Adam Dunn
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From: Steve M. Mann on 5 Jun 2007 14:18 On 6/5/2007 12:17 PM, Ron Johnson wrote: [...] > About 30 years ago Steve Mann broke down the various > offensive events into their run and rbi components. I did no such thing. I was still learning to drive at the time and underachieving in Math classes. -- Steve ............................... P R O J E C T - 4 3 http://www.myspace.com/p43 http://www.project-43.com/ ............................... Get your "Silence the Quiet" CD! http://www.cdbaby.com/cd/project43
From: RJA on 5 Jun 2007 18:40 "Ron Johnson" <johnson(a)ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca> wrote in message news:1181063842.742581.296740(a)i13g2000prf.googlegroups.com... > On Jun 5, 9:28 am, Kevin McClave <kmccl...(a)SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote: >> On Mon, 04 Jun 2007 23:35:07 -0700, coachros...(a)hotmail.com wrote: >> >On Jun 3, 10:16 pm, Kevin McClave <kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> >> >wrote: >> >> On Sun, 3 Jun 2007 20:56:03 -0400, "RJA" <r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> >> >> wrote: >> >> >"Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote in message >> >> >news:7pj6631174r0bl1i9oe0glha2pvfas2php(a)4ax.com... >> >> >> On Sun, 03 Jun 2007 19:01:16 -0400, John Kasupski <kc2...(a)wzrd.com> >> >> >> wrote: >> >> >> >>>On Sun, 03 Jun 2007 15:16:15 -0400, Kevin McClave >> >> >>><kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote: >> >> >> >>>>Guys are going to get on base at a 40% clip if >> >> >>>>they're the best. That was a given in my point. >> >> >> >>>They're not going to get on base at a 40% clip by keeping the bat >> >> >>>on >> >> >>>their shoulders. >> >> >> >> Hey, think what you want. >> >> >> >Here's what we can agree on. Across the board, it evens out because >> >> >most >> >> >on-base situations are runner on first situations. However, many of >> >> >the >> >> >remaining situations dictate that contact is better than a K. Are we >> >> >all on >> >> >the same page then? >> >> >> I wouldn't say that, if by the remaining situations you mean the men >> >> on >> >> and the number of outs (and not the result of the AB). >> >> >> I would say contact could be better than a K, or even should be if you >> >> prefer, but a popup isn't any better than a K in most situations and a >> >> lineout DP is worse. >> >> >> I can assume the response would be that a popup has the chance to drop >> >> in >> >> where a K does not, but therein lies the entire point of this >> >> discussion...that the times that happens are so infrequent that they >> >> make >> >> no significant difference in the long run. Could one of those drop in >> >> popups win a game? Sure, but so could the lack of a CS at a crucial >> >> time >> >> or a guy not taking an extra base because he didn't get a good >> >> secondary >> >> lead. However, the K stigma seems out of proportion to those other >> >> things, >> >> even though, as the other guys have tried to quantify here, it isn't >> >> anymore damaging than the any number of the other possibilities.. >> >> >I'll agree that a pop-up has the same effect as a strikeout. >> >> Then that right there negates your earlier claim that contact is always >> better than a K. >> >> > If we are >> >continuing to talk about Adam Dunn , and in addtion to his 200-plus >> >strikeouts, which have a negative effect offensively on his team, >> >> Except that they don't. It's traditional wisdom that isn't true. It's >> been proven and the other guys have shown you numerous examples you >> could check (I choose not to because it makes my head hurt, but I trust >> what Ron and Dan say...if you don't, that's cool, you can "look it up" >> as they say). >> >> I'd only ask if you want to continue disagreeing with the truckload of >> evidence to the contrary, that you provide at least something to prove >> your own opinion. repeating the same old chestnuts over and over and >> over again doesn't prove anything, and it certainly isn't very >> enlightening for anyone. >> >> >as I have been trying to explain, he ALSO has a large number of pop-ups, >> >I admit I am WRONG in my opinion that he should bat in the 6 hole. I >> >change my mind. Move him into the 8 hole instead! >> >> I thought Dan's explanation of why Adam should be batting second made >> perfect sense and would accentuate Dunn's positives more than any other >> slot in the lineup...assuming we had a solid leadoff and third and >> fourth place hitters. There are just two few offensive weapons on this >> team to get the full benefit of Dunn in the 2 hole. > > About 30 years ago Steve Mann broke down the various > offensive events into their run and rbi components. > > Method for the few who care. > > (((BB*.25)+(HBP*.29)+(1B*.51)+(2B*.82)+(3B*1.38)+(HR*2.63)+ > (SB*.15)-(CS*.28))*.52)+(.008*(AB+BB+HBP))+((3*(AB+BB+HBP)/6200)* > (1000*(OBP-.330))) > > As I said, a mess. I've probably got redundant brackets or one > missing. > > Here's an example - Eric Davis 1987 > > (The second last column is run value -- IE a single is worth .28 > runs scored and .23 rbi) > > # value total runs rbi > BB 84 .25 21.00 20.16 .84 .24 .01 > HB 1 .29 .29 .28 .01 .28 .01 > 1B 75 .51 38.25 21.00 17.25 .28 .23 > 2B 23 .82 18.86 8.51 10.35 .37 .45 > 3B 4 1.37 5.48 2.44 3.04 .61 .76 > HR 37 