Adam Dunn
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From: coachrose13 on 13 Jun 2007 23:59 On Jun 13, 7:32 pm, "RJA" <r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: > "Dan Szymborski" <d...(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message > > news:MPG.20d9d3dd54ac809e9896ed(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > > > > > > > In article <466f26b6$0$30663$4c368...(a)roadrunner.com>, > > r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... > >> "Dan Szymborski" <d...(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message > >>news:MPG.20d7cebdd116b2689896e8(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > >> > In article <466df460$0$30655$4c368...(a)roadrunner.com>, > >> > r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... > >> >> "Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote in message > >> >>news:t2sr63h53bh3v3o7ucc7cb203qaq5gbrc3(a)4ax.com... > >> >> > On Mon, 11 Jun 2007 18:12:54 -0400, "RJA" <r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> > >> >> > wrote: > > >> >> I agree, and I pointed that out, but I don't think they're this bad. > >> >> I > >> >> would, however, be interested in those numbers throwing out hitters > >> >> under > >> >> 25 > >> >> years old who have the tendency to skew those averages due to their > >> >> newness > >> >> in the league. Dunn is supposed to be peaking at this age. > > >> > There's no age-related split - younger players don't have a bigger > >> > dropoff on pitcher's counts than older players (this came up a couple > >> > of > >> > years ago someplace I don't remember). > > >> I find that hard to believe. How can we find the under 25 numbers for > >> 2007? > > > Someone asked this somewhere a few years ago, so I did them by age group > > for 1999-2002 (for each age, I didn't specifically do >25 and <25 > > groups). If you'd like, I can try to dig the data up again - I may have > > to re-do the study since it was a couple of computers ago. > > Eh, don't worry about it. With the exception of coachrose, we're all close > enough to the same page.- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - Hell, were not even in the same book, which is good enough for me.
From: Dan Szymborski on 14 Jun 2007 15:26 In article <46708661$0$8975$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... > "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message > news:MPG.20d9d3dd54ac809e9896ed(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > > In article <466f26b6$0$30663$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, > > rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... > >> "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message > >> news:MPG.20d7cebdd116b2689896e8(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > >> > In article <466df460$0$30655$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, > >> > rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... > >> >> "Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveSPAM(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote in message > >> >> news:t2sr63h53bh3v3o7ucc7cb203qaq5gbrc3(a)4ax.com... > >> >> > On Mon, 11 Jun 2007 18:12:54 -0400, "RJA" <rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> > >> >> > wrote: > >> >> > >> >> I agree, and I pointed that out, but I don't think they're this bad. > >> >> I > >> >> would, however, be interested in those numbers throwing out hitters > >> >> under > >> >> 25 > >> >> years old who have the tendency to skew those averages due to their > >> >> newness > >> >> in the league. Dunn is supposed to be peaking at this age. > >> > > >> > There's no age-related split - younger players don't have a bigger > >> > dropoff on pitcher's counts than older players (this came up a couple > >> > of > >> > years ago someplace I don't remember). > >> > >> I find that hard to believe. How can we find the under 25 numbers for > >> 2007? > > > > Someone asked this somewhere a few years ago, so I did them by age group > > for 1999-2002 (for each age, I didn't specifically do >25 and <25 > > groups). If you'd like, I can try to dig the data up again - I may have > > to re-do the study since it was a couple of computers ago. > > Eh, don't worry about it. With the exception of coachrose, we're all close > enough to the same page. Whew, I wasn't looking forward to running it again, so I'm happy to be left off the hook! -- Dan Szymborski dan(a)baseballprimer.REMOVE.com "A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good." - Robert Schumann
From: RJA on 14 Jun 2007 20:25 "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message news:MPG.20db60816f0e38649896f0(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > In article <46708661$0$8975$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, > rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... >> "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message >> news:MPG.20d9d3dd54ac809e9896ed(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... >> > In article <466f26b6$0$30663$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, >> > rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... >> >> "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message >> >> news:MPG.20d7cebdd116b2689896e8(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... >> >> > In article <466df460$0$30655$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, >> >> > rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... >> >> >> "Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveSPAM(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote in message >> >> >> news:t2sr63h53bh3v3o7ucc7cb203qaq5gbrc3(a)4ax.com... >> >> >> > On Mon, 11 Jun 2007 18:12:54 -0400, "RJA" >> >> >> > <rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> >> >> >> > wrote: >> >> >> >> >> >> I agree, and I pointed that out, but I don't think they're this >> >> >> bad. >> >> >> I >> >> >> would, however, be interested in those numbers throwing out hitters >> >> >> under >> >> >> 25 >> >> >> years old who have the tendency to skew