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From: A on 21 Sep 2008 08:17
x-no-archive: yes

I enjoy fooling around with the new baseball sabermetric numbers, and in
learning more complex things about Excel (Microsoft-made spreadsheet) so the
two fit perfectly, such as in using Tables.

Using Bill James' precise mathematical formulas found in the back of his
annual "Bill James Handbook [2008]" ('Baseball Glossary', pp. 478-80), I
computerized his complex steps using Excel in determining Albert Pujols' and
more recently for comparison one of the fastest players in baseball, Jose
Reyes' SPEED SCOREs. Carl Crawford would be another good current example to
use who has a high number of SBs and Triples with not-too-many HRs, but he
lost a lot of time this year on the D/L. Lou Brock would also be great to
figure, but I think he would get mostly 9.5+ every year (1964-1977) and
lower numbers in his last two years, '78-'79.

Albert Pujols has not yet hit a Triple in '08, so if he doesn't do it in the
next 8 games it would be the first year he didn't hit at least one.

[ http://www.baseballinfosolutions.com ]


I didn't use the 2-yrs. combination he says to make a speed score.

Probably close enough to get each season's figure, just to see how a player
varied each year in determining how fast he is, on a scale of 0 to 10,
excluding all pitchers.

Here are the single season and (career average) SPEED SCOREs for all the
years each has played in the majors; thru Sept. 20 for 2008 which should be
close enough for '08 with only 8 games remaining for both the Cardinals and
Mets.


SPEED SCOREs
(0=slowest, 10=fastest)

Albert Pujols Jose Reyes

2001 4.1 <not yet in majors>
2002 4.1 <not yet in majors>
2003 5.0 8.2
2004 3.5 8.8
2005 4.7 8.8
2006 3.3 8.9
2007 1.9 8.6
2008 3.5 (through Sept. 20) 8.1 (through Sept. 20)

AVERAGE 3.8 8.6


6 parameters used: SB %, Freq. of SB Attempts, Triples %, Runs Scored %,
GIDP %, and Position played (excl. pitchers), thusly--

C 1 [1 always]
DH 1.5 [1.5 always]
1b 2 [2 always]

2b 1.25 * Rnge factor
3b 1.51 * Rnge factor
SS 1.52 * Rnge factor
OF 3 * Rnge factor

Take all 6 parameters (if any are <0 make it '0'; if any are >10 make it
'10'), throw out the lowest (use MINimum function to easily do this on the
computer), and average the other 5 numbers for the final SPEED SCORE.

For Pujols in '08 [7 SB with 2 CS, 0 Triples] the numbers are:

POS 2
SB % 4.5
Freq. SB Attempts 3.0
Triples % 0 [min. ignored in final computation]
Runs Scored % 3.6
GIDP freq. 4.3

2 + 4.5 + 3.0 + 3.6 + 4.3 = 17.4 divided by 5 = 3.5


I wonder how Ruth and Cobb would compare in each year they played * and
their Career Average, just to pick two HOF greats? Can't use the GIDP
because the stat wasn't tracked in those days (neither were SOs for batters
in the AL before 1913; NL before 1910), so that would be the obvious one to
throw out and only use the five remaining to average, listed below.


1. SB % = 20 * [ [ (SB + 3) / (SB + CS + 7)] - 0.4 ]

2. Freq. of SB Attempts = [ SQRT [ (SB + CS) / (Singles + BB + HBP) ] ] /
0.07

3. Triples % = T / (AB - HR - SO)

from this number, use the table below to assign an integer as one of the
6 scores,

T % Number
< 0.001 0
0.001-0.0023 1
0.0023-0.0039 2
0.0039-0.0058 3
0.0058-0.0080 4
0.0080-0.0105 5
0.0105-0.0130 6
0.0130-0.0158 7
0.0158-0.0189 8
0.0189-0.0223 9
> 0.0223 10


4. Runs Scored % = 25 * [ (R - HR) / (H + HBP + BB - HR) ] - 0.1


5. GIDP % = 200 * [ 0.0055 - [ GIDP / (AB - HR - SO) ] ]



* Ruth only in his full OF years, obviously; 1920-1934.
pre-1920, and 1935 have no CS figures and '35 was too small a number of ABs
(72), anyway.
He stole 110 bases between 1920-1934 (most in 1920-1931), so he did have
some speed in his early-mid years but he also got caught frequently.
He also hit a lot of Triples (136 career), so that also gives him a
higher score than most people would think about at a casual feeling on Ruth
as a mere HR hitter.



