Adam Dunn
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From: coachrose13 on 5 Jun 2007 02:14 On Jun 3, 6:53 am, Kevin McClave <kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote: > On Sun, 03 Jun 2007 00:22:48 -0700, coachros...(a)hotmail.com wrote: > >On Jun 1, 9:54 am, David Short <David.no.Sh...(a)Spam.Wright.Please.edu> > >wrote: > >> coachros...(a)hotmail.com wrote: > >> > On May 31, 6:02 pm, Ron Johnson <john...(a)ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca> wrote: > >> >> Put simply, if Ks were important in modelling team runs > >> >> scored, our models wouldn't work. There's no room for > >> >> Ks to matter more than a couple of runs per team per > >> >> year. > > >> > MODELING??? I thought teams were actually trying to score runs. K's > >> > only cost a team a couple of runs a year, huh? Stay with your fanasty > >> > league all you want; I'll watch real baseball where it is ALWAYS more > >> > important to put the ball in play than not. > > >> This is one of the fundamental chasm's that sabremetrics cannot cross. > > >> There are people who do not believe in math. They do not understand it. > >> They don't know what it does. When the math doesn't fit what they think > >> they know, it MUST be the math is wrong. > > >> dfs > > >I believe in math, I really do. I also believe that a baseball team > >hitting the ball by the defense, running the bases well, and not > >making three outs are what scores runs, not MATH! I believe one and > >one equals two. I believe Hank Aaron has 755 home runs. I believe Pete > >Rose hit .348 in 1969. Why? Well in the case of Rose and Aaron, they > >did it on the field with baseball abilities, not because math said so. > >All math does is tell how a team or player performed AFTER THE FACT! > > Do you think it was a good idea for the Reds to re-sign Aaron Harang to a > long term deal, avoiding arbitration last off-season? If you do, why? > > ****************************************************************** > Kevin McClave > > "To justify himself, each relies on > the other's crime." ~Albert Camus > ******************************************************************- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - My gut instinct is, yes, because for reasons this "out-classed" baseball fan cannot understand, when Harang takes the mound, it seems the Reds often win their ball games. Just to be sure, however, I'll ask BIll James. Maybe he has invented a new stat to explain it, maybe he'll call it the WHPTRUW (When Harang pitches, the Reds usuallly win).
From: coachrose13 on 5 Jun 2007 02:15 On Jun 3, 6:54 am, Kevin McClave <kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote: > On Sun, 03 Jun 2007 00:10:28 -0700, coachros...(a)hotmail.com wrote: > >traditional wisdom is almost always correct. > > That's simply not true. > > ****************************************************************** > Kevin McClave > > "To justify himself, each relies on > the other's crime." ~Albert Camus > ****************************************************************** Why? Because you say so?
From: coachrose13 on 5 Jun 2007 02:24 On Jun 3, 7:06 am, Kevin McClave <kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote: > On Thu, 31 May 2007 23:50:07 -0700, coachros...(a)hotmail.com wrote: > >EXACTLY! When you have Dunn at the plate, either with runners on or > >not, you are far more likely to get a K than anything else, whether it > >be a home run, base hit, walk, or even the dreaded "productive out" > > The fact of the matter is that even the *best* players make an out of some > sort *60%* of the time. > > What I think has been trying to be explained in this thread is that the > effect of the way in which those outs are made (K vs. flyout vs. > groundout) is *so* small as to be almost insignificant. > I fully understand what is trying to be explained in this thread, and how sabermaths are often used to prove their point. I dont have stats to back up my assertion (other than having watched, played, and coached 1000's of games over my lifetime) that HITTING a ball is better than NOT HITTING IT! Especiallly in close games, late in the game, and the post season. > It doesn't matter to any large degree if someone Ks or grounds out or > flies out in their 60% (or higher for most players) of outs. > LARGE degrees are not important in a professional league where in theory, everyone is at least CLOSE to being equal. When everything else is equal, small degrees will make BIG differences. > Are there individual instances where a certain type of out is preferable? > Sure, but what's been trying to be articulated here is that it balances > out over the long haul...for every K with a runner on third, there a > grounder to 2B with a runner on 1B for a tailor made DP...as someone > pointed out, man on first is a much more common occurrences. > > ****************************************************************** > Kevin McClave > > "To justify himself, each relies on > the other's crime." ~Albert Camus > ******************************************************************
From: coachrose13 on 5 Jun 2007 02:27 On Jun 3, 6:29 pm, Dan Szymborski <d...(a)baseballprimer.com> wrote: > In article <me7563p96eetukt0eutv8147jmtqau9...(a)4ax.com>, > kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com says... > > > On Sun, 03 Jun 2007 00:10:28 -0700, coachros...(a)hotmail.com wrote: > > > >traditional wisdom is almost always correct. > > > That's simply not true. > > I totally believe that bloodletting is a great source of medicine and a > heavier-than-air vehicle cannot fly. > > -- > Dan Szymborski > d...(a)baseballprimer.REMOVE.com > > "A critic who refuses to attack what is bad is > not a whole-hearted supporter of what is good." > - Robert Schumann And I continue to believe that hitting a baseball is better than not hitting it!
From: coachrose13 on 5 Jun 2007 02:35
On Jun 3, 10:16 pm, Kevin McClave <kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote: > On Sun, 3 Jun 2007 20:56:03 -0400, "RJA" <r...(a)nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote: > >"Kevin McClave" <kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote in message > >news:7pj6631174r0bl1i9oe0glha2pvfas2php(a)4ax.com... > >> On Sun, 03 Jun 2007 19:01:16 -0400, John Kasupski <kc2...(a)wzrd.com> wrote: > > >>>On Sun, 03 Jun 2007 15:16:15 -0400, Kevin McClave > >>><kmcclaveS...(a)SUCKStwcny.rr.com> wrote: > > >>>>Guys are going to get on base at a 40% clip if > >>>>they're the best. That was a given in my point. > > >>>They're not going to get on base at a 40% clip by keeping the bat on > >>>their shoulders. > > >> Hey, think what you want. > > >Here's what we can agree on. Across the board, it evens out because most > >on-base situations are runner on first situations. However, many of the > >remaining situations dictate that contact is better than a K. Are we all on > >the same page then? > > I wouldn't say that, if by the remaining situations you mean the men on > and the number of outs (and not the result of the AB). > > I would say contact could be better than a K, or even should be if you > prefer, but a popup isn't any better than a K in most situations and a > lineout DP is worse. > > I can assume the response would be that a popup has the chance to drop in > where a K does not, but therein lies the entire point of this > discussion...that the times that happens are so infrequent that they make > no significant difference in the long run. Could one of those drop in > popups win a game? Sure, but so could the lack of a CS at a crucial time > or a guy not taking an extra base because he didn't get a good secondary > lead. However, the K stigma seems out of proportion to those other things, > even though, as the other guys have tried to quantify here, it isn't > anymore damaging than the any number of the other possibilities.. > > ****************************************************************** > Kevin McClave > > "To justify himself, each relies on > the other's crime." ~Albert Camus > ******************************************************************- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - I'll agree that a pop-up has the same effect as a strikeout. If we are continuing to talk about Adam Dunn , and in addtion to his 200-plus strikeouts, which have a negative effect offensively on his team, as I have been trying to explain, he ALSO has a large number of pop-ups, I admit I am WRONG in my opinion that he should bat in the 6 hole. I change my mind. Move him into the 8 hole instead! |