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From: RJA on 11 Mar 2010 16:39 On Mar 11, 4:00 pm, David Short <David.No.Sho...(a)Spam.wright.Please.edu> wrote: > On 3/11/2010 2:03 PM, RJA wrote: > > > > > > > On Mar 11, 12:26 pm, Dan Szymborski<dszymbor...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > >> On Mar 11, 7:45 am, t...(a)nomail.please (JustTom) wrote: > > >>> On Wed, 10 Mar 2010 22:39:22 -0800 (PST), Dan Szymborski > > >>> <dszymbor...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > >>>> For purely selfish reasons, > > >>> ??? > > >>> I didn't think the O's were in on him? > > >> No, but now I'll be expected to publish a projection for him! > > >> I was hoping that he'd stay in the minors and I wouldn't have to worry > >> about it until next year a la Dayan Viciedo. > > >> Dan > > > Where are the 2009 Reds predictions? We can then determine if you > > should really be worried about this. > > I think Dan publishes his stuff at the baseball think factory. > > http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips... > looks like the reds. > > Dan publishes his predictions and takes the heat for them. > > dfs- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - Here's 2009: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2009_zips_projections_cincinnati_reds/ Unless I'm totally underestimating the standard deviation (if it exists in this case), the majority of the predictions aren't even close. I guess expecting them to be close is asking a lot though with so much in play. We should have a thread on predictions for the regulars and the rotation and see how it comes out in the end.
From: tom dunne on 11 Mar 2010 17:17 On Mar 11, 4:00 pm, David Short <David.No.Sho...(a)Spam.wright.Please.edu> wrote: > On 3/11/2010 2:03 PM, RJA wrote: > > > > > On Mar 11, 12:26 pm, Dan Szymborski<dszymbor...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > >> On Mar 11, 7:45 am, t...(a)nomail.please (JustTom) wrote: > > >>> On Wed, 10 Mar 2010 22:39:22 -0800 (PST), Dan Szymborski > > >>> <dszymbor...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > >>>> For purely selfish reasons, > > >>> ??? > > >>> I didn't think the O's were in on him? > > >> No, but now I'll be expected to publish a projection for him! > > >> I was hoping that he'd stay in the minors and I wouldn't have to worry > >> about it until next year a la Dayan Viciedo. > > >> Dan > > > Where are the 2009 Reds predictions? We can then determine if you > > should really be worried about this. > > I think Dan publishes his stuff at the baseball think factory. > > http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips... > looks like the reds. > > Dan publishes his predictions and takes the heat for them. To be fair, Dan publishes the results of his prediction system and takes the heat for them. I don't think ZiPS can evaluate weird things like Votto missing several weeks of games because of anxiety over his father's death as being an isolated incident; it sees that he played 131 games last year at a certain level of production and figures he's going to miss 20 games this year, with slightly lesser production. I think if we asked Dan (hello, Dan!), he'd expect Votto to exceed the ZiPS numbers a bit this year. In general, I try not to think of ZiPS necessarily as Dan's opinions, just the results of his software. Others are less charitable :)
From: Dan Szymborski on 11 Mar 2010 17:22 On Mar 11, 4:39 pm, RJA <agentvau...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > On Mar 11, 4:00 pm, David Short > > Unless I'm totally underestimating the standard deviation (if it > exists in this case), the majority of the predictions aren't even > close. I guess expecting them to be close is asking a lot though with > so much in play. As projection systems go, ZiPS actually had an excellent year! For both humans and computers, the error bars are extremely large. Dan
From: Dan Szymborski on 11 Mar 2010 17:24 On Mar 11, 5:17 pm, tom dunne <dunn...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > On Mar 11, 4:00 pm, David Short > > > > > To be fair, Dan publishes the results of his prediction system and > takes the heat for them. I don't think ZiPS can evaluate weird things > like Votto missing several weeks of games because of anxiety over his > father's death as being an isolated incident; it sees that he played > 131 games last year at a certain level of production and figures he's > going to miss 20 games this year, with slightly lesser production. I > think if we asked Dan (hello, Dan!), he'd expect Votto to exceed the > ZiPS numbers a bit this year. In general, I try not to think of ZiPS > necessarily as Dan's opinions, just the results of his software. > Others are less charitable :) Yeah, computer has no idea why someone missed games, only that he did. Typically, major stretches of missed time are injury-related, which helps. Baseball players don't miss a year to run the family hardware store or go off to fight Germans anymore! (Sorry to turn this into a projection thread!) Dan
From: Dan Szymborski on 11 Mar 2010 17:28
On Mar 11, 3:46 pm, HTP <tmbowma...(a)yahoo.com> wrote: > On Mar 11, 11:52 am, t...(a)nomail.please (JustTom) wrote: > > > On Thu, 11 Mar 2010 09:26:58 -0800 (PST), Dan Szymborski > > Seriously, you might need to change the lens on your projector if you > > couldn't see 30 Million reasons why AC is likely going to make an > > appearace sooner or later this year, hell or high water. > > > Curious, how does one "project" anything on a Cuban > > guy in his first year? > > I'd also like to know the answer to that question. Are there enough > precendents for this guy, or do you use drafted guys who made it to > the majors sometimes in thier first season? Really, the only thing one can do is try to harvest enough data from Cuba, do a really lousy minor league translation, and then treat him as a minor leaguer with a ridiculous error bar. Had to do that with Alexei Ramirez a few years ago and I missed low (and since that's a super small sample size, that knowledge isn't of a whole lot of utility!) Dan |