure this one out. But the
defensive numbers (range, errors etc) back this up. The Reds were
vastly improved defensively last year. You can fret about pitcher
defense all you want, but its SS and CF defense that matters most.


I can live with Cabrera if he hits .275 or
> better. Janish can be a late inning defensive guy...

No matter how few mental mistakes Cabrera makes, that and his empty .
275 batting average will not be an upgrade over Janish's range and
arm. Waste of money imo.

>
> One last thing I didn't address was what I like to call the CRATERING
> month. You know the month where the Reds usually lose 22 of 30 games and
> fall completely out of contention. This team must get over " the here we
> go again mentality" and limit the losses when things start going
> south...

Lots of teams have these. The Cubs used to have a yearly "June swoon".
The Reds craterseems to usually coincide with interleague play.

>
> Spring brings eternal optimism to all fans. I am optimistic this year
> but I am also a realist and there are too many question marks on this
> 2010 Reds squad to get too excited... I'll just past that jug of Kool
> Aid around and see if ther are any takers...

I might take a big swig this year. Depends on what Chapman and Bailey
look like in Arizona.

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