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From: tom dunne on 11 Mar 2010 13:23 On Mar 11, 9:38 am, RJA <agentvau...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > On Mar 11, 8:59 am, David Short > > > > <David.No.Sho...(a)Spam.wright.Please.edu> wrote: > > On 3/11/2010 12:05 AM, tom dunne wrote: > > > > I think a bigger question than should the Reds deal Phillips is would > > > they be able to find a taker? He's better than average both > > > offensively and defensively at his position, but he's hit his ceiling > > > and is closing in on 30. While Phillips is a good player, he's not > > > really the sort of difference-maker teams usually go after in July. > > > Who can you convince to take a $12 million second baseman who peaked > > > four years earlier? > > > Well, you certainly aren't going to get much in return, but I think > > Phillips is dealable to somebody with a hole at second. An OPS+ of 100 > > and good defense out of an up the middle slot is worthwhile. Somebody > > like the Cardinals (not the Cardinals, but like them) who play stars and > > then have holes at other positions might find Phillips very attractive > > at the trading deadline. > > > > Beyond that, I think the only time Walt has to trade him is now. If > > > the Reds are anywhere in shouting distance come July, fireselling > > > Phillips to save cash would be one of those stadium-clearing PR > > > nightmares Castellini has to be desperate to avoid. > > > Yeah. I don't think they can make a white flag trade this year, but if > > they are 20 out..... > > This is one of those contracts that Krivsky made that leaves you > scratching your head. 11 and 12 million? Same with Arroyo and > Cordero at the time. The guy made some good moves, but he sure > overpaid for some things. I think an optimist could make an argument that the Phillips deal was a good move at the time. They had a 26-year old coming off a 30-30 season in which he was healthy enough to play 158 games. If Phillips had continued to improve upon that production, I think an .850 OPS and Gold Glove defense at second is potentially worth $11 million. Unfortunately, Phillips's age 26 season is looking less like a stepping stone and more like a career year.
From: tom dunne on 11 Mar 2010 13:30 On Mar 11, 8:59 am, David Short <David.No.Sho...(a)Spam.wright.Please.edu> wrote: > On 3/11/2010 12:05 AM, tom dunne wrote: > > > I think a bigger question than should the Reds deal Phillips is would > > they be able to find a taker? He's better than average both > > offensively and defensively at his position, but he's hit his ceiling > > and is closing in on 30. While Phillips is a good player, he's not > > really the sort of difference-maker teams usually go after in July. > > Who can you convince to take a $12 million second baseman who peaked > > four years earlier? > > Well, you certainly aren't going to get much in return, but I think > Phillips is dealable to somebody with a hole at second. An OPS+ of 100 > and good defense out of an up the middle slot is worthwhile. Somebody > like the Cardinals (not the Cardinals, but like them) who play stars and > then have holes at other positions might find Phillips very attractive > at the trading deadline. I'm just not sure I see a team wanting to hook themselves for $12 million in order to get a 100 OPS+ hitter. Maybe I'm applying my own value system here, but Phillips strikes me as either not good enough for his salary or not cheap enough for his ability to be a player a contender would go after. > > Beyond that, I think the only time Walt has to trade him is now. If > > the Reds are anywhere in shouting distance come July, fireselling > > Phillips to save cash would be one of those stadium-clearing PR > > nightmares Castellini has to be desperate to avoid. > > Yeah. I don't think they can make a white flag trade this year, but if > they are 20 out..... If that happens, I think they do firesale Phillips, along with Arroyo and Harang, if they're remotely productive. But I can't imagine the trainwreck required to be that bad by July. Let's not jinx it :)
From: RJA on 11 Mar 2010 13:57
On Mar 11, 1:30 pm, tom dunne <dunn...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > On Mar 11, 8:59 am, David Short > > > > > > <David.No.Sho...(a)Spam.wright.Please.edu> wrote: > > On 3/11/2010 12:05 AM, tom dunne wrote: > > > > I think a bigger question than should the Reds deal Phillips is would > > > they be able to find a taker? He's better than average both > > > offensively and defensively at his position, but he's hit his ceiling > > > and is closing in on 30. While Phillips is a good player, he's not > > > really the sort of difference-maker teams usually go after in July. > > > Who can you convince to take a $12 million second baseman who peaked > > > four years earlier? > > > Well, you certainly aren't going to get much in return, but I think > > Phillips is dealable to somebody with a hole at second. An OPS+ of 100 > > and good defense out of an up the middle slot is worthwhile. Somebody > > like the Cardinals (not the Cardinals, but like them) who play stars and > > then have holes at other positions might find Phillips very attractive > > at the trading deadline. > > I'm just not sure I see a team wanting to hook themselves for $12 > million in order to get a 100 OPS+ hitter. Maybe I'm applying my own > value system here, but Phillips strikes me as either not good enough > for his salary or not cheap enough for his ability to be a player a > contender would go after. Don't forget who we're talking about here. The Reds. We have paid a lot for less in recent years. If they think he's a fan draw, they'll keep him if they don't have a logical replacement. They'll certainly have the room in 2012 to fit him into a $70 million payroll. |