Adam Dunn
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From: RJA on 12 Jun 2007 21:33 "John Kasupski" <kc2hmz(a)wzrd.com> wrote in message news:pkeu63t47rmu2u1ddt2ovc35keeime4gkt(a)4ax.com... > On Tue, 12 Jun 2007 16:10:04 -0700, Ron Johnson > <johnson(a)ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca> wrote: > >>You're not being insulting. Always a danger of talking >>past each other. Huh, Hafner gets two groundout >>RBI in the same game. Stopped looking when >>I found his groundout RBI in the 7th. > > Ah, yes, we were in the same game, but different innings. > >>Kind of surprising that the infield wasn't in. Any >>comments about that during the game? Easy to understand why >>it wasn't in the 7th -- with Hafner and Martinez >>coming up and a two run lead a run for an out >>isn't a terrible bargain. In the 1th though if you >>don't get the DP. ... > > I'm a ham radio operator...generally leave the sound on the TV turned > down so I can hear my radios, and thus don't know if the announcers > were wondering about this or not. With a two-run lead in the 7th, I > think I'd trade the run for two outs. Tied in the 11th, I would not, > but apparently Narron doesn't think the way I do (no big surprise), > and they didn't get the DP, and it cost 'em the game. Speaking of very questionable decisions, how about the Indians not pinch running for Sabathia in the 9th the other day, leaving him on 2nd with nobody out. The single which followed could only advance him to third and the Indians ended up not scoring. If they have anything that resembles a closer, that was one of the worst decisions that I've seen by a manager this year. Something I'd expect from Narron.
From: John Kasupski on 12 Jun 2007 22:08 On Tue, 12 Jun 2007 21:33:34 -0400, "RJA" <rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: >Speaking of very questionable decisions, how about the Indians not pinch >running for Sabathia in the 9th the other day, leaving him on 2nd with >nobody out. The single which followed could only advance him to third and >the Indians ended up not scoring. If they have anything that resembles a >closer, that was one of the worst decisions that I've seen by a manager this >year. Something I'd expect from Narron. Well, they have Joe Borowski, who has 18 saves already this year (in 20 save opportunities) and 22 K in 24 IP, but also has a 6.75 ERA. Still, if you're leaving your 6'7", 290-pound ace starter in to run the bases in scoring position in the ninth inning of a scoreless game, you're asleep on the top step of the dugout in my book. You have to get the lead first before you can go looking for somebody to hold it. John D, Kasupski, Tonawanda, NY Reds Fan Since The 1960's http://www.kc2hmz.net
From: John Kasupski on 12 Jun 2007 22:14 On Tue, 12 Jun 2007 21:33:34 -0400, "RJA" <rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: >Speaking of very questionable decisions, how about Narron just now as I was typing my reply to the comments about Sabathia. Has Valentin pinch-hit for Ross in the eighth, then sends Moeller out to catch in the ninth. Freel is on the DL. I sure hope Moeller doesn't get hurt. John D, Kasupski, Tonawanda, NY Reds Fan Since The 1960's http://www.kc2hmz.net
From: Dan Szymborski on 13 Jun 2007 11:14 In article <466f26b6$0$30663$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... > "Dan Szymborski" <dan(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message > news:MPG.20d7cebdd116b2689896e8(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > > In article <466df460$0$30655$4c368faf(a)roadrunner.com>, > > rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... > >> "Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveSPAM(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote in message > >> news:t2sr63h53bh3v3o7ucc7cb203qaq5gbrc3(a)4ax.com... > >> > On Mon, 11 Jun 2007 18:12:54 -0400, "RJA" <rja(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> > >> > wrote: > >> > >> I agree, and I pointed that out, but I don't think they're this bad. I > >> would, however, be interested in those numbers throwing out hitters under > >> 25 > >> years old who have the tendency to skew those averages due to their > >> newness > >> in the league. Dunn is supposed to be peaking at this age. > > > > There's no age-related split - younger players don't have a bigger > > dropoff on pitcher's counts than older players (this came up a couple of > > years ago someplace I don't remember). > > I find that hard to believe. How can we find the under 25 numbers for 2007? Someone asked this somewhere a few years ago, so I did them by age group for 1999-2002 (for each age, I didn't specifically do >25 and <25 groups). If you'd like, I can try to dig the data up again - I may have to re-do the study since it was a couple of computers ago. -- Dan Szymborski dan(a)baseballprimer.REMOVE.com "A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good." - Robert Schumann
From: Ron Johnson on 13 Jun 2007 12:14
On Jun 13, 11:14 am, Dan Szymborski <d...(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote: > In article <466f26b6$0$30663$4c368...(a)roadrunner.com>, > r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... > > > > > "Dan Szymborski" <d...(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote in message > >news:MPG.20d7cebdd116b2689896e8(a)news-server.woh.rr.com... > > > In article <466df460$0$30655$4c368...(a)roadrunner.com>, > > > r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com says... > > >> "Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote in message > > >>news:t2sr63h53bh3v3o7ucc7cb203qaq5gbrc3(a)4ax.com... > > >> > On Mon, 11 Jun 2007 18:12:54 -0400, "RJA" <r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> > > >> > wrote: > > > >> I agree, and I pointed that out, but I don't think they're this bad. I > > >> would, however, be interested in those numbers throwing out hitters under > > >> 25 > > >> years old who have the tendency to skew those averages due to their > > >> newness > > >> in the league. Dunn is supposed to be peaking at this age. > > > > There's no age-related split - younger players don't have a bigger > > > dropoff on pitcher's counts than older players (this came up a couple of > > > years ago someplace I don't remember). > > > I find that hard to believe. How can we find the under 25 numbers for 2007? > > Someone asked this somewhere a few years ago, so I did them by age group > for 1999-2002 (for each age, I didn't specifically do >25 and <25 > groups). If you'd like, I can try to dig the data up again - I may have > to re-do the study since it was a couple of computers ago. I was going to reply to Rich, but may as well stick it here. Don't know what your data source is, but it's easy to write a script to pick this stuff up from bbref. (I'd use a shell script with wget and awk, but I'm a UNIX guy. Lots of ways to skin this cat once you know the structure at bbref. And that's not tough to figure out) I'm pretty sure that the right way to do the study is not to compare under 25s to the rest of the league, but rather to compare players to themselves at 24, 25 etc. (And you'd probably want to restrict the study to guys who were regulars at both ages in question. BB-ref only has reliable by count data going back to 2000, (I've got it going back to the late 80s, but I'm not going to do the data entry required -- it's in various books) but that still should be adequate. On a somewhat related note, a study on young players and the development of power in this year's Hardball Times annual explicitly says that a young player's K rate has not impact on his development of power. Did not however address how K rate changes by age. There was a correlation between K rate and isolated power (SLG-BA), but as the study author noted, that may be selection bias. IE teams may well choose to accept high K rates more readily from players with power. |