Best Outfield arms ever?
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From: Ron Johnson on 4 May 2010 09:24 On May 3, 5:28 pm, "Will Vaughan" <ws...(a)hotmail.com> wrote: > "john smith" <eddyg...(a)msn.com> wrote in message > > news:6578-4BDEFFB2-598(a)baytvnwsxa001.msntv.msn.com... > > > We all know an outfielder's arm is not best gauged by the number > > assists. Check that, maybe you can use that gauge in his first two > > years. After that reputation should take over and assists should fall > > based on respect for the arm and now fear by the runner. > > > Some of my guys with great arms: > > > Roberto Clemente > > Carl Furrillo > > Ellis Valentine > > Dave Winfield > > Dwight Evans > > Jesse Barfield > > Dave Parker > > Larry Walker In his day Bob Meusel was regarded as the best throwing OF. He's generally listed as a LF, but he and Ruth switched between left and right depending on park dimension (Meusel always played the bigger field unless the other field was the sun field) In my youth Ollie Brown was known for his gun. (The data does not show him as outstanding) Furillo grades out similarly (ie just above average0-- though we don't have PBP data for the first half of his career. > > Despite the throw that failed to get a lumbering Sid Bream, Barry Bonds > should be on the list as well. Not really. He was very effective in controlling the running game for a left fielder (until the tail end of his career) but he played left because both Bonilla and Van Slyke threw better than he did. Arm strength is not everything when it comes to controlling the running game. For a long time the most effective RF wasn't any of the well known guns, but Orlando Merced. He just got to the ball in better shape to throw than (say) Jay Buhner -- who had a stronger arm but was slower. A guy at the Hardball Times went through the retrosheet data to find out who the most effective OF arms in the retrosheet era were (looking at both the frequency that baserunners took the extra base and how many outs they got. Jesse Barfield and Ellis Valentine show up with as the most effective against the running game in RF on a per game basis. Both worth just over 8 runs a year on average. You hear a lot about Clemente's arm. It was worth about 67 runs to the Pirates from 1957 on. Around 5.4 runs per 162 games. The best CF against the running game seems to have been Andy Van Slyke, and Rocky Colavito tops the LF list (did OK on the RF list too. Pete Rose also finished higher on the LF list than the RF list. (There are a few LF with very strong arms. Willie Stargell comes to mind Bernie Williams and Johnny Damon finished as the third and fourth worst throwing CF since 1957 (behind Juan Pierre and Al Bumbry) Don Baylor and Frank Howard top the LF list. (As in least effective against the running game) Howard actually had a good arm, but was so slow it really didn't matter. Jim Eisenreich was the worst in RF.
From: RJA on 4 May 2010 09:38 On May 3, 12:54 pm, eddyg...(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote: > We all know an outfielder's arm is not best gauged by the number > assists. Check that, maybe you can use that gauge in his first two > years. After that reputation should take over and assists should fall > based on respect for the arm and now fear by the runner. > > Some of my guys with great arms: > > Roberto Clemente > Carl Furrillo > Ellis Valentine > Dave Winfield > Dwight Evans > Jesse Barfield > Dave Parker > Larry Walker Corey Snyder! Don't forget Jose Guillen.
From: Ron Johnson on 4 May 2010 09:57 On May 4, 9:38 am, RJA <agentvau...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > On May 3, 12:54 pm, eddyg...(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote: > > > We all know an outfielder's arm is not best gauged by the number > > assists. Check that, maybe you can use that gauge in his first two > > years. After that reputation should take over and assists should fall > > based on respect for the arm and now fear by the runner. > > > Some of my guys with great arms: > > > Roberto Clemente > > Carl Furrillo > > Ellis Valentine > > Dave Winfield > > Dwight Evans > > Jesse Barfield > > Dave Parker > > Larry Walker > > Corey Snyder! Don't forget Jose Guillen. Neither grades out as particularly effective according to the PBP data. Alexis Rios does (though he's slipped a lot in the past couple of years). Snider's best years do grade out as being an average (5-6 runs) Clemente year, but most years nothing worth noting. Neither Bruce nor Kearns have been significantly above average, but in the long run very few arms have significant impact.
From: RJA on 4 May 2010 11:46 On May 4, 9:57 am, Ron Johnson <ron7...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > On May 4, 9:38 am, RJA <agentvau...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > On May 3, 12:54 pm, eddyg...(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote: > > > > We all know an outfielder's arm is not best gauged by the number > > > assists. Check that, maybe you can use that gauge in his first two > > > years. After that reputation should take over and assists should fall > > > based on respect for the arm and now fear by the runner. > > > > Some of my guys with great arms: > > > > Roberto Clemente > > > Carl Furrillo > > > Ellis Valentine > > > Dave Winfield > > > Dwight Evans > > > Jesse Barfield > > > Dave Parker > > > Larry Walker > > > Corey Snyder! Don't forget Jose Guillen. > > Neither grades out as particularly effective according to the > PBP data. Alexis Rios does (though he's slipped a lot in > the past couple of years). Snider's best years do grade > out as being an average (5-6 runs) Clemente year, but most > years nothing worth noting. > > Neither Bruce nor Kearns have been significantly > above average, but in the long run very few > arms have significant impact.- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - This data is based on what? Opportunties to throw out runners are highly varied, not only in number but in the actual chance to throw the guy out from where he is when you field the ball to the runner's speed.
From: Ron Johnson on 4 May 2010 13:36
On May 4, 11:46 am, RJA <agentvau...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > On May 4, 9:57 am, Ron Johnson <ron7...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > On May 4, 9:38 am, RJA <agentvau...(a)gmail.com> wrote: > > > > On May 3, 12:54 pm, eddyg...(a)msn.com (john smith) wrote: > > > > > We all know an outfielder's arm is not best gauged by the number > > > > assists. Check that, maybe you can use that gauge in his first two > > > > years. After that reputation should take over and assists should fall > > > > based on respect for the arm and now fear by the runner. > > > > > Some of my guys with great arms: > > > > > Roberto Clemente > > > > Carl Furrillo > > > > Ellis Valentine > > > > Dave Winfield > > > > Dwight Evans > > > > Jesse Barfield > > > > Dave Parker > > > > Larry Walker > > > > Corey Snyder! Don't forget Jose Guillen. > > > Neither grades out as particularly effective according to the > > PBP data. Alexis Rios does (though he's slipped a lot in > > the past couple of years). Snider's best years do grade > > out as being an average (5-6 runs) Clemente year, but most > > years nothing worth noting. > > > Neither Bruce nor Kearns have been significantly > > above average, but in the long run very few > > arms have significant impact. > > This data is based on what? Opportunties to throw out runners are > highly varied, not only in number but in the actual chance to throw > the guy out from where he is when you field the ball to the runner's > speed. Attempts to normalize opportunities are why Sean Smith's results are subtly different from John Walsh's. That said, these days the info you're asking for is in the PBP data. We've got fairly detailed PBP data going back to 1987. Before that you've got educated guesses about opportunity (because you don't have hit velocity, trajectory and location info. Velocity and trajectory info are fairly new) Regardless of method though what everybody who's looked at this has come up with is basically, unless the arm is exceptionally good or exceptionally bad the impact is in the noise. |