From: Kevin McClave on
On Mon, 21 Sep 2009 18:23:13 -0400, "Bob Braun" <oxinfla(a)hotmail.com>
wrote:

>
>"john smith" <eddygdvd(a)msn.com> wrote in message
>news:10001-4AB7EF89-1860(a)baytvnwsxa001.msntv.msn.com...
>>I wish people would stop saying Darnell Macdonald was your opening day
>> centerfielder like he was the guy who was going to start a majority of
>> the games. No, Taveras had the flu and MacDonald was their to sub. The
>> reason he was on the roster was he was going to be a part-time player
>> and not warrant a whole lot of at bats. The management obviously wanted
>> Gomes to get at-bats, That is why he went south.....But then again Gomes
>> could have walked and not accepted the AAA demotion. Management is
>> horrible!!
>>
>> We all knew at the time this was the most idiotic move the team could
>> make but hey it is the Reds we are talking about here.....
>>
>> As far as Adam Dunn is concerned his nickname should be the "GHOST". He
>> seems to disappear and reappear off and on in a line up over the course
>> of a season. But I just think he disappears more often then he does
>> appear. He can carry a team for 2 weeks but then be invisible for 6
>> weeks. His swing can be downright ugly. I don't think you can ever count
>> on him for a big hit against a premiere closer. Sure he is a freak, but
>> he is a player who signed for 40 percent less for what he was making
>> with the Reds after averaging 40 homers a year. Man, them other GMS must
>> have been really stupid?
>>
>> John K don't you know your not entitled to an opinion. Twenty-Nine other
>> General Managers and you must be really dumb. Come on John, say yes we
>> can, yes we can.You have to believe in Adam Dunn. The Reds would have
>> been a playoff team with him. You have to realize that OBP percentage of
>> Adam Dunn makes him a Hall Of Famer. He really is a difference maker, he
>> turns mediocre teams into playoff teams. He adds those certain
>> intangibles like leadership, hustle and a winning attitude to every team
>> he has played on. His base running and defense are stellar weapons! We
>> all have must have missed these great attributes on Sir Adam...
>>
>> Question for all the Dunn supporters if he hits 600 homeruns in his
>> career, and hits .260 career wise. and never wins a playoff game. Is he
>> a Hall Of Famer?...Why does Dunn's homeruns never really turn into big
>> RBI numbers? If he hits 40+ homers a year, I always thought 125 RBIS
>> plus should follow? Dunn always just barely gets 100?
>
>I'm not a Dunn supporter. I'm an offense supporter. I have NEVER once said
>that anyone is not entitled to an opinion!
>
>Zuke and I were on polar opposites yesterday on Doc Rodgers. I don't
>disrespect his opinion at all. Nor did I feel any disrespect from his
>disagreement.
>
>If we all agree on every point concerning the Reds, what the hell is the use
>of having a discussion group?

And that is *precisely* the point. If I went around arguing here that I
loved Dunn as a player because he "typically" hits .300 and isn't a
strikeout risk, how valuable is my opinion of him to others? While the
numbers in question aren't that front and center, that is *exactly* what
John K. has done in arguments about Dunn, Beane and others. We aren't
talking about things that are concluded, we are talking about things
that actually happened.

>Back to Dunn.................Ghost? Disappear? How do you disappear and
>maintain .400 + OBP??

Bad Adam Dunn is still useful offensively because he hardly ever
plummets in OBP.

>Now the fodder will be...........look at September! If we hadn't had those
>damned injuries in the middle of the season, this would be a winning ball
>club!

Yup!

*********************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"Fear not the path of truth for the lack of
people walking on it." ~Robert F. Kennedy
*********************************************************************
From: Ron Johnson on
On Sep 21, 6:56 pm, HTP <tmbowma...(a)yahoo.com> wrote:
> There are reasons why
> hitters dont drive in the runs our algorithms predict.

Maybe *your* algorithms. Mine work unusually well with
Mantle. 97% correlation between estimated RBI and actual.

RBI are fairly easy to model crudely at the seasonal
level. They're a fairly predictable function of
power (most simply represented by SLG -- though
I break things down into BA and ISO in my estimator)
and opportunity (most simply represented by at
bats with runners on. Tom Ruanne has a far more
precise estimator and he uses actual distribution
of baserunners. I've discovered that the primary
source of error in my simplistic model is the
baserunner distribution)

Dunn's not quite as good but still comes in
with a 94% correlation -- and with 773 career
RBI compared to 791 predicted. (or just
under 2 rbi a year. Mantle averaged about 1.8 rbi
a year short of estimates)

What John misses is something Steve Mann discovered
decades ago. By simply not consuming outs Mantle (and
Dunn) create opportunities for others to pick
up counter stats.


From: john smith on
There is no right and wrong in regard to the Adam Dunn argument. There
will always be defenders and contrarians to any player.

I really wish people would stop getting ugly in here with all the
personal attacks. The ticky tack back and forth nonsense reminds of a
couple of fifth graders arguing with one another. This nonsense is just
going nowhere...

Nobody is going to change another persons mind in here with any stats
or any other thing for that matter. I repeat it just gets downright
ugly...

Who really cares about Adam Dunn? Does he put food on your table? Does
he get sad when your diagnosed with some bad disease?Is he vital to your
national security?Does he even know you exist?

Sometimes we have to step back and take a deep breath and remind are
selves what is important in life?

Yes it is fun to have the distractions of sports in our lives but we
must prioritize and realize that sports and players are not worth
arguing about to the point of getting yourself all worked up. These
players couldn't care less about this newsgroup or anybody who posts
here...

Everybody just take a step back and let us put behind us all this ugly
fighting and just have fun talking sports. Let us all always respect
each other no matter how idiotic you might think think the other guy's
opinion is. Nobody in here is GOD!

From: David Short on
john smith wrote:
> I really wish people would stop getting ugly in here with all the
> personal attacks. The ticky tack back and forth nonsense reminds of a
> couple of fifth graders arguing with one another. This nonsense is just
> going nowhere...

yup.

dfs
From: Kevin McClave on
On Tue, 22 Sep 2009 13:34:32 -0400, David Short
<David.no.Short(a)Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:

>john smith wrote:
>> I really wish people would stop getting ugly in here with all the
>> personal attacks. The ticky tack back and forth nonsense reminds of a
>> couple of fifth graders arguing with one another. This nonsense is just
>> going nowhere...
>
>yup.

Sorry, David. It's a well worn truth that you have a lot more patience
than I do.

*********************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"Fear not the path of truth for the lack of
people walking on it." ~Robert F. Kennedy
*********************************************************************
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