From: tom dunne on
On Mar 11, 9:38 am, RJA <agentvau...(a)gmail.com> wrote:
> On Mar 11, 8:59 am, David Short
>
>
>
> <David.No.Sho...(a)Spam.wright.Please.edu> wrote:
> > On 3/11/2010 12:05 AM, tom dunne wrote:
>
> > > I think a bigger question than should the Reds deal Phillips is would
> > > they be able to find a taker?  He's better than average both
> > > offensively and defensively at his position, but he's hit his ceiling
> > > and is closing in on 30.  While Phillips is a good player, he's not
> > > really the sort of difference-maker teams usually go after in July.
> > > Who can you convince to take a $12 million second baseman who peaked
> > > four years earlier?
>
> > Well, you certainly aren't going to get much in return, but I think
> > Phillips is dealable to somebody with a hole at second. An OPS+ of 100
> > and good defense out of an up the middle slot is worthwhile. Somebody
> > like the Cardinals (not the Cardinals, but like them) who play stars and
> > then have holes at other positions might find Phillips very attractive
> > at the trading deadline.
>
> > > Beyond that, I think the only time Walt has to trade him is now.  If
> > > the Reds are anywhere in shouting distance come July, fireselling
> > > Phillips to save cash would be one of those stadium-clearing PR
> > > nightmares Castellini has to be desperate to avoid.
>
> > Yeah. I don't think they can make a white flag trade this year, but if
> > they are 20 out.....
>
> This is one of those contracts that Krivsky made that leaves you
> scratching your head.  11 and 12 million?  Same with Arroyo and
> Cordero at the time.  The guy made some good moves, but he sure
> overpaid for some things.

I think an optimist could make an argument that the Phillips deal was
a good move at the time. They had a 26-year old coming off a 30-30
season in which he was healthy enough to play 158 games. If Phillips
had continued to improve upon that production, I think an .850 OPS and
Gold Glove defense at second is potentially worth $11 million.
Unfortunately, Phillips's age 26 season is looking less like a
stepping stone and more like a career year.
From: tom dunne on
On Mar 11, 8:59 am, David Short
<David.No.Sho...(a)Spam.wright.Please.edu> wrote:
> On 3/11/2010 12:05 AM, tom dunne wrote:
>
> > I think a bigger question than should the Reds deal Phillips is would
> > they be able to find a taker?  He's better than average both
> > offensively and defensively at his position, but he's hit his ceiling
> > and is closing in on 30.  While Phillips is a good player, he's not
> > really the sort of difference-maker teams usually go after in July.
> > Who can you convince to take a $12 million second baseman who peaked
> > four years earlier?
>
> Well, you certainly aren't going to get much in return, but I think
> Phillips is dealable to somebody with a hole at second. An OPS+ of 100
> and good defense out of an up the middle slot is worthwhile. Somebody
> like the Cardinals (not the Cardinals, but like them) who play stars and
> then have holes at other positions might find Phillips very attractive
> at the trading deadline.

I'm just not sure I see a team wanting to hook themselves for $12
million in order to get a 100 OPS+ hitter. Maybe I'm applying my own
value system here, but Phillips strikes me as either not good enough
for his salary or not cheap enough for his ability to be a player a
contender would go after.

> > Beyond that, I think the only time Walt has to trade him is now.  If
> > the Reds are anywhere in shouting distance come July, fireselling
> > Phillips to save cash would be one of those stadium-clearing PR
> > nightmares Castellini has to be desperate to avoid.
>
> Yeah. I don't think they can make a white flag trade this year, but if
> they are 20 out.....

If that happens, I think they do firesale Phillips, along with Arroyo
and Harang, if they're remotely productive. But I can't imagine the
trainwreck required to be that bad by July. Let's not jinx it :)
From: RJA on
On Mar 11, 1:30 pm, tom dunne <dunn...(a)gmail.com> wrote:
> On Mar 11, 8:59 am, David Short
>
>
>
>
>
> <David.No.Sho...(a)Spam.wright.Please.edu> wrote:
> > On 3/11/2010 12:05 AM, tom dunne wrote:
>
> > > I think a bigger question than should the Reds deal Phillips is would
> > > they be able to find a taker?  He's better than average both
> > > offensively and defensively at his position, but he's hit his ceiling
> > > and is closing in on 30.  While Phillips is a good player, he's not
> > > really the sort of difference-maker teams usually go after in July.
> > > Who can you convince to take a $12 million second baseman who peaked
> > > four years earlier?
>
> > Well, you certainly aren't going to get much in return, but I think
> > Phillips is dealable to somebody with a hole at second. An OPS+ of 100
> > and good defense out of an up the middle slot is worthwhile. Somebody
> > like the Cardinals (not the Cardinals, but like them) who play stars and
> > then have holes at other positions might find Phillips very attractive
> > at the trading deadline.
>
> I'm just not sure I see a team wanting to hook themselves for $12
> million in order to get a 100 OPS+ hitter.  Maybe I'm applying my own
> value system here, but Phillips strikes me as either not good enough
> for his salary or not cheap enough for his ability to be a player a
> contender would go after.

Don't forget who we're talking about here. The Reds. We have paid a
lot for less in recent years. If they think he's a fan draw, they'll
keep him if they don't have a logical replacement. They'll certainly
have the room in 2012 to fit him into a $70 million payroll.
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