2.63 97.31 37.00 60.31 1.00 1.63 > SB 50 .15 7.50 7.50 .00 .15 .00 > CS 6 -.28 -1.68 -1.68 .00 -.28 .00 > > OBA .399 18.76 > PA 562 4.50 > 120.50 95.21 91.80 .51 > > Basicly he contributed 95 runs and 92 rbi. His excellent OBP > gave other hitters a chance to contibute 19 net runs (ie runs > or rbi) and 4.5 runs for general health. (Mann found that he could > for a small portion of runs and used what he called a garbage > constant) Roughly 51% of his value was in run scoring. Nothing > terribly unusual and therfore no particular reason to think that > runs created would under-value him. > > (A player's actual RBI total is actually a function of power and > opportunity and can be radically different from the number > Mann's formula predicts. Similarly a player's run total is > profoundly influenced by the guys batting after him) So in the case of a 1985 Tommy Herr, we attribute the 110 RBI to opportunity mostly, rather than power, right? IIRC he had 8 home runs, but Coleman and McGee were pretty much in scoring position half the time that he came to the plate. > Of the two regulars only Freel and Hatteburg rate to be > substantially better at run scoring than at driving runs in. > > About 51% of Dunn's value comes in runs scored. > > I don't advocate using Mann's method. It's similar in > concept to Pete Palmer's linear weights (no surprise, > Palmer helped Mann solve some problems. Mann's initial > efforts in addition to being a mess _didn't work_) > but slightly less accurate (No surprise, Palmer adjusts > after the fact for league offensive levels. Bill James > calls this a cheat) or Jim Furtado's extrapolated > runs (and Furtado's method is more accurate and less > work) > > What I like about the method though is that it gives > a chance to identify players who might be under-rated > by more conventional metrics. In particular, high OBP > guys batting leadoff are generally underrated. No > biggie. 5 runs at the extreme. > >
From: RJA on 5 Jun 2007 18:58 <coachrose13(a)hotmail.com> wrote in message news:1181024861.857624.54140(a)g4g2000hsf.googlegroups.com... > On Jun 3, 6:29 pm, Dan Szymborski <d...(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote: >> In article <me7563p96eetukt0eutv8147jmtqau9...(a)4ax.com>, >> kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com says... >> >> > On Sun, 03 Jun 2007 00:10:28 -0700, coachros...(a)hotmail.com wrote: >> >> > >traditional wisdom is almost always correct. >> >> > That's simply not true. >> >> I totally believe that bloodletting is a great source of medicine and a >> heavier-than-air vehicle cannot fly. >> >> -- >> Dan Szymborski >> d...(a)baseballprimer.REMOVE.com >> >> "A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is >> not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good." >> - Robert Schumann > > And I continue to believe that hitting a baseball is better than not > hitting it! Again, it depends on the situation but it evens out because most of the on-base situations have a runner on 1st. This isn't rocket science. On the other hand, when Dunn makes contact, he gets a hit 38% of the time. That's not reasonable because everyone strikes out some. But I still believe that if he could cut his Ks down from abysmally ridiculous (currently 39% of the time) to just ridiculous (33% and also career), he would raise his numbers significantly. Right now that would equal a .276 average instead of .255 at a rate of 38% hits per making contact. Where I disagree here is that the reduction in Ks comes at a cost. Asking him to strike out at the career clip (which is still terrible) rather than 39% isn't asking a whole lot.
From: Ron Johnson on 5 Jun 2007 20:23 On Jun 5, 2:18 pm, "Steve M. Mann" <rockerm...(a)LOOSEITsteve-mann.com> wrote: > On 6/5/2007 12:17 PM, Ron Johnson wrote: > > [...] > > > About 30 years ago Steve Mann broke down the various > > offensive events into their run and rbi components. > > I did no such thing. I was still learning to drive at the time and > underachieving in Math classes. If you become a card-carrying stathead you'll be asked to get a professional name.
From: Ron Johnson on 5 Jun 2007 20:44
On Jun 5, 6:40 pm, "RJA" <r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: > "Ron Johnson" <john...(a)ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca> wrote in message > > > (A player's actual RBI total is actually a function of power and > > opportunity and can be radically different from the number > > Mann's formula predicts. Similarly a player's run total is > > profoundly influenced by the guys batting after him) > > So in the case of a 1985 Tommy Herr, we attribute the 110 RBI to opportunity > mostly, rather than power, right? Mostly. Given a typical distribution of baserunners you'd have expected about 75 RBI from a guy with his BA and isolated power (SLG-BA) > IIRC he had 8 home runs, but Coleman and > McGee were pretty much in scoring position half the time that he came to the > plate. 185 AB with RISP. That's a lot. He wasn't awesome with RISP either. ..335/.409/.454 62 hits, 2 bases loaded walks and 13 sac flies produced 98 of his RBI. That's really unusual. Most people think a single with RISP is an RBI, but a fairly high percentage of the time (I think Dan has a more recent breakdown, but I know about 1/3 of the time on a single to left or right a runner on second won't score. |