From: Terry Lomax on 21 Sep 2008 10:02
On Sep 21, 7:17 am, "A" <a...(a)att.net> wrote:

> I enjoy fooling around with the new baseball sabermetric numbers, and in
> learning more complex things about Excel (Microsoft-made spreadsheet) so the
> two fit perfectly, such as in using Tables.
>
> Using Bill James' precise mathematical formulas found in the back of his
> annual "Bill James Handbook [2008]" ('Baseball Glossary', pp. 478-80), I
> computerized his complex steps using Excel in determining Albert Pujols' and
> more recently for comparison one of the fastest players in baseball, Jose
> Reyes' SPEED SCOREs.  Carl Crawford would be another good current example to
> use who has a high number of SBs and Triples with not-too-many HRs, but he
> lost a lot of time this year on the D/L.  Lou Brock would also be great to
> figure, but I think he would get mostly 9.5+ every year (1964-1977) and
> lower numbers in his last two years, '78-'79.
>
> Albert Pujols has not yet hit a Triple in '08, so if he doesn't do it in the
> next 8 games it would be the first year he didn't hit at least one.
>
> [http://www.baseballinfosolutions.com]
>
> I didn't use the 2-yrs. combination he says to make a speed score.
>
> Probably close enough to get each season's figure, just to see how a player
> varied each year in determining how fast he is, on a scale of 0 to 10,
> excluding all pitchers.
>
> Here are the single season and (career average) SPEED SCOREs for all the
> years each has played in the majors; thru Sept. 20 for 2008 which should be
> close enough for '08 with only 8 games remaining for both the Cardinals and
> Mets.
>
> SPEED SCOREs
> (0=slowest, 10=fastest)
>
> Albert Pujols                                Jose Reyes
>
> 2001   4.1                                     <not yet in majors>
> 2002   4.1                                     <not yet in majors>
> 2003   5.0                                          8.2
> 2004   3.5                                          8.8
> 2005   4.7                                          8.8
> 2006   3.3                                          8.9
> 2007   1.9                                          8.6
> 2008   3.5  (through Sept. 20)          8.1  (through Sept. 20)
>
> AVERAGE    3.8                               8.6
>
> 6 parameters used:  SB %, Freq. of SB Attempts, Triples %, Runs Scored %,
>           GIDP %, and Position played (excl. pitchers), thusly--
>
> C     1      [1 always]
> DH  1.5   [1.5 always]
> 1b     2    [2 always]
>
> 2b   1.25 * Rnge factor
> 3b   1.51 * Rnge factor
> SS   1.52 * Rnge factor
> OF    3 * Rnge factor
>
>   Take all 6 parameters (if any are <0 make it '0'; if any are >10 make it
> '10'), throw out the lowest (use MINimum function to easily do this on the
> computer), and average the other 5 numbers for the final SPEED SCORE.
>
> For Pujols in '08 [7 SB with 2 CS, 0 Triples] the numbers are:
>
> POS                            2
> SB %                          4.5
> Freq. SB Attempts    3.0
> Triples %                    0         [min. ignored in final computation]
> Runs Scored %         3.6
> GIDP freq.                 4.3
>
> 2 + 4.5 + 3.0 + 3.6 + 4.3 = 17.4  divided by 5 = 3.5
>
>   I wonder how Ruth and Cobb would compare in each year they played * and
> their Career Average, just to pick two HOF greats?  Can't use the GIDP
> because the stat wasn't tracked in those days (neither were SOs for batters
> in the AL before 1913; NL before 1910), so that would be the obvious one to
> throw out and only use the five remaining to average, listed below.
>
> 1. SB % = 20 * [ [ (SB + 3) / (SB + CS + 7)] - 0.4 ]
>
> 2. Freq. of SB Attempts = [ SQRT [ (SB + CS) / (Singles + BB + HBP) ]  ] /
> 0.07
>
> 3. Triples % = T / (AB - HR - SO)
>
>     from this number, use the table below to assign an integer as one of the
> 6 scores,
>
>       T %                Number
>     < 0.001                0
>    0.001-0.0023       1
>    0.0023-0.0039     2
>    0.0039-0.0058     3
>    0.0058-0.0080     4
>    0.0080-0.0105     5
>    0.0105-0.0130     6
>    0.0130-0.0158     7
>    0.0158-0.0189     8
>    0.0189-0.0223     9
>    > 0.0223             10
>
> 4. Runs Scored % = 25 * [ (R - HR) / (H + HBP + BB - HR) ] - 0.1
>
> 5.  GIDP % =  200 * [ 0.0055 - [ GIDP / (AB - HR - SO) ]  ]
>
> * Ruth only in his full OF years, obviously; 1920-1934.
> pre-1920, and 1935 have no CS figures and '35 was too small a number of ABs
> (72), anyway.
> He stole 110 bases between 1920-1934 (most in 1920-1931), so he did have
> some speed in his early-mid years but he also got caught frequently.
>    He also hit a lot of Triples (136 career), so that also gives him a
> higher score than most people would think about at a casual feeling on Ruth
> as a mere HR hitter.

