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From: Ron Johnson on 12 Mar 2010 15:14
On Mar 11, 5:39 pm, RJA <agentvau...(a)gmail.com> wrote:
> On Mar 11, 4:00 pm, David Short
>
>
>
> <David.No.Sho...(a)Spam.wright.Please.edu> wrote:
> > On 3/11/2010 2:03 PM, RJA wrote:
>
> > > On Mar 11, 12:26 pm, Dan Szymborski<dszymbor...(a)gmail.com>  wrote:
> > >> On Mar 11, 7:45 am, t...(a)nomail.please (JustTom) wrote:
>
> > >>> On Wed, 10 Mar 2010 22:39:22 -0800 (PST), Dan Szymborski
>
> > >>> <dszymbor...(a)gmail.com>  wrote:
>
> > >>>> For purely selfish reasons,
>
> > >>> ???
>
> > >>> I didn't think the O's were in on him?
>
> > >> No, but now I'll be expected to publish a projection for him!
>
> > >> I was hoping that he'd stay in the minors and I wouldn't have to worry
> > >> about it until next year a la Dayan Viciedo.
>
> > >> Dan
>
> > > Where are the 2009 Reds predictions?  We can then determine if you
> > > should really be worried about this.
>
> > I think Dan publishes his stuff at the baseball think factory.
>
> >http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips...
> > looks like the reds.
>
> > Dan publishes his predictions and takes the heat for them.
>
> > dfs- Hide quoted text -
>
> > - Show quoted text -
>
> Here's 2009:
>
> http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2009_zips...
>
> Unless I'm totally underestimating the standard deviation (if it
> exists in this case), the majority of the predictions aren't even
> close.  

Remember that if Dan misses the league context then his
numbers will be severely off.

Baseline is weighted 3 year averages with some regression
to the mean (IE Tom Tango's Marcel)

Just guessing that a player will repeat his previous season
has a standard error of ~14 runs in full-time play.

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