those averages due to their >> >> >> newness >> >> >> in the league. Dunn is supposed to be peaking at this age. >> >> > >> >> > There's no age-related split - younger players don't have a bigger >> >> > dropoff on pitcher's counts than older players (this came up a >> >> > couple >> >> > of >> >> > years ago someplace I don't remember). >> >> >> >> I find that hard to believe. How can we find the under 25 numbers for >> >> 2007? >> > >> > Someone asked this somewhere a few years ago, so I did them by age >> > group >> > for 1999-2002 (for each age, I didn't specifically do >25 and <25 >> > groups). If you'd like, I can try to dig the data up again - I may >> > have >> > to re-do the study since it was a couple of computers ago. >> >> Eh, don't worry about it. With the exception of coachrose, we're all >> close >> enough to the same page. > > Whew, I wasn't looking forward to running it again, so I'm happy to be > left off the hook! Yeah I figured it's probably a huge pain and that you're a busy guy. > > -- > Dan Szymborski > dan(a)baseballprimer.REMOVE.com > > "A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is > not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good." > - Robert Schumann
From: RJA on 14 Jun 2007 20:27 <coachrose13(a)hotmail.com> wrote in message news:1181791607.573510.233880(a)z28g2000prd.googlegroups.com... > On Jun 12, 7:18 pm, "RJA" <r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: >> <coachros...(a)hotmail.com> wrote in message >> >> news:1181636033.125702.154910(a)z28g2000prd.googlegroups.com... >> >> >> >> >> >> > On Jun 10, 10:55 am, "RJA" <r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: >> >> <coachros...(a)hotmail.com> wrote in message >> >> >>news:1181460991.179893.162190(a)q75g2000hsh.googlegroups.com... >> >> >> > On Jun 8, 9:23 am, David Short >> >> > <David.no.Sh...(a)Spam.Wright.Please.edu> >> >> > wrote: >> >> >> Kevin McClave wrote: >> >> >> > On Thu, 07 Jun 2007 22:54:04 -0700, coachros...(a)hotmail.com >> >> >> > wrote: >> >> >> >> OK, I'll be stupid and bite on this one. What part (or parts) >> >> >> >> about >> >> >> >> "traditional wisdom that is wrong? Not making contact with the >> >> >> >> ball? >> >> >> >> Bunting? Hitting and running? Stealing? Throwing to the right >> >> >> >> base? >> >> >> >> Lefty against Right? Fundamentals? Hell, if you could always >> >> >> >> count >> >> >> >> on >> >> >> >> a three run homer, the game would be easy to play, and you >> >> >> >> wouldnt >> >> >> >> have to teach it at all. >> >> >> >> > If you'd put your own biases aside and "listen" you would >> >> >> > certainly >> >> >> > learn >> >> >> > something from the "statheads" here. What you think you know, in >> >> >> > a >> >> >> > number >> >> >> > of cases, has been shown to not be true. >> >> >> >> And what is FAR more frustrating, several of the straw men you have >> >> >> set >> >> >> up to show the limits of numeric inquiry are things that most of >> >> >> these >> >> >> folks are painfully aware of. It's almost as if you are trying to >> >> >> pick >> >> >> a >> >> >> fight or something, but not quite sure how to go about it. >> >> >> > Not trying to pick a fight, never have. In the very beginning, I >> >> > tried >> >> > to state an OPINION of mine that I thought Adam Dunn's offensive >> >> > talents could best be utilized by batting him in the 6 hole. From >> >> > that >> >> > spot, his positives (long ball threat, RBI man, drawing a lot of >> >> > BB's) >> >> > could help his team, while his negatives(not making contact very >> >> > often, going for long stretches of being inconsistant offensively) , >> >> > would not hurt his team as much as if he were batting higher in the >> >> > lineup. At this point, I was introduced to Bill James and his >> >> > theries, >> >> > and how not hittng the ball is not such a bad deal, and how I am so >> >> > terribly wrong in my thinking. Of course, I cant be proven wrong, as >> >> > Dunn seldom bats in the six hole, anyway! >> >> >> Why would you want to bat someone who gets on base a good amount 6th >> >> ahead >> >> of Gonzalez, Ross and the pitcher? >> >> > Well, let me see. Gonzalez, who regardless of what others say here, >> > has been productive this year for Cincinnati, would bat in the 7 hole, >> > Ross, or whoever you want to catch, would bat 8th, and the pitcher >> > would bat 9th. So, yes, Id still say, take Dunn's 215 strikeouts, and >> > bat him the the 6 hole. >> >> Then you're still sadly mistaken. It's pretty clear that I'm not a huge >> Dunn fan, he sucks with 2 strikes, sucks in the field and is a dumb >> baserunner. But he DOES get on base and you have to find a way to take >> advantage of that with your run producers knocking him in, not wasting >> him >> on Gonzalez, Ross and the pitcher all of which who would strike out more >> than 100 times in a season. In fact, Ross would strike out about 200 >> times >> in a full year at this pace and so would a pitcher. So really, you're >> arguing against your own argument.- Hide quoted text - >> >> - Show quoted text - > > Gonzalez is a good enough hitter to bat behind Dunn. Ross simply needs > to be in Louisville, or at least on the bench. But you're not talking about "Good enough hitters," you're talking about strikeouts, and all three of those guys do plenty of it. So that is a lousy place to put a guy who draws walks.
From: Kevin McClave on 17 Jun 2007 16:20
On Sat, 16 Jun 2007 23:39:52 -0700, coachrose13(a)hotmail.com wrote: > Cant find no one here worth arguing with who thinks striking out 200 times a year is insignicant. Hell, the Reds worked with Dunn all preseason to try to get him to cut down on his strikouts, even Adam says he needs to reduce his strikouts. I guess statheads know more than the oranization or players do, huh? Absolutely. That's one reason they haven't been to the playoffs in more than a decade. ****************************************************************** Kevin McClave "To justify himself, each relies on the other's crime." ~Albert Camus ****************************************************************** |