I quoted the entire post because Petrie made it no-archive. It's a
good thing for Cardinal fans Ruth was caught stealing a lot, as that's
how we clinched our first World Series.

I would guess many of Ruth's triples were enabled by eccentric
dimenstions of old-time ballparks, with balls bouncing into far
corners. In addition, defense wasn't as good back then, with slower
outfielders taking longer to get the ball and aggressive runners
challenging weaker arms.

The low speed score for Pujols in 2007 must be mainly from his
injuries.

Pujols would have a higher speed score if the above stat included
taking an extra base. Pujols is one of the best players in all of
baseball in terms of advancing two bases on a single and going home
from first on a double. Jose Oquendo is often aggressive in sending
players home, and it's not unusual for Pujols to run through a stop
sign. Advancing two bases on a groundout is another indicator of
speed. Kennedy accomplished that feat early this season, a rare feat
today, much more frequent in the Herzog years when we had a lot of
Jose Reyes types: Coleman, McGee, Ozzie, Lonnie, etc.

Is there a stat for total bases plus stolen bases minus caught
stealing, like a slugging number that takes into account extra bases
gained from stealing (possibly also including the taking of extra
bases in the above paragraph).
From: A on 21 Sep 2008 11:12
x-no-archive: yes

"Terry Lomax" <Lomax47(a)hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:29205a8d-747b-408f-a2ee-72efa6a7ac16(a)z72g2000hsb.googlegroups.com...
On Sep 21, 7:17 am, "A" <a...(a)att.net> wrote:

> I enjoy fooling around with the new baseball sabermetric numbers, and in
> learning more complex things about Excel (Microsoft-made spreadsheet) so
> the
> two fit perfectly, such as in using Tables.
>
> Using Bill James' precise mathematical formulas found in the back of his
> annual "Bill James Handbook [2008]" ('Baseball Glossary', pp. 478-80), I
> computerized his complex steps using Excel in determining Albert Pujols'
> and
> more recently for comparison one of the fastest players in baseball, Jose
> Reyes' SPEED SCOREs. Carl Crawford would be another good current example
> to
> use who has a high number of SBs and Triples with not-too-many HRs, but he
> lost a lot of time this year on the D/L. Lou Brock would also be great to
> figure, but I think he would get mostly 9.5+ every year (1964-1977) and
> lower numbers in his last two years, '78-'79.
>
> Albert Pujols has not yet hit a Triple in '08, so if he doesn't do it in
> the
> next 8 games it would be the first year he didn't hit at least one.
>
> [http://www.baseballinfosolutions.com]
>
> I didn't use the 2-yrs. combination he says to make a speed score.
>
> Probably close enough to get each season's figure, just to see how a
> player
> varied each year in determining how fast he is, on a scale of 0 to 10,
> excluding all pitchers.
>
> Here are the single season and (career average) SPEED SCOREs for all the
> years each has played in the majors; thru Sept. 20 for 2008 which should
> be
> close enough for '08 with only 8 games remaining for both the Cardinals
> and
> Mets.
>
> SPEED SCOREs
> (0=slowest, 10=fastest)
>
> Albert Pujols Jose Reyes
>
> 2001 4.1 <not yet in majors>
> 2002 4.1 <not yet in majors>
> 2003 5.0 8.2
> 2004 3.5 8.8
> 2005 4.7 8.8
> 2006 3.3 8.9
> 2007 1.9 8.6
> 2008 3.5 (through Sept. 20) 8.1 (through Sept. 20)
>
> AVERAGE 3.8 8.6
>
> 6 parameters used: SB %, Freq. of SB Attempts, Triples %, Runs Scored %,
> GIDP %, and Position played (excl. pitchers), thusly--
>
> C 1 [1 always]
> DH 1.5 [1.5 always]
> 1b 2 [2 always]
>
> 2b 1.25 * Rnge factor
> 3b 1.51 * Rnge factor
> SS 1.52 * Rnge factor
> OF 3 * Rnge factor
>
> Take all 6 parameters (if any are <0 make it '0'; if any are >10 make it
> '10'), throw out the lowest (use MINimum function to easily do this on the
> computer), and average the other 5 numbers for the final SPEED SCORE.
>
> For Pujols in '08 [7 SB with 2 CS, 0 Triples] the numbers are:
>
> POS 2
> SB % 4.5
> Freq. SB Attempts 3.0
> Triples % 0 [min. ignored in final computation]
> Runs Scored % 3.6
> GIDP freq. 4.3
>
> 2 + 4.5 + 3.0 + 3.6 + 4.3 = 17.4 divided by 5 = 3.5
>
> I wonder how Ruth and Cobb would compare in each year they played * and
> their Career Average, just to pick two HOF greats? Can't use the GIDP
> because the stat wasn't tracked in those days (neither were SOs for
> batters
> in the AL before 1913; NL before 1910), so that would be the obvious one
> to
> throw out and only use the five remaining to average, listed below.
>
> 1. SB % = 20 * [ [ (SB + 3) / (SB + CS + 7)] - 0.4 ]
>
> 2. Freq. of SB Attempts = [ SQRT [ (SB + CS) / (Singles + BB + HBP) ] ] /
> 0.07
>
> 3. Triples % = T / (AB - HR - SO)
>
> from this number, use the table below to assign an integer as one of the
> 6 scores,
>
> T % Number
> < 0.001 0
> 0.001-0.0023 1
> 0.0023-0.0039 2
> 0.0039-0.0058 3
> 0.0058-0.0080 4
> 0.0080-0.0105 5
> 0.0105-0.0130 6
> 0.0130-0.0158 7
> 0.0158-0.0189 8
> 0.0189-0.0223 9
> > 0.0223 10
>
> 4. Runs Scored % = 25 * [ (R - HR) / (H + HBP + BB - HR) ] - 0.1
>
> 5. GIDP % = 200 * [ 0.0055 - [ GIDP / (AB - HR - SO) ] ]
>
> * Ruth only in his full OF years, obviously; 1920-1934.
> pre-1920, and 1935 have no CS figures and '35 was too small a number of
> ABs
> (72), anyway.
> He stole 110 bases between 1920-1934 (most in 1920-1931), so he did have
> some speed in his early-mid years but he also got caught frequently.
> He also hit a lot of Triples (136 career), so that also gives him a
> higher score than most people would think about at a casual feeling on
> Ruth
> as a mere HR hitter.

>I quoted the entire post because Petrie made it no-archive. It's a
good thing for Cardinal fans Ruth was caught stealing a lot, as that's
how we clinched our first World Series.>

I knew that, but this figuring is only for the regular season.

>I would guess many of Ruth's triples were enabled by eccentric
dimenstions of old-time ballparks, with balls bouncing into far
corners. In addition, defense wasn't as good back then, with slower
outfielders taking longer to get the ball and aggressive runners
>challenging weaker arms.

Both points you make are possible, but you have to hit the ball deep
(Ruth good at that) but you also have to run decent, if not above average
and Ruth was at least decent; much thinner and quicker than commonly
remembered from his later years.

>The low speed score for Pujols in 2007 must be mainly from his
injuries.
>

No, the figures don't take into account any injuries; just
on-field performance.


>Pujols would have a higher speed score if the above stat included
taking an extra base.
>

No, the extra bases taken are from 'smarts' not 'speed'.


<Pujols is one of the best players in all of
baseball in terms of advancing two bases on a single and going home
from first on a double. Jose Oquendo is often aggressive in sending
players home, and it's not unusual for Pujols to run through a stop
sign. Advancing two bases on a groundout is another indicator of
speed. Kennedy accomplished that feat early this season, a rare feat
today, much more frequent in the Herzog years when we had a lot of
Jose Reyes types: Coleman, McGee, Ozzie, Lonnie, etc.
>

>Is there a stat for total bases plus stolen bases minus caught
stealing, like a slugging number that takes into account extra bases
gained from stealing (possibly also including the taking of extra
bases in the above paragraph).
>

Bill James does precisely that, but not adding an official new stat to
the new ones.
He calls it 'Bases Taken' on things such as a WP/PB, BK, SF and
Defensive Indifference.
He just adds the SBs, extra-bases taken (1b-to-3b plus 2b-to-Home on
Singles [59%], and 1b-Home on Doubles [44%]) over-the-average, adding: Bases
Taken (minus 2 times CS), minus doubled-off-a-base or runs-into-an-out; all
pro-rated to the average.
Also taken into account: Runs scored as % of times-on-base.
NOT considered: reaching base on a Fielder's Error, GIDP, reaching 1b
after a batting K, going from 2b to 3b on a fly ball, or going from 1b to 2b
on a ground-out, and NO CREDIT going from 1b-to-3b on a ground-out (it
happened, and he saw it in '06).

Best Baserunner in all of MLB in '07: Jose Reyes (+70).
[Worst: Todd Helton with -35]

Jose Reyes (2007)

78 SB (SB Gain = +36 leads all MLB)
6-for-21 (1b-to-3b on a Single)
19-for-25 (2b-to-Home on a Single) [+4]
5-for-5 (1b-to-Home on a Double [+3]
+32 bases on WP, SF, and only ran into an out ONCE all year!

+34 not counting SBs
+36 SB Gain [SBG] (78 SB, 21 CS; therefore, 78-42 = +36)
= +70 leads all of MLB in '07.

Pujols: -9 RATING for '07
12-for-37 (1b-to-3b on a Single)
14-for-21 (2b-to-Home on a Single)
2-for-4 (1b-to-Home on a Double)

280 times on-base, Scored 24% of the time

+18 Bases Taken
-2 Outs Advancing

+1 BR Gain
-10 SB Gain [SBG] (2 SB, 6 CS; therefore, 2-12 = -10)

= -9

Benjie Molina (2006) was -15; -20 in 2007.


From: Terry Lomax on 21 Sep 2008 12:12
On Sep 21, 10:12 am, "A" <a...(a)att.net> wrote:

> and Ruth was at least decent; much thinner and quicker than commonly
> remembered from his later years.

It's difficult to tell just how fast the old-timers ran because the
old film is faster than realtime, making the players seem super-fast.

Despite my belief Ruth's high number of triples doesn't indicate
speed, I'm not doubting Ruth was capable of decent speed. Some chubby
folks can barrel at surprising velocity.


>       Bill James does precisely that, but not adding an official new stat to
> the new ones.
>       He calls it 'Bases Taken' on things such as a WP/PB, BK, SF and
> Defensive Indifference.
>       He just adds the SBs, extra-bases taken (1b-to-3b plus 2b-to-Home on
> Singles [59%], and 1b-Home on Doubles [44%]) over-the-average, adding: Bases
> Taken (minus 2 times CS), minus doubled-off-a-base or runs-into-an-out; all
> pro-rated to the average.
>      Also taken into account: Runs scored as % of times-on-base.
>      NOT considered: reaching base on a Fielder's Error, GIDP, reaching 1b
> after a batting K, going from 2b to 3b on a fly ball, or going from 1b to 2b
> on a ground-out, and NO CREDIT going from 1b-to-3b on a ground-out (it
> happened, and he saw it in '06).
>
>      Best Baserunner in all of MLB in '07:  Jose Reyes (+70).
>     [Worst: Todd Helton with -35]

Sounds like a good stat even if players don't get credit for advancing
two bases on an out. Good to give players credit for advancing on
"defensive indifference". If a catcher doesn't try to throw out a
baserunner, the runner shouldn't be punished with lack of credit for a
stolen base.
From: LidsvilleNine on 21 Sep 2008 22:39
On Sep 21, 11:12 am, Terry Lomax <Loma...(a)hotmail.com> wrote:
> On Sep 21, 10:12 am, "A" <a...(a)att.net> wrote:
>
> > and Ruth was at least decent; much thinner and quicker than commonly
> > remembered from his later years.
>
> It's difficult to tell just how fast the old-timers ran because the
> old film is faster than realtime, making the players seem super-fast.

So film a modern game on an old camera.
>
> Despite my belief Ruth's high number of triples doesn't indicate
> speed, I'm not doubting Ruth was capable of decent speed. Some chubby
> folks can barrel at surprising velocity.
>
Good choice of words :)

>
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